The Liberals may have lost seats in Ontario — and their majority — because of crime and Trudeau fatigue

Calgary Herald

04-05-2025

OTTAWA — In the first weeks of the campaign, Liberal incumbent Helena Jaczek said decided voters she met at the doors were intent on voting for Mark Carney because they thought he was the best person to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump.
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'As time went on and Mr. Trump was less vocal, and perhaps as (Conservative Leader Pierre) Poilievre softened his image somewhat during debates, I think then a lot of the people who hadn't given the election much thought decided they really had to concentrate,' she said in a recent interview with National Post.
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'And then what we got at the doors was more of, 'Well, it's time for change, the Liberals have had their time, and I'm looking at alternatives.''
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Jaczek was ultimately re-elected in Markham—Stouffville — a riding she's represented federally since 2019 — but most of her Liberal colleagues in York region were defeated by the Conservatives. In fact, she and Tim Hodgson are now the sole representatives of the 905 region which encompasses the cities of Markham, Vaughan and Richmond Hill.
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There were other stunning losses for the Liberals in the Toronto area. Kamal Khera, who had just been promoted to Minister of Health in March, lost the stronghold of Brampton West in a neck-to-neck battle against Conservative candidate Amarjeet Gill.
And Ya'ara Saks, who formerly served as Minister of Mental Health and Addictions, lost her seat of York Centre by 12 percentage points to former Conservative leadership contender Roman Baber who had been campaigning for the Tories in the riding since 2023.
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Other notable losses for the Liberals occurred in southwestern Ontario, including in Hamilton, Niagara and Windsor — areas acutely affected by the trade war with the U.S.
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'I think it's fair to say the reason that the Liberals didn't win a majority is because they did not perform in Ontario as well as they might have hoped to,' said Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer for Pollara and former research strategist for Justin Trudeau's Liberals.
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'It's really the only part of the country where their seat totals went down by any significant margin from the last election campaign,' he added.
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The Liberals still ended up winning 69 seats, with 49 per cent of the popular vote, but the Conservatives managed to increase their seat count to 53, with 44 per cent of the popular vote. The Conservatives gained 16 seats, and the Liberals lost nine compared to 2021.
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Arnold noted that the Liberals still managed to make some significant gains at the expense of the Conservatives Monday night especially in Eastern Ontario — picking up Poilievre's Ottawa-area riding of Carleton and ridings like Peterborough and Bay of Quinte.