2025 Masters long shots, sleepers and prop picks: Rooting for a hole-in-one
I liken the way that people bet on the Masters to the way people shop on Black Friday. All of the options and numbers can get overwhelming, and by the time you look at your wallet, you've spent more than you intended. You may walk into Walmart planning to get one great deal, and the next thing you know, you're asking your spouse to bring the big car so you can fit your haul in the trunk. (Or, in today's online shopping world, whatever the equivalent is for your Amazon cart.)
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In the same way, that 10-leg parlay may look good right now, but it will be as big an eyesore on your betting slip as that pressure cooker you never use on your kitchen counter.
I go into this week with a reminder to protect my bankroll. I also tally the Masters futures bets I've already placed and count them toward my maximum weekly spend. I had futures on Robert MacIntyre, Xander Schauffele, Min Woo Lee and Ludvig Åberg at different points. I'm happy with the numbers I have on Åberg and Min Woo Lee, but I'm not looking to invest in them any more than I already have. I still see value in betting MacIntyre and Schauffele for a few different reasons, so I am keeping those bets in mind while I scour prop bets at various sportsbooks.
With Tiger Woods sidelined again with injury, we may not see the same betting volume as in past years, but we should see some decent values. While the prop bets may take up a lot of my time from now until the start of the tournament, I'll also be looking at a few longshots that I think could surprise this week and contend. Their odds are long for a reason, but their season-long statistics show a real opportunity to pay off either as a small bet outright or as a late Sunday hedge.
Do I think Kevin Yu will win the Masters the first time he tees it up? No. Could he surprise everyone and be among the leaders at different points in the tournament? Yes.
Here are the Masters sleepers and props that I find intriguing right now.
Corey Conners (+6000, shop up to +7500) is playing some great golf leading into this year's Masters Tournament. Conners has gained strokes off the tee and around the green in five straight tournaments. He has gained more than 6.8 strokes from tee to green in four straight tournaments. He has knocked on the door at the Masters before because of his excellent tee-to-green play, and he's even been a plus with the putter three out of six times he's played at Augusta National.
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Patrick Reed (+6600, shop up to +10000) won here in 2018 and has had four top-12 finishes since, yet he still gets overlooked every year. Reed may rub fans and pundits the wrong way, but you cannot deny how he gets his golf ball around the golf course at Augusta National. He comes into this week after a great week off the tee and on the greens at LIV Miami. He has gained strokes on approach in four straight tournaments on the LIV Golf Tour and looks as good as he has since he left the PGA Tour.
Sepp Straka (+6600, shop up to +8000) is one of my favorite plays this week. He has gained over four strokes on approach in each of his last four tournaments and has had an incredible year so far. Straka won The American Express and sits in second place in the FedEx Cup Points race. He has made the cut in all three tries at Augusta National and gained over 6.5 strokes tee-to-green at the Masters in 2025.
Sergio García (+8000) is in incredible form coming into this Masters. He won LIV Hong Kong in March and has had two other top-four finishes since. He is back to being dominant from tee to green, which bodes well for his chances this week. García looks to be pushing to play in more major championships and just missed out on qualifying for the 2025 Open Championship when he missed a 3-foot putt at the International Series Macau. He has been very bad at the Masters since his win in 2017, but I'm encouraged with how competitive he looks this year.
Kevin Yu (+25000, shop up to +35000) is a wild-card pick based on my model and how he has performed from tee to green lately. His name pops when I do this week's trends and power rankings. He has gained over 4.1 strokes from tee to green in five of his last six tournaments. He has four top-18 finishes over that same time frame. He struggles with his putter, but his ball-striking form could see him surprise this week.
The Masters hasn't been decided by a playoff since Sergio García defeated Justin Rose in a playoff at the 2017 Masters. With Scottie Scheffler not looking as dominant as he did last season, I don't think anyone is going to run away with this tournament. I think it will be close in the end, and I am hoping it will end in a playoff. A playoff between Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry would be an all-timer. I'm rooting for that kind of drama.
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Watching the tournament and rooting against a hole-in-one just seems wrong on so many levels. We haven't had a hole-in-one since 2022, so we must be due, right? In all seriousness, I have a group of 24 or so players who are striking their irons well right now and have a chance at making an ace on the 16th. You can also bet this specifically for the 16th hole for +100.
(Photo of Rory McIlroy: Richard Heathcote / Getty Images)
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