Bangladesh-Pakistan thaw putting the heat on India

Asia Times

23-04-2025

The virtual geopolitical map of South Asia is essentially being redrawn—not with sweeping declarations, but with quiet, deliberate strokes.
For decades, the bond between India and Bangladesh stood as a testament to shared history and hard-won liberation. But that solidarity, once assumed unshakable, is beginning to fray.
At the center of this shift stands Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, now leading Bangladesh's interim government. Under his watch, Dhaka is looking past the familiar embrace of New Delhi and extending a cautious hand toward an unlikely partner: Islamabad.
This is no mere diplomatic nicety. When Yunus met Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on the margins of the D-8 Summit in Egypt last year, it was the first public thaw in a long-frozen relationship.
That moment, barely noticed beyond foreign ministry press rooms, has since gathered momentum. The outreach to Beijing that followed—underscored by Yunus's high-profile visit and rumors of Chinese infrastructure creeping dangerously close to India's northeastern frontier—has only deepened New Delhi's unease.
For many of the Bangladeshis who grew up in the shadow of 1971, the image of a national leader shaking hands with a Pakistani counterpart is jarring. The Liberation War, marked by genocide and trauma, is not just a historical event—it is a national memory burned deep and bitterly into the Bangladeshi psyche.
Under the previous Bangladeshi leader, Sheikh Hasina, rapprochement with Pakistan was a red line.
Bangladesh, however, is signaling that it no longer views its foreign policy through a single lens. In a region where alliances are shifting and influence is up for grabs, Dhaka is playing a more unpredictable game.
And for India, long accustomed to viewing its neighbor as a diplomatic constant, the message is clear: nothing in South Asia is immutable—not even the past.
What's most revealing about the recent flurry of Bangladesh-Pakistan diplomatic and intelligence exchanges is not their substance but their stagecraft.
These are not backchannel overtures or discreet summits hidden from view. They're calculated public displays—photo ops paired with press releases—that are meant to speak volumes.
For Islamabad, long sidelined in South Asian geopolitics, this is a lifeline. It sees in Dhaka a new partner, and a chance to regain relevance in a neighborhood where it has steadily lost influence.
Economic incentives, defense cooperation and even shared interests in multilateral forums are all now on the table. And Pakistan is not wasting time.
Bangladesh's rationale, however, is less about rekindling old ties and more about widening the playing field. With India's regional dominance increasingly viewed through a lens of asymmetry and assertiveness, Dhaka is hedging.
The interim government, untethered from the emotional weight of political dynasties, is embracing a colder, more transactional diplomacy.
But this new pragmatism comes with risks. The memory of 1971—the genocide, the mass displacement, the war crimes—still hangs heavily over the national psyche. For millions of Bangladeshis, reconciliation is as much a matter of policy as it is a matter of principle.
Any move that even hints at absolution or amnesia risks igniting public outrage, especially among a younger generation that is both politically engaged and historically aware.
Whether this diplomatic thaw evolves into something lasting or fizzles under the weight of historical trauma remains to be seen. But what's certain is that the regional balance is shifting.
Bangladesh is no longer content to play the predictable junior partner in India's shadow. In this emerging post-Hasina landscape, the country is testing the boundaries of its autonomy, carving out space to redefine its alliances on its own terms.
The past came roaring back to center stage during the recent foreign secretary-level talks between Bangladesh and Pakistan—the first in over 15 years.
Held in Dhaka, the consultations were anything but routine. Bangladesh's demands were unapologetically direct: US$4.52 billion in reparations, including unpaid wartime dues and cyclone relief, and a long-overdue, unequivocal apology for the genocide of 1971.
That Islamabad has repeatedly dodged responsibility—offering only tepid expressions of 'regret' while sidestepping accountability—remains one of the most enduring fractures in South Asian diplomacy.
And while the interim administration may appear more willing to engage, these demands echo those made by every Awami League-led government before it. The message is clear: rapprochement cannot come at the expense of remembrance.
Yet, even as historical wounds remain open, Dhaka is diversifying its defense and diplomacy. Bangladesh's participation in Pakistan's AMAN-25 naval drills and its reported interest in Pakistan's JF-17 fighter jets mark a subtle but significant departure from its traditional military sourcing.
For many foreign policy hawks, the calculus is unmistakable—China may remain a dominant supplier, but strategic diversification is now a clear priority in Dhaka.
This recalibration also extends beyond the China-Pakistan axis. The recent visit of Bangladeshi Army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman to Moscow, alongside the arrival of Russian warships in Chittagong, underscores Bangladesh's intent to expand its security partnerships.
And the elevation of Khalilur Rahman—formerly the government's envoy on the Rohingya crisis—to the post of national security adviser signals a more assertive, regionally-focused strategic posture.
The stakes have only grown higher under intensifying American pressure. Washington's calls for stronger alignment on Myanmar policy add another layer of complexity to Dhaka's already delicate balancing act.
The challenge is not simply choosing allies but managing expectations while protecting sovereignty. Still, it would be a mistake to conflate Bangladesh's changing foreign policy with a betrayal of its foundational ideals.
The rejection of the Awami League's authoritarianism does not imply a rejection of the values forged in 1971—freedom, justice and sovereignty. These are not slogans for the history books; they are the aspirations of a new generation demanding dignity at home and credibility abroad.
New Delhi should take note. A political transition in Dhaka does not automatically translate into deference. If India expects loyalty without engagement, it is misreading the moment.
Bangladesh's foreign policy alignment is no longer a foregone conclusion. And the road ahead demands more than perfunctory summits or press releases: It calls for honest reckoning with history, with each other and with the regional realities of a fast-shifting world order.
Abu Jakir is a Dhaka-based journalist