It's Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli for New Jersey governor. Experts weigh in on how each candidate wins the race.

CBS News

a day ago

The stage is set for November when New Jersey voters will select the Garden State's next governor. Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill both secured their party's nomination in Tuesday night's primary elections.
And in perhaps a sign of a contentious campaign ahead, both candidates wasted little time turning their attention from crowded primary fields to each other.
"Make no mistake, Mikie Sherrill is Phil Murphy 2.0," Ciattarelli told a crowd of supporters at his election night headquarters in Monmouth County.
"He's not change, he's a rerun. He's a ghost of elections past," said Sherrill, referring to Ciattarelli's previous two runs for the governor's seat.
As Jeanette Hoffman, a longtime Republican strategist and president of Marathon Public Affairs put it: "The gloves are already off." Hoffman believes, with these two leading their parties, New Jersey is in for a tight race come November.
"I think it's going to be a very competitive race here," Hoffman said.
Republicans "united" around Ciattarelli
It was a relatively quick night for Ciattarelli, the 2021 Republican nominee and former state assemblyman. CBS News projected him the winner of the GOP race about 20 minutes after polls closed at 8 p.m.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Ciattarelli had secured just shy of 68% of the Republican vote. His next closest competitor, Bill Spadea, was closing in on 22%.
"It shows that the Republican party is motivated, united around Jack Ciattarelli, for him to win in November," Hoffman said.
Ciattarelli had, for some time, been considered the frontrunner in the GOP race that featured four other candidates, especially after receiving President Trump's endorsement in May.
What remains to be seen is how Trump's backing will translate to the general election. The president remains highly popular with Republicans, but CBS News polling shows he is still under water with those who identify as independents.
Hoffman says courting those independent voters will be key for Ciattarelli to win in November.
"Sometimes [they] care about things on the right, sometimes care about things on the left, but mostly care about things that aren't truly partisan," Hoffman said. "It's more about every day, kitchen table, affordability issues."
"Wasn't surprised at all" that Sherrill topped Dems race
Sherrill emerged from a crowded and competitive Democratic field that saw six candidates vying for the nomination. As of Wednesday afternoon, Sherrill sat with 34% of the Democratic vote, leading second place Newark Mayor Ras Baraka by more than 100,000 votes.
Sherrill was also ahead in 15 New Jersey counties.
Heading into Tuesday's primary, experts contended there was no clear frontrunner in what was expected to be a tight Democratic contest. But political strategist and former Democratic Linden Councilman Peter Brown says he wasn't surprised "at all" that Sherrill was the pick.
"Her background and her experience is one, but also her focus on what she's trying to accomplish. And also voters wanting some new blood," Brown said.
Like Ciattarelli, Brown said, Sherrill will now have to turn her attention to courting those key independent voters. But Sherrill also has to pull together the roughly 66% of Democratic voters who didn't back her on Tuesday.
Brown also pointed to Republican gains in New Jersey over the last few elections. In 2021, Ciattarelli came within 3.5% of incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy. And while Mr. Trump didn't win New Jersey in 2024, he came as close as any Republican has in decades.
"Can she now focus on more on getting those moderates and those Democrats who left and went to the Republican party and bring them back in?" Brown said.
Brown's advice: Make communities of color a priority.
"Rather than tell us what we need to do, come and talk to us, and we'll be able to provide you with some of those answers," Brown said. "That, in turn, will translate into votes."
The Trump factor
National pundits will be watching the New Jersey race closely come November. New Jersey and Virginia, are the only states that will hold gubernatorial elections in 2025. The races coming the year after a presidential election, some may look at Jersey to gauge how voters are feeling about national politics, and by extension, President Trump.
Trump has already played a role in this campaign. The president endorsed Ciattarelli, and every Democrat running in the primary made comments on how they'd counter the administration.
On Tuesday night, both nominees mentioned the president in their victory speeches, with Ciattarelli thanking Trump for his backing and Sherrill referring to her November opponent as a "Trump lackey."
But both strategists we spoke with warned that making Trump the center of a campaign on either side, likely isn't a winning formula.
"This campaign is going to be about Statehouse issues, not White House issues. It's about property taxes, schools, and keeping communities safe," Hoffman said.
"Talking about Trump is about Trump. And what people want is, let's talk about those issues at the kitchen room table, as we say," Brown said.
The general election in New Jersey is set for Nov. 4.