Merz keeps Putin guessing over Germany's missile masterplan

Telegraph

2 days ago

Friedrich Merz's refusal to confirm or deny whether he is sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine will keep Vladimir Putin guessing – but it has other advantages for Germany's canny new Chancellor.
Mr Merz welcomed Volodymyr Zelensky to Berlin on Wednesday for the first time since his victory in February's German elections.
On the campaign trail, he had lambasted Olaf Scholz, the former chancellor, for refusing to send long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv.
Now in office, and alongside the Ukrainian president, he would not be drawn on the subject.
On Wednesday, he instead announced that Germany would support Ukraine in developing its own long-range missile systems in a significant upgrade to Kyiv's Neptune weapons.
Under the cover of that headline-grabbing moment, Mr Merz was executing some nimble political footwork.
Mr Scholz ruled out sending Taurus missiles because he feared it risked the war in Ukraine escalating into one with the wider West. For Putin, this was confirmation that he didn't have to worry about the missiles, and of Europe's fracturing resolve.
Mr Merz's missile omerta keeps Putin pondering at a time when Russia wants to take as much territory as possible before mooted peace talks, but it also shows he is determined not to make the same mistakes as his hapless predecessor.
Germany, under Mr Scholz, was sending more weapons to Ukraine than any other European country. But his refusal to send Taurus entrenched the impression that Berlin was at best a reluctant partner of Kyiv.
Mr Scholz's ham-fisted response was to order the publication of lists of what weapons Germany was sending to Ukraine. He then used the lists to criticise European allies like France for not doing more, undermining the united front against Putin.
Mr Merz has already ditched the lists.
There is nothing new about his embrace of 'strategic ambiguity'. Britain and France opted to keep the donations of their Storm Shadow and Scalp-EG cruise missiles a secret, with announcements only made after the projectiles had been used by Ukraine's air force in bombing raids.
A similar strategy was used when decisions were taken to allow Kyiv to strike military targets inside Russia with the missiles.
Thanks to such precedents from his allies in the 'coalition of the willing', Mr Merz will be able to keep his silence.
He can also point to the fact that Europe's hawks are pleased. Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania's former foreign minister, said his announcements brought hope that Germany had taken the right direction on the 'crossroads of history' and 'that the stick he promised is going to be used'.
Mr Zelensky did not say whether he had received Taurus. 'We need sufficient long-range capabilities. That is why we must be confident in the financing of our army and the resilience of Ukraine,' he said. 'Germany can support us in all of this.'
Taurus is less important militarily than Ukraine's domestically produced drones and missiles, which cover the vast majority of Russian targets on the battlefield.
It is more useful for striking heavily fortified and underground targets and is now more important symbolically than militarily.
It also probably means more politically in Germany than it does in Ukraine. Mr Scholz was brought down by endless infighting in his dysfunctional coalition government, which collapsed in November.
His refusal to send Taurus was meant to appease dove-ish elements in his SPD, which is now junior coalition partner to Mr Merz's Christian Democrats.
Mr Merz comfortably won February's elections, but the scale of his victory was not so commanding as to mean he can afford to ignore his allies in government or their concerns.
Yet more coalition infighting would play badly with German voters already suspicious that the Merz government is not as strong or united as it promised to be.
The truth is that his CDU is also divided over Ukraine policy, as is Germany as a whole.
The pro-Putin and far-Right Alternative for Germany came second in the elections, and is now the main opposition, while hard-Left anti-Nato appeasement parties also performed well.
Moscow continues to play on German fears of a Russian invasion. Its propagandists are already spinning that Russia will strike Berlin if Taurus is used against Russia.
But Mr Merz's strategic ambiguity allows him to support Ukraine in its battle, while dodging a damaging fight at home.