Abigail Spanberger's Chances of Beating Republicans in Virginia—New Polls
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Former Representative Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, holds a lead over Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears in two new polls of the Virginia gubernatorial race released on Thursday.
Newsweek reached out to the Spanberger and Earle-Sears campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Virginia's gubernatorial election will be an early bellwether for Republicans about President Donald Trump's popularity ahead of the 2026 midterms. Historically, the party that lost the presidency is favored in the state's off-year elections, but the GOP is hoping Earle-Sears can deliver a victory following Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin's victory four years earlier.
The election will also test whether Democrats can win back key voter groups that shifted toward Republicans in the 2024 election, including Hispanic and Gen Z voters.
Old Dominion was once a Republican-leaning state, but suburban shifts and growth in the northern region of the state propelled it leftward over the past two decades. Last November, former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by less than six points, down from former President Joe Biden's 10-point win in 2020.
What to Know
Two new polls showed Spanberger, a centrist Democrat who served in Congress from 2019 to 2024, with a lead in the state's gubernatorial race.
Former Representative Abigail Spanberger speaks during an Everytown for Gun Safety rally in Alexandria, Virginia on April 10, 2025.
Former Representative Abigail Spanberger speaks during an Everytown for Gun Safety rally in Alexandria, Virginia on April 10, 2025.A Roanoke College poll, which surveyed 658 Virginians from May 12 to May 19, 2025, found Spanberger with a double-digit lead. Forty-three percent of respondents said they intend to vote for her in November, compared to only 26 percent who said they would vote for Earle-Sears.
Forty-one percent of Virginians view Spanberger favorably, compared to 40 percent who view her unfavorably, according to the survey. Meanwhile, 32 percent view Earle-Sears favorably, compared to 48 percent who view her unfavorably.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.25 percentage points.
The survey also found Governor Youngkin's favorability rating is at its worst ever. Fifty percent of respondents said they view him unfavorably, while 50 percent view him favorably, the poll found. Meanwhile, 64 percent of respondents viewed Trump unfavorably, while 33 percent view him favorably.
However, a poll commissioned by business advocacy group Virginia FREE and conducted by Pantheon/HarrisX pointed to a closer race.
That poll found Spanberger leading by only four points—52 percent of voters supporting her, and 48 percent backing Earle-Sears.
It found that 54 percent of Virginians approve of Youngkin, while 41 percent disapprove. Meanwhile, 56 percent disapprove of Trump, and 44 percent approve of him. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from May 9 to May 13, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Spanberger's lead is, in part, because she is "closer to the center of Virginia politics," Jeremy Mayer, associate professor at George Mason's Schar School of Policy and Government, told Newsweek.
"Republicans are going to try to paint her as far left from now until November. If they succeed, these numbers will get a lot tighter," he said.
Trump is also a "huge weight" on Virginia Republicans, he said, pointing to the administration's cut to the federal government. Many residents of Northern Virginia were employed by the federal government, so the cuts "resonate so strongly with many voters in a negative way that he is hurting the GOP brand," Mayer said.
Mayer noted that one point of concern for Democrats may be that Earle-Sears received 32 percent of Black voters in the Virginia FREE poll.
"If that continues, or intensifies, the Democrats could see this race slip away. So Spanberger needs to figure out a way to stop the bleeding of Black support away from the Democrats," he said.
What People Are Saying
Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for Roanoke College's Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, wrote in the poll write-up: "Six months in a gubernatorial election season is an eternity in politics, but one would prefer to be ahead by 17 points. More than a quarter of Virginians are undecided, and there is good news for both candidates. Spanberger is obviously leading at this point, and she leads among independents, but a large number of Republicans are undecided, and they will most likely end up voting for Earle-Sears. The favorable rating for Earle-Sears, however, should be cause for concern."
Mayer told Newsweek: "The biggest issue so far is Trump, whether the candidates want to acknowledge it or not. He is absorbing all the oxygen in American politics right now. Most Virginia gubernatorial elections are buffeted by national tides, but this year, those tides are closer to a tsunami. That could change—Trump could morph into a more normal president, the radical cuts and dramatic rise in tariffs could recede or retreat, but unless that happens, or some other statewide issue rises up, this will be a referendum on Trump more than anything."
What Happens Next
The Virginia gubernatorial election will be held on November 4, 2025. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as Lean Democratic, meaning it is "considered competitive" but that Democrats do have "an advantage."
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