Exit poll shows Peter Dutton in danger of nuclear fallout in own seat of Dickson

Mercury

01-05-2025

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Peter Dutton is facing a battle of two fronts with the Opposition Leader in a fight for his own seat of Dickson based on a poll of real voters across the electorate north of Brisbane.
The exclusive exit poll of 200 early voters, conducted by The Courier-Mail on Thursday, came as Mr Dutton jetted in to Queensland in the dying days of the campaign to sandbag his seat - Queensland's most marginal.
It was the third visit to Dickson for Mr Dutton in the past five weeks, a move Labor, who audaciously started the campaign on the Opposition Leader's home turf, said proved he was worried.
But Mr Dutton waved away concerns he was at risk of losing the seat, saying it had always been marginal.
Mr Dutton has repeatedly noted the so-called 'one term curse' that has loomed large over his predecessors—of all political stripes—in the seat. In contrast he has held on to Dickson since 2001, though he goes into the May 3 poll with a wafer-thin margin of just 1.7 per cent.
And exit polling shows Mr Dutton could be ousted on Saturday if the swing holds, with Labor's Ali France sitting on a primary vote of 37.1 per cent—up 5.4 per cent since 2022.
Mr Dutton's primary vote of 35.1 per cent is 7 per cent down on his result in 2022.
The Climate 200-backed independent Ellie Smith is sitting on a primary vote of 10.9 per cent—ahead of the Greens-- with her preferences expected to decide who ultimately wins the seat.
A Labor strategist said Mr Dutton had turned on his local campaign effort, which 'shows he's worried'.
Mr Dutton is also the second biggest spending LNP candidate across the state according to Labor's digital advertising tracking—behind only Leichhardt's Jeremy Neal.
While Labor feels good about its chances the source conceded they were worried the Teal candidate Ms Smith could 'get in our way'—particularly as she's opted to run an open how to vote card rather than suggest where people should put their preferences.
The LNP have throughout the campaign maintained its internal polling shows Mr Dutton retaining Dickson, and that the race isn't as close as published polls claim.
Mr Dutton campaigned in his own seat on the first day of the campaign, returned in the middle, and in the final 72 hours of the race spent the morning at Bray Park for the Salvation Army Red Shield Appeal.
This despite campaign tradition dictating he will be back in Dickson on Saturday to lodge his vote.
He insisted the return to the electorate was to honour an annual commitment to attend the Red Shield Appeal.
'I do that every year and clear my diary,' he said.
Ann Hogan, 84 from Albany Creek, voted for Mr Dutton in Dickson as she felt the LNP were offereing a 'better alternative to fuel' and while she wasn't fond of nuclear power, believed it was inevitable.
'I don't like the dirty campaign Labor has run… I feel Mr Albanese has done nothing for the country…all he has done is spent money,' she said.
A number of voters who picked Ms France said they had seen her around the electorate a lot and noted her efforts during tropical cyclone Alfred to help those who had lost power.
Everton Hills resident Mathew Bishop, 58, said he had voted for Teal independent Ellie Smith because he was sick of the major parties and the 'slow train wreck' caused by the dominance of the Coalition and Labor.
Originally published as Exit poll shows Peter Dutton in danger of nuclear fallout in own seat of Dickson