Africa has four strong Pope ranking contenders according to Gambling Nerd

Business Insider

13-05-2025

Will the Next Pope Come From Africa?
Despite Catholicism's explosive growth in the Global South, the College of Cardinals has yet to elect an African pope since the death of Pope Gelasius I in 496. But that could soon change. According to the latest odds from GamblingNerd.com, several African contenders are gaining traction as serious candidates to lead the Catholic Church. Here's a closer look at the frontrunners.
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of Congo)
Odds: +400
A Capuchin friar and Archbishop of Kinshasa, Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, is the most prominent African papal contender. Known for his passionate advocacy for social justice and the environment, he's emerged as a moral voice in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). According to GamblingNerd.com, Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from Congo is the top contender for becoming Pope in Africa. He is particularly respected for his vocal opposition to political repression and exploitation of natural resources. As noted by the OSV Catholic News Agency, "The church is concerned with the education and health of its people." His outspoken stance on issues from mining abuses to electoral integrity has made him a spiritual anchor in a volatile region.
Peter Turkson (Ghana)
Odds: +400
Hailing from Ghana, Cardinal Peter Turkson is a well-known figure within the Vatican. As the previous leader of the Vatican's Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, Cardinal Turkson played a key role in addressing major global concerns such as poverty, climate change, and migration, all core priorities of Pope Francis. He was even regarded as a potential successor to the papacy during the 2013 conclave. His intellectual pedigree, including a doctorate from the Pontifical Biblical Institute and his deep familiarity with Vatican machinery, make him a seasoned insider. Known for bridging traditional Catholic teaching with modern global concerns, Turkson has long advocated for ethical leadership. While he recently resigned from his Dicastery role, many observers see this not as a retreat but as a strategic repositioning.
Francis Arinze (Nigeria)
Odds: +900
Cardinal Francis Arinze, born November 1, 1932, in Eziowelle, Nigeria, is another respected African figure in papal discussions. Converting from traditional African religion to Catholicism at nine, he embarked on a path that would see him rise to prominent ecclesiastical positions. Ordained as a priest in 1958, Arinze became the Archbishop of Onitsha in 1967.​
Arinze was elevated to the College of Cardinals in 1985. From 1984 to 2002, he led the Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue, working to strengthen the Catholic Church's engagement with other faiths. He later became Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments, a position he maintained until his retirement in 2008. Known for his conservative theological stance, Cardinal Arinze has been considered a papabile, or potential pope, in previous conclaves. At 92 years old, while his age may be a factor, his extensive experience and respected status continue to make him a significant figure in discussions about the future leadership of the Catholic Church.
Robert Sarah (Guinea)
Odds: +900
Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea is among the most prominent African voices in the Catholic Church and one of its most traditional. He once led the Vatican office overseeing liturgical matters and is best known for his deep-rooted traditionalism. He has consistently advocated for preserving classical forms of worship, upholding priestly celibacy, and challenging progressive shifts within Church theology. A fierce critic of what he calls "gender ideology" and Western moral relativism, he has often positioned himself as a spiritual counterweight to more progressive leadership, including that of Pope Francis.
His global following, especially among traditionalist Catholics, sees him as a moral anchor in turbulent times. At 79, his age may be a factor, but his ideological clarity and global stature still make him a serious contender.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Who are the top African candidates for the papacy?
The four strongest African contenders for the papacy are Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Peter Turkson from Ghana, Francis Arinze from Nigeria, and Robert Sarah from Guinea. Each represents different aspects of African Catholicism, from activism to traditionalism.
What role does Africa play in the future of the Catholic Church?
Africa's role in Catholicism is rapidly growing. By 2060, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to house over 40% of the world's Catholics, making its political and spiritual perspectives more crucial in shaping the future of the Church.
How likely is an African pope?
As highlighted by Gambling Nerd, the odds of an African pope have been rising. The increasing prominence of African cardinals in discussions about papal succession reflects the Church's growing recognition of Catholicism's demographic and spiritual strength in Africa.
The Future of the Papacy May Be African
Africa's increasing visibility in papal succession discussions reflects broader demographic trends. The Pew Research Center projections indicate that by 2060, over 40% of the global Catholic population will reside in sub-Saharan Africa. This growth has made the continent's spiritual and political challenges central to global Catholicism. As Gambling Nerd's latest odds suggest, African papabili are no longer long shots. At a time when the Catholic Church grapples with 21st-century challenges, an African pope could bring both symbolic and substantive change.