Would Putin go nuclear after Ukraine's daring attacks? Michael Clarke answers your questions live

Sky News

04-06-2025

Our security and defence analyst Michael Clarke is back answering your questions on the Ukraine war. Watch and follow below - and submit your question in the box to join in.
12:36:03
Putin has disappeared in the past 48 hours
Never the question:
What psychological effect do the attacks have on Putin?
Military analyst Michael Clarke in response says these attacks, are "believed to annoy the Russian leader".
"They do affect him," Clarke notes.
"I was talking to somebody who keeps track on these things, and he said that Putin has disappeared in the last 48 hours.
"He's just not made any appearances, which is unlike him."
Clarke says the "more audacious" the attacks are the more humiliating it is for Russian defence forces.
"One of the reasons he [Putin] doesn't come onto TV immediately is because it would look as if the blame was his," he says.
"And so he always makes sure that the blame is laid on the regional governor or somebody lower down in the air defence control."
Clarke says Putin was shaken by Yevgeny Prigozhin's attempted coup in 2023 - this is when Wagner's former chief staged an apparent insurrection, sending an armoured convoy towards Moscow.
The Kremlin use words like "terrorist act" when attacks like these occur, Clarke says.
"He [Putin] makes sure to defect attention from these things," Clarke adds.
12:32:21
Russia won't launch nuclear weapons - but clear US would no longer respond if they did
Security and defence analyst Michael Clarke says no, it is very, very unlikely.
"The Russians have shown no indication, any physical indication, of bringing their tactical nuclear weapons forward or bringing any of the preparations together," he says.
Russia uses nuclear rhetoric to frighten everybody, but there is no real advantage that it could gain by using tactical nuclear weapons, Clarke explains.
"They would have to use five or six Hiroshima-sized bombs to destroy one Ukrainian brigade, dispersed as they normally are.
"So they would have to go in for a nuclear war in a big way, and even then that would destroy one Ukrainian brigade."
Alternatively, they would have to launch two or three nuclear weapons at a city.
"Putin would lose his most important supporters and backers if he broke this taboo," says Clarke.
This includes India and China, because it would "go down so badly in the rest of the global south".
"Putin wants to go down in history as a great Russian leader. I'm pretty sure he doesn't want to go down in history as the man who broke the taboo, the first man to use nuclear weapons in an aggressive mode [since the Second World War]."
Four or five days of very intensive air attacks are a likely response.
"But you can't rule out the idea that the Russians might begin to step over the threshold, say in biological warfare and chemical warfare."
He says there are lots of reports of Moscow using gas and nerve agents.
"It is not impossible that they might go for their own sort of spectacular with a biological attack on the civilian population somewhere."
Asked what the West would do in response to a nuclear attack, Clarke says the US response used to be understood to be a massive conventional attack on every base from which tactical nuclear weapons had been used.
"I don't believe that Trump would initiate that sort of response," says Clarke.
"Trump is very frightened or very, very resistant to using American firepower in a strategic way," he adds.
"The idea of using American firepower explicitly against Russia is almost completely off the table."
12:15:57
We're live - watch at the top of the page
Michael Clarke is here and ready to start answering your questions.
Lots of you have been in touch, and we will aim to get through as many of your questions as we can, with presenter Kamali Melbourne putting them to him.
We'll be sharing updates here, and you can watch along in the live stream at the top of this page.
10:00:01
You can still submit your questions
There's still time to ask Michael Clarke a question before his latest Q&A at 12:15pm.
Just put it in the box at the top of this page.
06:05:48
Send in your Ukraine war questions
It's Wednesday, which means our security and defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke is back to answer your questions on the Ukraine war in his weekly Q&A.
Hundreds of you have already sent in your questions after a very significant few days on the battlefield in the three-year conflict.
Ukraine has pulled off three daring attacks - on two bridges and Russia's bomber fleet over the weekend and on the key Kerch Bridge linking Russia to Crimea yesterday - and the world is waiting to see how Vladimir Putin responds.
Watch: Ukraine strikes Russian bombers
Watch: Kerch Bridge explosion
And there are reports Moscow is launching a summer offensive as peace talks make little sign of progress.
Teams from Kyiv and Moscow met for a second round of direct talks in Istanbul on Monday, agreeing only to another prisoner swap and exchanging terms for a full ceasefire, which still appears a long way off.
And all the while, the usually vocal Donald Trump has remained quiet.
So what does it all mean? Michael is here from 12.15pm to help make sense of it.
Submit your questions to join in - and you'll be able to watch the Q&A live on this page.