Canada March retail sales rise 0.8%; seen up 0.5% in April
OTTAWA, May 23 (Reuters) - Canadian retail sales grew by 0.8% in March from February, more than analysts had forecast, and looked set to have increased by 0.5% in April, Statistics Canada data indicated on Friday.
The largest increase was the 4.8% gain posted by motor vehicle and parts dealers, the first rise in three months. Analysts suggested one reason was consumers rushing to buy cars before U.S. tariffs took effect in April.
Analysts had expected a 0.7% increase in March.
"Canadian consumers haven't tightened the purse strings much it seems in the face of tariff uncertainty," said Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets.
In March, sales were up in six of nine subsectors, representing 58.9% of retail trade. In volume terms, retail sales increased by 0.9%.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Thursday he expected second-quarter growth to be "quite a bit weaker" than the first quarter, and that it could be worse in subsequent quarters if the uncertainty around tariffs continued.
Currency swap market bets show odds of a 25 basis point rate cut in June at 32%, unchanged from before the data release.
"We still judge that the Bank will cut following the recent declines in private sector employment, but it will be a close call," said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
The central bank last month forecast annualized first-quarter GDP would be 1.8% but did not give any other projections, citing uncertainty over tariffs. Statistics Canada is due to issue first-quarter GDP data on May 30.
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Wednesday was one of those days, at least in equities. Wall Street rose for a third session, the Nasdaq climbed back into the green for the year, and global stocks rose to their highest level on record. Yet the newsflow was hardly bullish, although the nonpartisan U.S. Congressional Budget Office did lower its estimate of how much President Donald Trump's tax-cut and spending bill will add to the national debt by $1.4 trillion. On the trade front, the Trump administration doubled steel and aluminum tariffs, and it became clear that trade talks with Europe and China are proving difficult. The deadline for countries to show their "best offers" to avoid other punitive import levies taking effect next month passed on Wednesday too. China's decision in April to suspend exports of a wide range of rare earths continues to wreak havoc across crucial supply chains around the world, especially in the auto industry. Some European auto parts plants have suspended production. On the economic data front, the U.S. 'stagflation' alarm bells could not have rung louder on Wednesday. Figures showed U.S. private sector employment growth in May was the slowest in more than two years, perhaps an ominous signal for Friday's non-farm payroll report. Meanwhile, the services sector contracted in May for the first time in nearly a year and input prices paid by businesses leaped to their highest in two and a half years. If gold prices took their cue from the 'flation' side of those numbers, the bond market took its cue from the 'stag' side of the equation. Treasuries prices rallied strongly, and the 10-year yield posted its biggest fall since mid-April. Trump used the weak economic data to take to social media and repeat his call for Fed Chair Jerome 'Too Late' Powell to lower interest rates, complaining that "Europe" has already cut rates nine times. If he's referring to the European Central Bank, that's not quite accurate. 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The OECD said on Tuesday it expects collective annual headline inflation in G20 economies to moderate to 3.6% this year from 6.2% last year, cooling further in 2026 to 3.2%. But the United States is an "important exception," the OECD argues, and it sees inflation there rising to just under 4% later this year and remaining above target in 2026. While annual PCE consumer inflation in the U.S. cooled to 2.1% in April, the slowest rate in four years and virtually at the Fed's 2% target, consumer inflation expectations are the loftiest in decades. The Fed has paused its easing cycle as a result, and U.S. bond yields are higher than most of their G10 peers. Economists at Goldman Sachs share the OECD's view that U.S. inflation will pick up to near 4% this year, with tariffs accounting for around half of that. Many others also agree that the U.S. appears to be the exception, not the rule. The world's next two largest economies, China and the euro zone, find themselves trying to stave off disinflation. Deepening trade and financial ties between the two may only intensify these forces, keeping a lid on price increases. Annual inflation in the euro zone cooled to 1.9% in May, below the European Central Bank's 2% target, essentially setting the seal on another quarter-point rate cut later this week. More easing appears to be in the cards. As economists at Nomura point out, inflation swaps are priced for inflation undershooting the ECB's target for at least the next two years. This, combined with weakening growth due to U.S. tariffs and disinflationary pressure from China, could force the ECB to cut rates another 50 basis points to 1.5% by September. China's war on deflation is, of course, well-known to investors, but it has appeared to slip off their collective radar given how protracted it has become. The last time annual inflation in China eclipsed 1% was more than two years ago, and it has remained near zero, on average, ever since. China's 10-year bond yield remains anchored near January's record low below 1.60%, reflecting investors' skepticism that price pressures will accelerate any time soon. They have reason to be doubtful. Deflation and record-low bond yields continue to stalk the economy despite Beijing's fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts since September. And punitive tariffs on exports to the U.S., one of its largest export markets, are generating massive uncertainty about the country's economic outlook moving forward. This is where the exchange rate becomes important. On the face of it, Beijing appears to have resisted mounting pressure on the yuan thus far, with the onshore and offshore yuan last week trading near their strongest levels against the dollar since November. But when considering the yuan's broad real effective exchange rate (REER), an inflation-adjusted measure of its value against a basket of currencies, the Chinese currency is the weakest since 2012. Robin Brooks at The Brookings Institution reckons it may be undervalued by more than 10%. With China's goods so cheap in the global marketplace, China is essentially exporting deflation. And the yuan's relative weakness could put pressure on other Asian countries to weaken their currencies to keep them competitive, even as the Trump administration potentially encourages these governments to do the exact opposite. Countries in Asia and around the world, especially in the euro zone, may also be nervous that China could dump goods previously bound for the U.S. on their markets. If anyone wants confirmation that the "tariffs equal inflation" view is too simplistic, they got it this week from Switzerland, where deflation is back and potential negative interest rates may not be far behind. True, Trump's threatened tariffs could throw everything up in the air. But the Swiss example is a warning to markets and policymakers that global disinflationary forces may be spreading. What could move markets tomorrow? Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
