Number of people with ADHD ‘probably isn't increasing that much'

Powys County Times

2 days ago

The number of people with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) 'probably isn't increasing that much', researchers have suggested, despite a 'marked uptick' in people seeking assessment for the condition.
Experts said that while there has been a rise in people being diagnosed with ADHD in the UK, the exact number is 'still probably lower than the best estimates' of the true number who have the condition.
An increase in patients seeking assessments could possibly be down to greater awareness and less stigma, or disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Researchers also suggest spending a lot of time online could be creating a 'distracted generation', but that it is too early to draw conclusions.
And while there is a link between social media and ADHD symptoms it is unclear 'what's driving what'.
ADHD assessments are reported to be increasingly in demand, researchers said, which is putting a strain on health and education systems across the world.
People with the neuro-developmental disorder may have trouble concentrating or sitting still, while other symptoms include being easily distracted, forgetfulness, finding it hard to follow instructions or organise time, and making impulsive decisions.
Earlier this month, NHS England estimated for the first time that 2,498,000 people in England may have ADHD, which includes those without a diagnosis.
Of the total, an estimated 741,000 are children and young people aged five to 24.
And more than half a million people (549,000) were waiting for an ADHD assessment at the end of March 2025, up from 416,000 a year earlier, according to figures.
The study, led by King's College London, aimed to update reviews on ADHD prevalence by examining global research from 2020 onwards.
Academics looked at more than 9,000 studies, with 40 from across 17 different countries – one of which included data from 42 countries – included in the final analysis.
Professor Philip Shaw, director of the King's Maudsley Partnership for Children and Young People at KCL's institute of psychiatry, psychology and neuroscience, said: 'It seems that our best evidence suggests that the true rate of ADHD probably isn't increasing that much.
'However, it's absolutely crystal clear that there is an increase in the number of people who are being clinically recognised or diagnosed as having ADHD in the United Kingdom.
'However, I will note that that rate is still probably lower than the best estimates we have of the rate of true ADHD in the population.'
Dr Alex Martin, a lecturer in psychology and pandemic preparedness at KCL's institute of psychiatry, psychology and neuroscience, added: 'What we did find was that ADHD prevalence in adults and children has remained largely stable since 2020.'
She said that some data being published is 'very much out of date', adding: 'This causes problems for healthcare policy makers internationally and means that services which are already under pressure may encounter increased demand without receiving additional support.
According to Prof Shaw, the health service is 'playing catch-up' when it comes to ADHD, which he said could explain 'a marked uptick in the numbers of people seeking assessment'.
Edmund Sonuga-Barke, a professor of developmental psychology, psychiatry and neuroscience at KCL, added there has been 'chronic under-recognition' in the history of ADHD, especially for certain groups and in particular women and girls.
'So part of the increase in diagnosis we've seen over the last 10 or so years is really a resetting or a recalibration, or a catch-up,' he said.
Prof Shaw added: 'When I was at medical school and training as a psychiatrist, there was actually very little recognition of ADHD, particularly in young people and adults.
'Of course, there's both an increased recognition and – very welcome – less stigma around ADHD, which means that people are increasingly coming forward for assessment, and while we're working through that backlog, there are simply going to be long waiting lists.'
Some other possibilities which Prof Shaw described as 'somewhat less likely' include a change in the threshold of how doctors diagnose ADHD and a shift in the understanding of the condition by children and young people.
He added that his 'hunch' is that the 'huge awareness' of ADHD is 'that it's often used as a language of distress'.
'It's sometimes used, I suspect, the way that children and young people are expressing that they are struggling, particularly at school, and need help,' he said
'And of course, when a child is having problems that are impacting their life in a sustained way, they deserve a full mental health assessment.
'Even if the final diagnosis doesn't end up being ADHD, we may often, for example, find that this child is struggling with a problem with mood or anxiety.'
Other societal issues could be driving the increase in assessments, including the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the use of social media.
Prof Shaw said: 'Many of the skills of learning that kids have, how to focus, how to plan, how to organise themselves, has completely throw them out the loop for about two or three years, and this may well play a part in the uptick in the awareness and seeking of help for symptoms of inattention in particular.
'Many also point to a possible role for social media and the impacts it might be having on the developing brain.
'Now, for ADHD, there's a great degree of interest in the possibility that what's going on, is that the constant dividing of attention and multitasking online is creating, if you like, a distracted generation.
'We know there's an association between social media use and some symptoms of ADHD, but we don't know what's driving what, we don't know what's the chicken and what's the egg.'
Prof Shaw said he has been 'struck' by some of his group's research findings into how 'variable' ADHD can be.
He suggests ADHD 'is a dynamic challenge that changes with age'.
Prof Sonuga-Barke added: 'I think the discovery that ADHD is a continuous risk dimension and not a fixed, natural category with clear biological boundaries may help explain why diagnostic rates are sensitive to changes in cultural values and beliefs, and clinical practices, and environmental risk exposures.'