Finally, an off-ramp. But will the Iran-Israel ceasefire last?

Indian Express

9 hours ago

Written by Rajeev Agarwal
A week is a long time in geopolitics and in West Asia, one night can be long enough. Overnight, the region oscillated between the threat of an all-out conflict as Iran fired missiles at a US military base in Qatar, to a sudden sense of hope and peace when Donald Trump announced on his social media handle late in the evening on June 23 that a ceasefire has been agreed upon between Israel and Iran.
However, for this ceasefire to happen, a face saving and an acceptable 'off ramp' was required for all the three parties in the conflict, that is, the US, Israel and Iran. While the US claimed that the B-2 bombers delivering the deep penetration GBU-57 bombs had inflicted massive damage to the Fordow nuclear enrichment site in Iran, Israel claimed victory by pushing back Iran's nuclear program sufficiently with strikes on its nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan and Arak. This, combined with the targeted assassination of top military leadership in Iran and many key nuclear scientists, gave them a perfect 'off ramp'.
Perhaps, the most difficult part was that for Iran. Aerial and missile strikes from Israel for over 10 days, huge losses to its air force and air defence, many missile launchers and depots destroyed, oil depots burnt, key military leadership eliminated and most importantly, the US strikes on Fordow, all this made it very difficult for Iran to agree to a ceasefire. However, with the well-orchestrated strikes on the Al Udeid Base of the US military in Qatar on June 23, combined with one last salvo of missiles into Israel in the early hours of June 24, gave something that Iran could sell as a victory back home. Also, Iran had consistently stated that the war was initiated by Israel and that it would cease firing if Israel does. Plus, on most accounts, the US strikes do not seem to have harmed the Fordow site in a way that was hoped by Israel and the US, giving Iran another brownie point.
Now that the ceasefire has been achieved, there are many questions to be answered. The biggest one is whether the ceasefire will hold. In the explosive and fragile politico-military situation that exists between Israel and Iran, nothing can be said for sure and the smallest of the triggers can unleash a fresh wave of strikes. It is unlikely that Iran would initiate any fresh strikes given the weak military position it finds itself in, but when it comes to Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu, one can never be sure. He can manufacture any reason to strike, even if his own intelligence agencies don't stand by the threat projections.
The second big question is tied to the reason for the commencement of the current conflict, the rapidly developing threat of Iran developing nuclear weapons. The key military objective emerging from it was the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear capability. Despite both US intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) clearly stating that Iran was nowhere near developing a nuclear weapon, Israel went ahead and bombed the nuclear sites and other infrastructure in Iran starting June 13.
It appears that Israel inflicted significant damage at Natanz, Isfahan and Arak putting them out of service for a long time. However, the enrichment plant at Fordow, buried 270-300 feet underground in a rocky mountainous area, was beyond its military capabilities. Having shaped the battlefield favourably and achieved complete air dominance, Israel then sought American help. The US finally obliged when the B-2 bombers delivered the payloads on June 21. Trump claimed absolute obliteration of the Fordow plant but the satellite imagery released later, tells a different story.
The success of the US bombing was based on an assumption that two or more GBU-57 bombs would create a hole deep enough in the plant, at 270-300 feet, and then explode. A GBU-57 bomb can penetrate up to 200 feet of the earth, drilling a pinhole about 32 inches wide (the diameter of the bomb) before exploding and creating a crater. Thus, to achieve the desired effect, two or more bombs would have to go through the same pinhole of 32 inches to reach the depth of 300 feet, technically an (almost) impossible task. The satellite imagery clearly showed two groups of three pinhole craters, each hole separated by a few feet at least. This implies that each bomb had individually drilled a hole, probably up to a maximum depth of 200 feet and then exploded. The rocky mountainous terrain would have made the task only harder. Resultantly, whether the combined effort of six GBU-57 bombs could reach the required depth of 270-300 feet, is a big question.
Satellite imagery also showed a long line of trucks departing Fordow on June 19 and 20, presumably evacuating key equipment and enriched uranium. Plus, the entry and exits to the plant were sealed, well before the bombs were dropped. Even initial reactions and assessments by the US and Israeli intelligence agencies indicated modest damage while Iran claimed that the bombs failed to achieve any effect.
If Fordow has survived and the nuclear material is safe somewhere, can it be claimed that the nuclear threat from Iran has been eliminated? At best, it has been pushed back by a few years. Plus, now it gives Iran legitimate reasons to not only withdraw from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) but also weaponise its nuclear programme.
The second and implied objective of the conflict was toppling of the Iranian regime. That has not happened either. In fact, the whole nation, which has been bitterly divided over regime policies, is now rallying together behind it. A fragile economy, a deeply divided society, wartime losses, the weakening of its proxies in the region (Hamas, Hezbollah), Bashar al-Assad being overthrown in Syria, the loss of key leaders and the old age of the Supreme Leader may have made the regime weak but there are no signs of regime change. Also, Ali Khamenei has reportedly nominated three clerics as his potential successors to ensure continuity of the regime.
The next big question is the Gaza War. Will the Iran-Israel ceasefire lead to a ceasefire in Gaza? Will Israel end its military campaign and withdraw forces from Gaza? Where does it leave Israel's unfinished business of eliminating Hamas? And of course, what about the future course of the Palestine issue? If none of these questions are answered, the region is back to June 12, a day before Israel launched its pre-emptive strikes into Iran.
The Israel-Iran conflict may have ended for now, but deep fissures in the relationship remain in place. Iran has been badly hit but its missiles striking deep into Israel have shocked Israel and the world. A fragile peace may prevail, but the nuclear weapons race may have just heated up, leading to a question of not if but when Iran will develop a bomb. Iran is like a wounded lion, retreating into the den to recuperate, planning its future kills. A wounded lion is always more dangerous than a roaring one.
The writer is a West Asia expert and a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, New Delhi. Views are personal