Duke's Cooper Flagg, Rutgers' Ace Bailey are the one-and-done headliners among NBA draft's forwards

Washington Post

3 hours ago

Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey were the first two names mentioned last summer when it came to college basketball's top incoming freshmen.
Now they're the headliners among forwards in the NBA draft.
Flagg led Duke to the Final Four and became only the fourth freshman named Associated Press men's national player of the year . Bailey put up quality numbers at Rutgers, though in a losing season.
Flagg and Bailey were ranked 1-2 in the 2024 recruiting class by 247Sports, Rivals, On3 and ESPN. Now Flagg is the projected No. 1 overall pick, while Bailey is a likely top-five prospect.
Here's a look at the position entering Wednesday's first round:
STRENGTHS: The 6-foot-8, 221-pound Maine native has a versatile all-around game far more advanced than his age, with room to develop as he turns 19 in December. He led Duke in scoring (19.2), rebounding (7.5), assists (4.2), steals (1.4) and blocks (1.4). He shot 38.5% on 3-pointers and 84% from the line.
He proved he can thrive as a scorer, such as when he had an Atlantic Coast Conference freshman-record 42 points against Notre Dame. That included ranking in the 85th percentile or better in converting as the ballhandler in pick-and-rolls, on post-ups and in transition, according to Synergy's analytics rankings.
He also thrived as a playmaker, while his length allows him to alter shots, get into passing lanes and finish at the rim — sometimes over a defender .
And then there's his competitive edge, with multiple examples of Flagg's willingness to take on big moments and receptiveness to firm coaching. That included coach Jon Scheyer lighting into Flagg during a first-half timeout in January for playing soft (in so many words) against N.C. State, then Flagg responding with 23 of his 28 points after halftime.
Flagg also went for 30 points, six rebounds, seven assists and three blocks as Duke held off Arizona in a shootout win in the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16, a performance Scheyer called 'one of the best tournament performances I've ever coached or been a part of.'
CONCERNS: Not many. He can always get stronger, though he checked in at the combine 16 pounds heavier than his listed weight at Duke (205). He could also cut down on turnovers considering he had 15 games with at least three, though only two came after Feb. 1.
STRENGTHS: The 6-8, 203-pound Bailey is a versatile shotmaker with athleticism . He averaged 17.6 points and 7.2 rebounds with stepback skills, a good midrange game and the ability to shoot off the dribble or on the catch. Notably, he ranked in Synergy's 94th percentile for contested catch-and-shoot looks (39 of 81, 48.1%).
Bailey can attack the paint and stretch defenses with his range. He had five January games with at least four made 3s while shooting 34.6% from behind the arc on the season.
The versatility and athleticism indicates defensive potential, too. He averaged 1.3 blocks and had six games with at least three blocks in Big Ten play.
CONCERNS: Adding strength would help him against bumps and physical play by stronger defenders, such as improving on finishing just 42.1% of layups in the halfcourt at Rutgers. There's a streakiness in his shot, such as making 12 of 31 free throws (.387) over a six-game midseason stretch or 7 of 39 3-pointers (.179) after January.
There's also the awkward question of Bailey's impact beyond stats considering the Scarlet Knights had a losing record despite Bailey teaming with another one-and-done prospect in likely No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper.
STRENGTHS: The 6-7, 217-pound Knueppel was an efficient wing scorer with size and defense-stretching range. The freshman lottery prospect made 40.6% of his 3s and ranked in Synergy's 98th percentile when it came to overall spot-up shooting (52.9%), with nearly three-quarters of those attempts coming from behind the arc.
He also ranked sixth in Division I by shooting 91.4% at the foul line, and stood out as ACC Tournament MVP when Flagg was sidelined by injury. And Knueppel had 10 games with at least four assists as a secondary playmaker.
CONCERNS: Knueppel isn't an elite athlete, so there's a question of matching up against quicker or more explosive opponents.
STRENGTHS: The sophomore lottery prospect has a strong 6-7, 240-pound frame and a nearly 7-1 wingspan. He thrived in the halfcourt (shooting 57.9% to rank in Synergy's 88th percentile), and has contributed as a scorer (16.8) and rebounder (8.3).
He also averaged 1.3 blocks and 1.5 steals, indicating the potential for him to defend multiple positions.
CONCERNS: His shooting touch is a major question after he went 0 for 5 from 3-point range as a freshman, then just 9 for 34 (.265) as a sophomore. He also made just 69.5% of his free throws in two college seasons. There's also the risk of being the 'tweener' who is too slow to guard outside and too small to defend in the paint.
— CARTER BRYANT: Arizona's 6-7, 215-pound freshman reserve shot 37.1% on 3s and a block per game despite playing just 19 minutes a night. Throw in a 39.5-inch max vertical leap, and he's a possible lottery pick.
— NOA ESSENGUE: The lanky 6-9, 194-pound Frenchman is a potential late lottery pick. Essengue, who turns 19 in December, has been honing his versatile skillset with Ratiopharm Ulm in Germany.
— LIAM MCNEELEY: The freshman jumped right in as a starter for two-time reigning national champion UConn. He's a first-round prospect as a floor-stretching wing with size (6-7, 215) and shotmaking ability, highlighted by him going for 38 points against then-No. 24 Creighton and 22 points in the NCAA Tournament against eventual champion Florida.
— WILL RILEY: Illinois' 6-8 freshman from Canada is a first-round prospect with the potential to play as a guard or as a wing forward. He showed potential as a scorer and passer at Illinois, though he needs to develop physically with a 186-pound frame.
— HUGO GONZALEZ: The 6-6, 205-pound Gonzalez is a late first-round prospect who played this season with Real Madrid in his home Spain. The 19-year-old offers potential with perimeter size, shooting range and ability to attack off the dribble and perimeter size.
___
AP NBA: https://apnews.com/nba