Norway Chess 2025: Can D Gukesh, Arjun Erigaisi beat Magnus Carlsen to the top spot? Scenarios explained

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14 hours ago

The 10th and final round of the 2025 Norway Chess gets underway on Friday with defending champion and world No 1 Magnus Carlsen, reigning world champion D Gukesh and No 2 Hikaru Nakamura among the chess stars fighting for the title. read more
While D Gukesh is in the fray to finish top of the 2025 Norway Chess standings, Arjun Erigaisi can finish second at best. Image credit: Michal Waluzstan, Norway Chess
One round is all that remains in the 13th edition of the Norway Chess, and the final day of the event is expected to witness a high-voltage showdown between defending champion Magnus Carlsen, D Gukesh and Hikaru Nakamura. It's been quite the topsy-turvy ride for everyone involved, including reigning world champion Gukesh who began his campaign with back-to-back defeats against Carlsen and fellow Indian Grandmaster Arjun Erigaisi but was back on track with a victory over Nakamura in Round 3.
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World champion Gukesh, who had turned 19 a day after his victory over Nakamura, would go on to defeat Carlsen in the sixth round, beating the world No 1 for the first time in his career. The game made headlines not just for Gukesh's superb turnaround from a losing position but also for Carlsen's reaction to the loss – angrily slamming his fist on the table that toppled the pieces on the board, taking his opponent and everyone else at the hall by surprise.
And despite admitting to being mentally affected by the loss to the point where he claims defending his title at the event will not matter to him any more, Carlsen continues to occupy the top spot on the standings, leading Gukesh by the barest of margins.
Gukesh has had a mixed run since being crowned the youngest world champion in chess history with his victory over Chinese Grandmaster Ding Liren in December; he had finished runner-up at the Tata Steel Chess in Wijk aan Zee, Netherlands at the start of the year after losing to compatriot R Praggnanandhaa in the tie-breaks, but would flop at the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour events in Weissenhaus and Paris that took place in February and April respectively.
Gukesh's struggle in the Freestyle format appeared to have shaken his confidence in the Classical format as well, with the Chennai lad struggling to make an impact at the Superbet Classic in Bucharest Romania.
Gukesh, however, appears to have regained his touch in Norway and has silenced his critics, who were beginning to doubt if he truly deserved the tag of 'world champion' and belonged among the sport's elite, with his victories over Carlsen, Nakamura and others.
Can Gukesh, or Arjun for that matter finish top of the standings after the conclusion of the final round on Friday?
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How Gukesh and Arjun can finish top of the 2025 Norway Chess standings
Gukesh currently has 14.5 points to his name after his victory over Chinese No 1 Wei Yi in the ninth round on Thursday, and is half-a-point behind Carlsen, who regained the top spot from Fabiano Caruana after defeating the American GM on the same day.
The only way Gukesh gets to win Norway Chess is if Carlsen fails to win his final game – either by losing or being held to a draw. Should Carlsen lose to Arjun in the final round, a draw will suffice for Gukesh even if he goes on to lose the Armageddon playoff against Caruana.
American GM Nakamura, however, isn't far behind on 13 points, and should he defeat Wei in Round 10, Gukesh will have no option but to win his last game.
The only other player with a distant chance of finishing at the top is Caruana, who is fourth in the standings with 12.5 points. Not only will he have to defeat Gukesh, he will also be hoping Carlsen loses his final game against Arjun and Hikaru doesn't collect more than 1.5 points out of the possible 3 against Wei.
Such a scenario will have Caruana finishing at the top with 15.5 points, half-a-point ahead of the second-placed Carlsen. There could also be a two-way tie between Gukesh and Arjun on 14.5 points for the third spot, which could even be a three-way tie if Hikaru pulls off an Armageddon victory.
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Wei, the lowest-ranked among all the players (No 8), is set to finish at the bottom of the standings regardless of his performance in the final round.