Nigeria's Annual Inflation Rate Slows for Second Month in a Row
Nigeria's annual inflation rate cooled for a second straight month, giving policymakers a clearer picture of price trends after a data revamp in January clouded the outlook.
Annual consumer price inflation slowed to 23% in May compared with 23.7% a month earlier, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. Prices were up 1.53% in the month.
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The Crypto Yield Hunger Games Ahead This Stablecoin Summer
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While holders are typically not entitled to a share of the interest, stablecoins unlock inexpensive, global and around-the-clock payments and remittances. For those in the developing world, dollar stablecoins often serve as a better store of value than the hyper-inflationary local currency. According to the Chainalysis 2024 Geography of Crypto Report, the top 10 nations with rapidly increasing crypto usage (including stablecoins) includes India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Philippines, Pakistan and Brazil. Nations with high inflation, like Venezuela, Argentina, and Turkey, also rank in the top 20. In the crypto industry, skilled practitioners—and now AI agents—deploy stablecoins to optimize yield across an array of decentralized finance strategies. It feels like a modern day gold rush. Tether was the first stablecoin to really strike gold. In 2024, it reaped $13 billion in profit with only a handful of employees. 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Traditional institutions, including the banks, have been waiting for this moment. At a Morgan Stanley conference in New York last week, Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America said, 'We're working with the industry, working individually.' For many issuers, however, there will be a downside to regulatory clarity. 'But the problem before was it wasn't clear we were allowed to do it under the banking regulations, ' Moynihan said, driving that point home. One of the great lessons learned from the global financial crisis is that regulation forces consolidation. Derivative markets serve as a good example. When the Dodd Frank Act required the clearing of the $700 trillion derivatives market, many believed that there would be a proliferation of clearing members. Instead, the opposite happened, and clearing members declined from 177 in 2004 to 64 in 2024. With regulation, costs increased and intense competition compressed fees. Similar dynamics are likely to play out in the stablecoin industry. 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CNET
3 hours ago
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Make the most of the Fed's upcoming decision by taking these steps Federal Reserve is under pressure to lower interest rates, but that's not going to happen at this week's meeting. With inflation still high and a global trade war raging, experts predict the Fed will pause rates for the fourth time this year at its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 17 to 18. That may not sound exciting, but it has a real effect on your wallet. The central bank's actions impact everything from how much you owe on outstanding debt to what kind of mortgage rate you can get. By making some strategic moves now, you can reap the biggest rewards from the Fed's anticipated rate pause. Read more: Wednesday's Fed Decision Could Actually Help Boost Your Savings. Here's How Make these 4 money moves now Make the most of the Fed's expected decision by doing these things ASAP. ✅ Open a certificate of deposit CDs are unique deposit accounts that come in terms ranging from a few months to several years. You need to leave your money in the CD for the entire term to avoid early withdrawal penalties. In exchange, the bank or credit union pays you a fixed return for the entire term based on the interest rate in effect when you open the CD. Some of the best CDs today offer APYs of up to 4.50%. The Fed is expected to cut rates in the fall, so locking in a higher APY now can protect your future earnings if rates drop. Banks tend to follow the Fed's lead when setting CD rates. APYs have been falling even with rates paused, so if you're thinking of opening a CD, now is a great time to do it. "If you have investment money that aligns with maturity dates on CDs and you want a fixed guaranteed rate, I would recommend investing in that CD now versus waiting until the Fed meeting concludes," said Faron Daugs, CFP, founder and CEO at Harrison Wallace Financial Group. ✅ Open a high-yield savings account A CD is a great home for money you don't need to touch for some time. But what about your emergency savings? You want to keep these funds liquid while still earning the most interest you can on them. A high-yield savings account can help. Often provided by online banks, these accounts offer far better returns than traditional savings options available at major banks. The best savings accounts pay at least 10 times the national average savings rate. It's usually easy to access your funds in a high-yield savings account, although there may be withdrawal limits. For instance, you may pay a fee if you withdraw money from your account more than six times in any given month. The interest rates on high-yield savings accounts are variable, which means they tend to fall when the central bank cuts the federal funds rate. So you'll want to open a high-yield savings account now to take advantage of great APYs while you still can. ✅ Hold off on significant purchases If you're thinking about financing a new car or other large purchase, consider waiting until the Fed begins cutting rates again to avoid paying more in interest charges. If you're in the market for a new home, it's also smart to hold off. Mortgage rates remain high, and experts don't expect a Fed rate pause will bring them down. ✅ Focus on paying down any debt Paying down your credit cards and other high-interest debt is a smart move in any rate environment, but especially while interest rates remain high. Debt, notably high-interest debt, can hamper your financial stability. When you spend a large amount of money on interest, that money is no longer free for savings, investments or even to cover daily expenses. You may want to consider a debt consolidation loan down the road to combine your outstanding debt at a lower interest rate. For now, search for a reputable lender you're interested in working with so that, when rates do start to fall, all you need to do is apply. The bottom line You can't control what the Fed does with interest rates, but you can take some smart steps to make the most of its decisions. Maximize your finances now, and you'll get the biggest benefit from the central bank's upcoming move.
Forbes
4 hours ago
- Forbes
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The equity markets were slightly positive for the week, through Thursday. Then hostilities broke out in the Middle East. The price of oil shot up by $5/bbl. and equities tanked on Friday, with the DJIA off -1.79% (-770 points), the S&P 500 lost -1.13% (-68 points), the tech heavy Nasdaq fell -1.30% (-256 points), and the small cap Russell 2000 lost -1.85% (-40 points). The consolidated reporting charts are for informational purposes only and should not replace the ... More official reporting made available by each index, custodian, market and/or security. It was a mixed week for the Magnificent 7. TSLA was up more than 10%, but still remains well below its mid-December high. For the week, NVDA, MSFT, and GOOG were also up, but only marginally (MSFT hit an all-time high on Thursday) while AAPL, META and AMZN were down slightly.1 The consolidated reporting charts are for informational purposes only and should not replace the ... More official reporting made available by each index, custodian, market and/or security. Inflation Quelled? On Wednesday (June 11th), May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below market expectations. Both the headline and the core showed up as +0.1% for May while market expectations were for +0.2% for the headline number and +0.3% for the core (ex. food and energy). Looking at just the past three months and annualizing, the headline is rising at a 1.0% rate and the core at a 1.7% clip, both below the Fed's 2.0% goal.2 3 Looking at the detailed data for May, there appears to be a great deal of deflation now entering the marketplace. Some examples (per Rosenberg Research): Unfortunately, the Fed and the media look primarily at the 12-month result (2.4% for the headline CPI and 2.8% for the core reading).2 3 Our analysis shows that, if the current three-month trend continues to year's end, the 12-month CPI may fall below the Fed's 2% target in December. What the Year/Year CPI Would Hypothetically be at the Current 3-Month Inflation Rate2 3 The consolidated reporting charts are for informational purposes only and should not replace the ... More official reporting made available by each index, custodian, market and/or security. Note that at the 1.7% annual inflation rate assumed in the table, inflation remains persistent through Q3, likely a reason the Fed is in no hurry to lower rates.1 Then, on Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI), an index of prices paid by businesses, showed up equally as tame as Consumer Prices. May's headline index rose +0.1% from April's levels (in April this index showed up as -0.2%). On a year/year basis, the headline May PPI rose to 2.6% from April's 2.5% (but still on a negative trend) while the year/year core (ex-food and energy) fell to 3.0% from April's 3.2%.4 National Federation of Independent Business, % The quelling of the inflation dragon can further be seen in the attitude of small businesses toward this scourge. Note in the graph the downtrend in the NFIB's question to small businesses as to the importance of inflation as a problem for their business (now below 15%).1 The Labor Market Also noteworthy in Thursday's data releases was the rise in Initial Jobless Claims (those filing unemployment claims for the first time) to 248K the week of June 7th. This was above the consensus estimate of 242K. Worse, Continuing Unemployment Claims (those previously filing for unemployment benefits and continuing to do so) rose to 1.956 million (week of May 31st) from 1.902 million the prior week. That's an increase of more than 50K! And it's the highest level of such claims since mid-November 2021. (Note: In November '21 the Fed Funds Rate was near 0%).5 Look at the rise on the right-hand side of both of the charts shown below. Department of Labor Rosenberg Research, in its June 13th missive (Breakfast With Dave), calculated that same store retail sales rose +1.6% in Q1, below Q4's +2.2% growth. However, after accounting for inflation, sales volumes actually fell -0.2%. Conclusion: the rise in nominal sales was all due to rising prices. In another ominous sign, inventory levels have risen +1.7%. (Note that some of the inventory rise may have been due to pre-tariff stockpiling, but, for sure, some of it was due to falling real sales.) As a result, it does appear, from the aggregate data and from comments from the major retailers at their Q2 shareholders' meetings, that consumers are tightening their purse strings.1 What makes this economy different from the post-COVID experience is that there are no 'excess savings' to be used for future consumption. In addition, given the bond market's (and some politicians') angst over the growth of the Federal Debt and future built-in deficits, there isn't likely to be another round of 'stimulus checks,' like there was in the COVID period, if the economy exhibits negative growth.1 A Critical Time for the Fed Because the Fed's policy actions affect the economy with a lag, i.e., current actions have an impact several months later, it is our view that the Fed should be lowering rates now, as its 2% inflation target appears assured, there appears to be some deterioration in the jobs market, and consumption appears to be slowing.1 Unfortunately, Chairman Powell, not wanting to appear to be beholden to President Trump (a Fed independence issue), is now likely to wait until the soft (survey) data show up in the hard data. (In the Fed's most recent Beige Book, published every two months, comments from businesses in all the Federal Reserve Districts were downbeat, i.e., the economy appears to be softening.) Nevertheless, because of politics, the market's odds of a rate cut, by meeting, as shown in the next hypothetical table, are low for the June and July meetings, not becoming significant until September (when the economic slowdown becomes more noticeable).1 The consolidated reporting charts are for informational purposes only and should not replace the ... More official reporting made available by each index, custodian, market and/or security. As noted, since the 2% inflation target appears to be highly probable by year's end, it is our view that, because of the lag in the impact of Fed policy changes on the economy, the Fed should be lowering their benchmark Federal Funds Rate asap. Other major central banks, like the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada, have already lowered their benchmark rates, some several times.1 Final Thoughts It was a double whammy on Friday as both equity and fixed-income prices fell due to escalated hostilities in the Middle East. The three major indexes were down slightly for the week with only the small cap Russell 2000 showing a small uptick. It was a mixed week for the Magnificent 7.1 The week's inflation releases were significant with both CPI and PPI showing a significant moderation in inflation.2 3 4 The labor market has begun to show cracks. Both Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims remain on a rising trend, and that likely signals a rise in the unemployment rate in the next data release. The JOLTS confirms this trend.5 It is a crucial time for the Fed. At this week's upcoming meeting (June 17-18), the market has set the odds on a rate cut at 0%, and only 18.6% for a cut at the Fed's July conclave. It isn't until the September Fed meeting that the consensus calls for a rate cut. Our view: If this is the case, the Fed will, once again, be behind the curve as the economy is slowing and the inflation genie has been put back in the bottle.1 Dr. Robert Barone, Ph.D. (Joshua Barone and Eugene Hoover contributed to this blog.) Robert Barone, Joshua Barone and Eugene Hoover are investment adviser representatives with Savvy Advisors, Inc. ('Savvy Advisors'). Savvy Advisors is an SEC registered investment advisor. Material prepared herein has been created for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation. Information was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but was not verified for accuracy. Ancora West Advisors, LLC dba Universal Value Advisors ('UVA') is an investment advisor firm registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Savvy Advisors, Inc. ('Savvy Advisors') is also an investment advisor firm registered with the SEC. UVA and Savvy are not affiliated or related. References: 1 2 3 4 5
