Address AI threats amid tensions in South China Sea, Asean told
The Asean Defence Ministers meeting, chaired by Malaysia in February this year, highlighted the risks of AI in military applications. (Bernama pic)
PETALING JAYA : As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes more integrated into military systems, analysts are urging Asean member states to take AI-related defence threats more seriously, particularly amid escalating regional tensions.
Faizal Abdul Rahman, a research fellow at Singapore's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), said tensions in the South China Sea, particularly between China and the Philippines, have already seen the deployment of AI-driven propaganda—a key element of the emerging cognitive warfare landscape.
'Cognitive warfare' refers to strategies aimed at influencing or disrupting human thought processes, decision-making and perceptions to achieve strategic objectives, including the fracturing of society without military intervention.
Prompted by its importance as a strategic shipping lane and resource-rich zone, the South China Sea has been the subject of overlapping claims by China on the one part, and the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan on the other.
'AI cognitive warfare would be a tactic that claimant countries need to prepare for,' Faizal told FMT.
Meanwhile, several Asean nations are advancing AI-driven defence technologies. Indonesia, for example, is collaborating with Turkiye to develop drones, while Vietnam's military technology arm, Viettel, is integrating AI into radar and electronic warfare systems.
'These AI-enabled drones could complement Indonesia's defence posture near the Natuna islands.
'Such capabilities could be useful when deployed at islets in the South China Sea that Vietnam controls and has reclaimed,' said Faizal.
The Asean Defence Ministers meeting, chaired by Malaysia in February this year, highlighted the risks of AI in military applications, including miscalculation, overdependence and the potential for unintended conflict escalation.
The long game
However, Faizal noted that while Asean nations may incorporate AI-related guidelines into their military modernisation efforts, it remains uncertain whether they would accept restrictions that could limit their strategic options in the South China Sea.
He said rules and norms work better when there is a good level of trust between countries that are parties to a dispute.
'But the prolonged negotiations on the Code of Conduct (COC) suggest that there is more pessimism than optimism in resolving the South China Sea dispute,' he said.
COC negotiations between Asean and China have dragged on for over two decades, stalled by disagreements over legal obligations, its geographic scope and enforcement.
Universiti Malaya's Johan Saravanamuttu believes that Malaysia, as Asean chair, can use its special relationship with China to push the COC talks forward.
Malaysia was the first Southeast Asian country to establish diplomatic ties with China in 1974, and currently serves as the Asean-China country coordinator.
'Malaysia has a much better relationship with China than the Philippines, which will take over as the next Asean chair,' Johan added.
'The Philippines has claims to the South China Sea, but it is in alliance with the US. That creates more complications due to US-China tensions.'
He also urged Malaysia to revive the dormant Asean High Council for peaceful conflict resolution, and to consider reintroducing ideas from the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality — a declaration signed by Asean member states in 1971— including making Southeast Asia a nuclear-free region.
Managing expectations
Still, experts said that tackling issues related to the South China Sea, whether in terms of regulating AI military use or concluding the COC, will take time.
Tang Siew Mun of the ISEAS Yusof-Ishak Institute said Asean remains a 'work-in-progress' and it would be 'unreasonable' to place so many expectations on a single chairmanship.
This is especially the case given that Malaysia is facing stronger geopolitical and geoeconomic headwinds on top of higher expectations, he said, compared to its previous stint as bloc chair 10 years ago.
Tang said despite its rockier relationship with Beijing, the Philippines' chairmanship of Asean next year was unlikely to derail the grouping's efforts in the South China Sea.
'Although much of the spotlight on the South China Sea disputes has been on the Philippines' standoff with China, it bears reminding that peace and stability in the South China Sea is a regional issue,' he told FMT.
Faizal said that a one-year chairmanship term was too short for significant progress to be made on the use of AI in defence.
'To maintain the momentum, Malaysia may need to work with next year's chairperson to ensure continuity in the 'AI in defence' agenda,' he said.
Malaysia will host the 46th Asean Summit in Kuala Lumpur on May 26, under the theme 'Sustainability and Inclusivity'. The summit will tackle regional flashpoints, including the South China Sea, amid growing geopolitical tensions.
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