India Debuts New Weather Model to Help Farming, Flood Planning
The southwest monsoon's early arrival in India this year is good news for crops, but exactly when, where, and how much rain will fall over the next few months are still difficult questions to answer.
To help solve that dilemma, India is hoping that a new weather model can significantly help boost its capabilities by forecasting at a resolution of roughly 6 kilometers (3.7 miles), doubling the level of detail previously possible. That means it can zero in on smaller geographic areas and give more localized predictions, helping farmers tailor their decisions and enabling better flood preparation ahead of extreme rainfall events.
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Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Yahoo
Pinpoint Weather: Showers return, late-week storms possible
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Forbes
7 hours ago
- Forbes
The Rise Of Meteorologists
COLLEGE PARK, MD - JANUARY 21: Former National Weather Service Director Louis Uccellini speaks ... More during a news conference on a winter storm forecast January 21, 2016 at the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Maryland. A winter snowstorm is forecasted for the East Coast this weekend with prediction of up to 30 inches of snow for the DC area. (Photo by) This week my colleague John Morales went viral for going on the air to caution that cuts to the National Weather Service have made him less confident in his ability to warn the public about hurricanes. Miami-based Morales, who was trained at Cornell and Johns Hopkins University, is a colleague whom I have interacted with many times as a member and during my tenure as President of the American Meteorological Society. He is simply one of the most respected broadcast meteorologists within our field. His forward stance is not surprising, but meteorologists have been a hot topic in recent weeks. Let's talk about the rise of meteorologists. I don't mean to make that sound like some zombie apocalypse. Meteorologists have been around for decades. They work in the broadcast industry, National Weather Service and other government agencies, private companies, state organizations, and many other institutions. My sixth-grade science project shaped my life. After building weather instruments and taking observations in my hometown of Canton, Georgia, I knew that becoming a meteorologist was my destiny. For me, I was more interested in the 'hows and whys' of the field rather than forecasting or being on television. Most of my career has been spent at NASA and academia. Though my profession is far broader than broadcasters, that's what most people associate with the word 'meteorologist." In fact, I often receive the question, 'What channel are you on?' STERLING, VA-OCTOBER 1:Computer Tracking the Weather Balloon in Flight at National Weather Service ... 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More of his father's and step-mother's house, who lost their lives during the tornado in the neighborhood of Sunshine Hills on May 17, 2025 in London, Kentucky. A tornado struck communities in Somerset and London, Kentucky, leaving over 10 dead and more injured. (Photo by) Last week, meteorologist participated in a 100-hour, non-partisan marathon to share the value of weather research and federal resources. Like police or fire services, many colleagues on the livestream articulated that weather information, warnings, and life-saving guidance should be an accessible public good. The Forecast Watch blog noted earlier this year, 'For starters, the NWS costs the average tax-paying American $3-4 per year. That's about the cost of one cup of coffee. As of now, the NWS has a budget of around $1.38 billion, with around $102.1 billion returned in estimated public value. That's a whopping 73:1 return on investment.' All living former directors of the National Weather Service recently penned an open letter about the impact of cuts and the value of the agency. These colleagues, all of whom I know well, served Presidents from both sides of the aisle. They made the obvious points about staff reductions and the value of forecasts. However, they also pointed out the importance of radar technicians and other staff that keep our forecasts and warnings coming. Elbert 'Joe' Friday also touched on the importance of NOAA and other parts of the federal system that enable the work of NWS with data, research, and advanced technology. The two leading U.S. weather organizations, the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association have offered services, resources and support during these dynamic times. The American Geophysical Union has also been actively engaged on behalf of the weather, water, and climate enterprise. Earlier this week CNN reported that the NWS had been authorized to hire over 120 personnel to 'stabilize' operations. That certainly helps, but it is far below NWS numbers prior to January, which means reduced hours, staff shortages, and limited services are still likely. Morales went on to say, "Did you know that Central and South Florida National Weather Service offices are currently basically 20 to 40 percent understaffed? From Tampa to Key West, including the Miami office, 20 to 40 percent understaffed.' Florida is one region most likely to be hit by a strong hurricane. Major hurricane return periods. Morales is a scientist and a scholar, so I cringe when people in the broadcast profession are called 'weatherman.' For my female colleagues, the term 'weather girl' is even more offensive. These days most people delivering your forecasts are scientists with rigorous training in calculus, fluid dynamics, thermodynamics, atmospheric physics, and the other meteorological coursework. I emphasize this point because as meteorologists find their voices on all of our behalf, it is important to understand that they are well-trained professionals who understand the science, engage in risk communication, and care about the protection of life and property. As a tornadic storm or Category 5 hurricane approaches, I want to hear from trusted meteorologists not an app or AI. TODAY — Pictured: Angie Lassman on Thursday July 13, 2023 — (Photo by: Nathan Congleton/NBC via ... More Getty Images)
CNN
10 hours ago
- CNN
There's a ‘ghost hurricane' in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don't panic. It's the season's first 'ghost hurricane.' Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition. Unofficially dubbed 'ghost storms' or 'ghost hurricanes,' these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life. The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It's one of many used by forecasters around the world. All models have known biases or 'quirks' where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn't alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so. For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November. It's exactly what's been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that's why each can generate different results with similar data. The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe's ECMWF, Canada's CMC or the United Kingdom's UKM – is because that's exactly what it's programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center. The GFS was built with a 'weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,' according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it's more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it. Other models aren't built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don't show a tropical system until they're more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time. The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS' favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That's because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water. The combination of abundant moisture and spin in the atmosphere makes it a prime breeding ground for storms, especially early in and during the peak of hurricane season. Given the model's sensitivity, it's quick to pounce on these possible storms. But this sensitivity has an advantage: By highlighting almost anything that could become tropical, the GFS misses very few actual storms. Its tendency to cry wolf isn't ideal, but the GFS team found it was worth giving the model a higher chance at catching every storm and better predicting each one's intensity than to prioritize fewer false alarms, Bentley explained. 'It was critical to improve the probability of detection of tropical cyclone formation and tropical cyclone intensity forecasts… and we did achieve that,' Bentley said. During the 2024 hurricane season, the GFS had the least error when forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones – tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes – of any other global forecast models in its class: the ECMWF, the CMC and the UKM. However, the ECMWF and UKM outperformed the GFS in tropical track forecasts out more than five days in the future. Despite how often the GFS conjures ghost systems in its longer term forecasts, it can't be discounted. 'The crucial role of the forecaster is to understand a model's known biases and use that knowledge to their advantage to produce a better forecast,' Bentley said. Knowing the GFS latches onto anything that could even vaguely become tropical well in advance helps forecasters keep an eye on areas where conditions may ultimately come together to create the next hurricane. The more reliable solution for predicting tropical behavior more than a few days in advance is to take advantage of ensemble forecasting, according to Bentley. 'A deterministic model like the GFS produces one forecast at a time; it gives one answer,' Bentley explained. 'An ensemble forecast can show you a variety of possible outcomes, as well as which forecast looks like a possible outlier.' Unlike social media clickbait, no well thought out forecast is made from a single model run. Forecasters use everything at their disposal – deterministic and ensemble models, observations, climatology and more – to predict weather as accurately as possible to give people the time and information they need to stay safe. The National Hurricane Center, for example, typically uses a blend of different types of models to make their forecasts. That strategy, combined with extensive expertise, led to their most accurate track forecasts on record for the Atlantic last season.
