Third of businesses planning further job cuts after national insurance hikes
A third of business owners have said they plan to cut more jobs after being hit by higher national insurance contributions (NICs) in April, according to new research.
Many companies have also suggested they will cut back hours, freeze pay and hike prices in order to help cover increased tax payments.
S&W's business owners sentiment survey revealed around 20% of those quizzed said they have already reduced their staff numbers as a 'direct result' of the NICs changes which came into effect in April.
Last year, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in her autumn budget that employers' NICs would rise from 13.8% to 15%, while the threshold at which firms would start paying also increased.
The increase came in at the same time as the jump in the national living wage and reduced business rates relief for some firms.
The survey found 33% of business owners said they were still planning further cuts to staff numbers after feeling the impact of the tax increase.
Firms said they were also looking to a series of other measures in order to offset the jump in their operating costs.
The survey of 500 UK business owners with turnovers of £5 million upwards also showed 46% of those surveyed said they were planning further price increases as a result.
Meanwhile, 35% of business owners said they planned to reduce staff hours and 29% said they were looking at freezing pay.
It comes as firms highlighted higher commodity and energy costs, as well as disruption from wider macroeconomic uncertainty.
Claire Burden, partner in consulting at S&W, said: 'Businesses face considerable challenges in the current economic climate and many owners are having to make difficult decisions to stay afloat.
'Given that salaries represent a considerable proportion of the overall cost base for most businesses, it is to be expected that many are looking closely at headcounts in response to the increased national insurance costs.'
Alex Simpson, partner in employer solutions at S&W, said: 'For most businesses, the extent of the employers' NIC change was a surprise.
'We anticipated an increase in the employers' rate, but the additional reduction to the earnings threshold was not expected and is expected to have a dramatic impact over time.'
A Government spokesman said: 'We are a pro-business government. We are protecting the smallest businesses from the employer national insurance rise, shielding 250,000 retail, hospitality and leisure business properties from paying full business rates and have capped corporation tax.
'We delivered a once-in-a-Parliament budget last year that took necessary decisions on tax to stabilise the public finances, including the NHS which has now seen waiting lists fall five months in a row.
'We are now focused on creating opportunities for businesses to compete and access the finance they need to scale, export and break into new markets.'
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Asit, Dollar Tree reported this morning, it turns out it's a tough time to sell goods that are manufactured in China and across the world. Adjusted profit during the second quarter, the CFO announced could be down as much as 45 to 50% compared to a year ago. Actually, some impressive numbers in terms of comp sales growth and more people coming into their stores. But this is what's getting the headline here for Dollar Tree. Is this just a tariff problem, or is there more to the story here? Asit Sharma: I think it's just a tariff problem, Ricky. Like you, I saw a lot to like in the report, net sales up 11% and that same store sales growth of over 5%. That's pretty strong in this environment when most consumers are pulling back a little on their spins. I thought the traffic flows looked good. The company is finally going to sell its family dollar division. 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They've been along with one of their rivals Dollar General, working on the movement of inventory and gradually just pulling those costs down, and they've also, like Dollar General, been pretty good at adding stores at this tremendous cadence. It's like quick service restaurants. When you buy into a chain like Chipoly, part of the math, why earnings rise is they keep adding locations, and Dollar Tree has that going forward. It'll be a bit leaner as it disposes of family dollar. I think it can win in this environment. Do I think this is going to be the greatest investment during this period? No, but it probably is a decent defensive idea. I wouldn't look down in my nose at it for that reason. Ricky Mulvey: It's not a stock that I own, but it's an interesting finger in the wind for the economy, as I look at a business like Dollar Tree. Asit Sharma: Totally. 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Now, in today's world, most retail investors are all stocks and hardly think about the bond market, and that's fine. But there is this other world where sovereign governments need to finance their operations like the US, those that have debt in excess of GDP, which you just mentioned Japan, which we talked about, is the poster child for having a lot of money that it owes against its ability to throw off value each year in the form of gross domestic product. The United States isn't quite yet a poster child, but man, we're trying to become one. We're trying to knock Tokyo off the wall in that regard. Why this matters is capital flows need to come into the US for us to have our assets inflate on multiple fronts for our borrowings to inflate so that we can pay our bills because we operate at a deficit for the capital flows to stay in the US and help stock prices increase as companies throw off earnings and folks want to invest, we still have to attract that capital into the country from other places. Just to focus on the bond side of the equation for a moment, I'm sure so many of our listeners have heard this preliminary argument before as the US becomes less of a stable place to invest. Investors really are tempted to avoid our bonds because they're perceived not as risk free anymore, our longest dated bonds, but maybe a little bit risky. We have to offer a higher interest rate to induce them to come to the US and let us borrow money, and that has follow on effects for everything. It also makes our stock markets less attractive. Now, I think moving forward, there's other interesting phenomenon that's emerging. The Wall Street Journal was talking about that just this morning, when our currency depreciates because of trade policies, that means that foreigners who buy our bonds they are losing in two ways. One, they have higher risk, and two, they are losing on the currency differential. The value of a US denominated debt obligation decreases because the dollar decreases. You have to hedge against that risk, and that costs money, making our bonds even less attractive. If we have this scenario for an extended period of time, then what you see is not only will everything be more expensive and the US run wider deficits, and our cost for long term borrowing go up like home mortgages or buying a car, but we'll see capital outflows out of the stock market, which will then affect stock investors because money will go chase safer havens countries that are better position vis via their economies and relatively lower valuations out there versus the United States, where BigTech has made our multiples look really extended, really expensive. Capital will chase cheaper markets. We're seeing a little bit of all of this in real time, but it's very slow motion right now, Ricky and my concern is that one day this thing just becomes a little bit of a snowball where it will be hard to quickly reverse the conditions we are in now. Ricky Mulvey: Well, I think you're seeing that with the spending bill that's going through Congress right now, and it is impossible to have this discussion without mentioning the existence of politics. But this budget being proposed is estimated to add, I think, more than I've seen, like estimates between like 2.5 to like $3 trillion to the deficit. That's on top of the deficit we already had. I think there was some expectation that we're going to start to see spending get clamped down in the United States and really start addressing the national debt. At least in the current version of this spending bill, that does not appear to be the case. What bond investors do is they demand higher yields for higher risk. This is why the 30 year US Treasury is now flirting with 5% yields. It's been flirting with that I think through the start of the year. That's not something that's really been going on since 2007. When you look at that Asit as an analyst, is that a big deal concern troll, what say you? Asit Sharma: I think it's a big deal, Ricky. The thing that I can't forecast is when kicking the can down the road reaches a wall, so the can is against the wall. If you kick it any further, you're just going to hurt your toe or break your foot. I think that day is coming. I think it's on the horizon. Now whether this is five years from today, 10 years from today, nobody knows. The US has a very dynamic economy, and it can improve itself a lot more quickly for such a big economy than you might think. But I don't know how many times we can pull that trick out of the hat before you have to pay the Piper, which is to say there's only so much appetite for sovereign debt in the world. Ricky Mulvey: You hear a lot of concern about the US, but still, this is where the biggest baddest companies in the world are. There's a lot of macro geopolitical concerns, no matter where you look in the world. I mean, we can talk about the concerns within our home country, but is US debt still that TNA? There is no alternative type investment if you're looking at debt and bonds. Asit Sharma: It still holds that role, and the reason is this, there is a market for sovereign government debt that's pretty huge. It's still a fraction of ours, but it looks attractive, and that is Euro denominated debt. Now, the issue with that is when you're buying those bonds, you're looking at various countries and those markets are only so big. Together, if you add up like Germany, Italy, Spain, all these very productive economies over in Europe, yeah, that number adds up to not anywhere near our market, but it's still substantial and can attract that capital away. But bond investors then are looking at each economy. Do I really want to invest in Italy's bonds, which at the end of the day they're also trying to v for that poster child place. There are only so many German bonds that global investors are going to be able to buy. There is some constraint of size in here, and I think the US is coasting on that for now, but politicians, are you listening? I bet you're asleep by now, because you always tune out when you know this is coming. Get your act together from both sides of the aisle. This has been going on not years now, but decades. We got to do something about this to enjoy the types of returns we have in the stock market for all those little domino effects that you and I just talked about in the last 10 minutes or so. Ricky Mulvey: Politicians, Congress people specifically, if you have stock ideas that you'd like to share with the show, our email is podcasts at Let's podcast with We'll leave it there. Asit Sharma, appreciate you being here. Thank you for your time and your insight. Asit Sharma: Thanks, Ricky. Ricky Mulvey: As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about in the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content, follows Motley Fool editorial standards and are not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. See our Fool advertising disclosure. Please check out our show notes. I'm Ricky Mulvey. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Asit Sharma has positions in Amazon and Dollar General. Ricky Mulvey has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, CrowdStrike, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. 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