Warriors-Rockets G7: Preview, Odds & Prop Picks

Reuters

04-05-2025

May 4 - The critical junctures during which the Houston Rockets stumbled in this Western Conference first-round series were routinely and rightfully chalked up to their collective playoff inexperience.
But as the series extended, the Rockets settled in. A blowout victory at home in Game 5 shifted the series back to the Bay Area, and when the Golden State Warriors -- and not the Rockets -- came apart down the stretch in Game 6, it showcased just how far Houston has come in a short period.
The Rockets' 115-107 victory on Friday evened the best-of-seven series and set the stage for Game 7 at 8:30 p.m. ET in Houston on Sunday. The Rockets turned an 86-84 lead entering the fourth quarter into a 17-point cushion with 4:40 left and confirmed that they were no longer nervous.
"Obviously, Game 1 was full of jitters," said veteran Rockets guard Fred VanVleet, who posted 29 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in Game 6. "Game 3 was similar being on the road for the first time. Once you get that initial shock out of the way, being able to settle in and play basketball the way we've played all year and we have been one of the better teams all year. Just being able to execute and play our game at a high enough level."
THE ODDS
The Rockets were a consensus 2.0-point favorite as of mid-day Sunday. However, the line was holding at 2.5 at both DraftKings and BetMGM, where the Warriors had drawn 64 percent of the spread-line money while the total bets were nearly split.
The Over on the low 205.5 total points line was among the most popular plays, drawing 92 percent of the money and 87 percent of the total bets since opening at 200.5.
PROP PICKS
--Fred VanVleet Under 17.5 Points (-115 at BetMGM): The Rockets' guard has averaged 19.0 points through the first six games of the series, and has been instrumental in Houston staying alive with 26 and 29 points in the past two games. However, VanVleet averaged only 11.3 points through the first three games of the series.
--Stephen Curry Over 20 Points (-575 at DraftKings): The payout here isn't enticing, but that hasn't stopped this from being the most bet NBA player prop at the book on Sunday. Curry is averaging 24.3 points through the first six games and is coming off a 29-point effort in Golden State's Game 6 loss. You can bet Curry isn't going down without his best fight.
THE NEWS
At first blush, the Warriors would appear to have the advantage on Sunday. Curry and Draymond Green have played in five Game 7s each, while Jimmy Butler has participated in four. VanVleet, Steven Adams and Dillon Brooks provide playoff mettle for the Rockets, but the remainder of their core will experience their first Game 7. Emotionally, the Rockets will have a steep hill to ascend.
To their benefit is a defensive might that hasn't vacated them in moments, good or bad.
"Defense travels, and our awareness and physicality has improved in the series," Rockets coach Ime Udoka said. "And in general, our young guys are not really fazed by things. They just continue to play through it. They have really good veterans that steady them at times."
Instead of shying away from the physical play, the Rockets have embraced it and put the Warriors on their heels. Golden State has one more chance to prove that experience matters.
"Just got to meet force with force, execute the game plan," Green said. "Everybody will be excited. It will be hyped in there. It will be loud. Then the game starts, and there's just basketball. You got to execute your game plan, stay the course."
THEY SAID IT
"Staying together will not be an issue. This team has been connected and has been through everything. There's no question the frustration (Friday) set in. I could see it -- the body language. We can't have that. We can't afford that in Game 7.
"We've got to stay tight whole way through. Like I said, I like our chances. I've seen what this group can do over the years. We've been in a lot of Game 7s, I believe, had a lot of success." --Warriors coach Steve Kerr