War clouds gather over South Asia

New Indian Express

25-04-2025

There have been incipient signs of late that all is not quiet on the western front, as India and Pakistan marked the third anniversary of the ceasefire understanding of February 25, 2021 on the Line of Control (LoC) and other parts of the international border. True, the ceasefire never really meant any fundamental shift in Pakistan's state policy of sponsoring and waging a proxy war against India. Delhi, nonetheless, has been a stakeholder in the ceasefire agreement for as long as possible, even as its focus was on the Line of Actual Control with China. Pakistan, too, had its hands full, faced with a looming default crisis, internal security issues, and the deepening political instability that followed the overthrow of the Imran Khan government, which was masterminded by the military.
At any rate, the first major breach of the ceasefire agreement came on April 1, when Pakistan Army intruded into Indian territory and opened fire along the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir's Poonch district and our troops 'responded effectively in a controlled and calibrated manner' while reaffirming commitment to the ceasefire agreement. That was a deliberate attempt to undermine the remarkable stability that was achieved in the Kashmir zone since 2019 after the abrogation of Article 370 and reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir.
The surge in terrorist activities has been 'an issue of concern' for some time, to quote army chief General Manoj Pande. The south of the Pir Panjal range, which connects Kashmir Valley with Rajouri and Poonch via Mughal Road, has historically been a hotbed of militancy between 1997 and 2003. Hilly features, tough terrain, dense foliage and the prevalence of natural caves on Pir Panjal (where the army's footprint is lighter) make the region an attractive sanctuary for terrorists to carry out surprise attacks. Intelligence gathering is a big challenge, as the terrorists, mostly foreigners, avoid making contact with civilians and stick to guerrilla tactics, making it difficult for security forces to gather information about their movement. Possibly, the deployment of troops out of the region to Ladakh following the tensions with China emboldened the terrorists to move in. The hill station of Gulmarg lies in the Pir Panjal range.
That said, there is also the 'big picture' to be weighed in. The incursion on April 1 in Poonch sector, which was indeed a grave provocation by the Pakistani military, came in the downstream of the US administration's green-lighting of the extradition of Tahawwur Rana, a key plotter of the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, to India. It was on February 13, during a joint press conference with PM Narendra Modi, that President Donald Trump personally announced Rana's extradition to India. Can it be a coincidence that the terrorist strike on Pahalgam on April 22 coincided with the visit by Vice President J D Vance to India?
It must be a matter of exceptional concern to the General Headquarters of Pakistan Army in Rawalpindi that Delhi's policy of 'zero tolerance' toward terrorism is getting unprecedented support today under the stewardship of the FBI by Kash Patel and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Pakistan has put on a brave face and washed its hands of Rana, a Canadian citizen. But things are not as simple as that once he begins to narrate how the terror ecosystem operates in Pakistan under the direct supervision of the military leadership. These are early days.
Although the extradition treaty of 1997 stipulates India must ensure that Rana will not be tortured, will be provided adequate protection in prison, and will only be tried for the offences for which he has been extradited—limiting India's legal options—the fact remains that he has been under US detention for the past 16 years alongside David Headley.
A second aspect of immense relevance here collaterally is the belligerent outburst, out of the blue, by Pakistan's army chief General Asim Munir on April 17 during a diaspora event in Islamabad. At the meeting that was attended by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, senior ministers and Pakistani elites living abroad, Munir described Kashmir as Pakistan's 'jugular vein' and exhorted overseas Pakistanis to pass on the country's story to their children, emphasising their forefathers believed that Hindus and Muslims were different in every aspect of life. Can it be a coincidence that Munir's inflammatory rhetoric came against the backdrop of the current dissonance within India over the Waqf (Amendment) Act 2025, which is putting the spotlight on properties donated by Indian Muslims over centuries?
Third, it is both symbolic and consequential that the Kashmir issue figured in the talks between the foreign secretaries of Pakistan and Bangladesh in Dhaka on April 18, marking the resumption of such consultation after 15 years. According to the readout in Islamabad, Pakistan Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch took the initiative to brief the Bangladeshi side 'on the situation in India's illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir, emphasising the need for an early resolution of the dispute in accordance with UN Security Council resolutions and the aspirations of the Kashmiri people'.
Pakistan's Deputy PM and Foreign Minister, Muhammad Ishaq Dar, is due to visit Dhaka shortly. All indications are that a highly motivated axis is shaping up in the geopolitics of the region hostile towards India for the first time since the creation of Bangladesh. Interestingly, the Pakistani readout messaged that 'a shared commitment to a forward-looking partnership emerged' during the talks.
To be sure, the horrific event in Pahalgam will prompt an appropriate response. The Cabinet Committee on Security on Wednesday summarily expelled the military officials posted in the Pakistani embassy. That is the irreducible minimum under the circumstances, considering the precedents from yesteryears. Munir himself was director-general of ISI during the Pulwama terror attack and subsequent Balakot military crisis in February 2019. His incendiary remarks on April 17 can only be seen as a clarion call for 'jihad' in the valley.
Delhi should stop Munir in his tracks, no matter his frustrations—be it his failure to banish Imran Khan from domestic politics, crush dissent within the Pakistani military over his leadership, or earn 'peace dividends' from Afghanistan. A range of options must be available with the government.
M K Bhadrakumar
Former diplomat
(Views are personal)