‘It's bad': How drought, lack of snowpack and federal cuts could spell wildfire disaster in NM

Yahoo

10-03-2025

A view from Forest Road 141 during the Whitewater-Baldy Fire in the Gila National Forest in 2012. Between incredibly low snowpack and federal cuts, including a lease termination to the dispatch center covering the Gila National Forest, this year is shaping up to be a devastating wildfire season, experts told Source New Mexico. (Photo courtesy Gila National Forest)
A new national forecast warns that above-normal wildfire risk will exist through most of New Mexico by April. Meanwhile, federal cuts could leave one-third of the state without dispatchers to monitor for nascent blazes and fewer firefighters to respond if they blow up.
Snowpack this year was far below average. Most of the state is in severe drought. Fine fuels, like grass and pine needles, are abundant following two years of moderate precipitation. Meanwhile, the United States Department of Agriculture slashed 3,400 employees, 75% of whom had wildfire-fighting training, according to recent Congressional testimony.
Also, two wildfire dispatch centers, including one covering the fire-prone Gila National Forest, are slated to close, thanks to the Department of Government Efficiency's announced lease terminations.
Combine all of that and, 'It's bad, man,' said Matt Hurteau, a fire ecologist at the University of New Mexico.
'It's just going to be a matter of the intersection of an ignition and a wind event and high temperatures, and we're off and running,' he said.
Maps presented in the new National Interagency Fire Center outlook for March through May showed most of the state slowly engulfed in red, meaning 'above normal' wildfire conditions. Forecasters cited below normal snowpack throughout the state, including 0% of the median snowpack in Southwestern New Mexico between 1991 and 2020.
A detailed outlook for New Mexico and the rest of the Southwest was not available, but a NIFC official in a video last week said the 'significant fire potential' will spread from Southeastern Arizona and Southwestern New Mexico to the rest of the region by May, with a return to normal conditions in Eastern New Mexico by June.
The scenario shaping up in New Mexico is one in which multiple wildfires here and elsewhere quickly exhaust resources across the West, Hurteau said.
Incident command leadership, typically permanent employees, will be available and have access to firefighting aircraft, but the seasonal employees' hiring freeze and the gutting of probationary staff —most of whom could be called in to support wildfire suppression —means the West is less prepared than usual for this time of year.
'You can't wake up in April when it starts and be like, 'Oh, yeah, why don't we hire those fire crews on?' he said. 'There's the hiring process and then there's training and qualification and physical fitness exams and all that stuff.'
Knowing how gung-ho most wildfire firefighters are, Hurteau said he is deeply worried more of them will get injured or die this season. Even if they're under-staffed, it's in their psychology to put themselves in harm's way to save homes and communities from burning. Cuts could mean one or two firefighters find themselves between a blaze and a home, instead of five or six.
'Most of these folks are hard-chargers,' he said. 'They do take on a lot of personal risk and don't think a thing of it.'
Even though the Merit Systems Protection Board last week ordered Trump to reinstate 5,600 probationary employees at the USDA, those who are reinstated face the prospect of being furloughed in a looming government shutdown and then fired, legally, as part of a reduction in force soon after, Hurteau said.
So they aren't exactly eager to return, Hurteau said.
A critical part of the wildland firefighting infrastructure also remains on shaky ground due to announced federal cuts. Both the Cibola National Forest and Gila National Forest supervisor's offices are slated to be closed in a round of lease terminations, and both of those buildings house interagency dispatch centers.
The Albuquerque and Silver City dispatch centers contain high-tech communications and wildfire detection systems, nerve centers covering all of central and southwestern New Mexico, a combined 45,000-square-mile area.
When a wildfire is detected, specially trained federal employees from various land-management agencies alert local emergency responders, often volunteer fire departments, to determine the size and strength of the blaze.
If it's more than a small brush fire, for example, dispatch centers spin into action, collecting detailed weather forecasts and calling in resources on the ground and in the air, said Jim Whittington, a faculty member at Oregon State University. He is a retired public affairs officer at several federal agencies that responded to wildfires, including the Forest Service during Cerro Grande Fire in Los Alamos in 2000.
Dispatch centers play a vital role in preventing wildfires from getting out of hand, he said, or ensuring firefighters handle ones that do escape early suppression as efficiently as possible. Some big wildfires, including the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon Fire here in 2022, required more than 1,000 personnel to contain and hundreds of millions of dollars in suppression costs.
'Just as importantly, if there's a reduction in the number of dispatchers, that puts more pressure on ones that are still there, which means they'll probably work longer, and that cumulative fatigue starts to take a toll,' Whittington told Source New Mexico. 'And so they may miss something. They may make a mistake.'
Finding a new lease for the Albuquerque dispatch center, while disruptive and dangerous at the beginning of fire season, is at least feasible in the state's biggest city, according to a federal employee familiar with the challenges who asked not to be identified for fear of retaliation. It's nearly impossible to find a suitable alternative location in Silver City, the person said.
The Silver City dispatch center handled 751 incidents across its 19-million-acre coverage area in 2024, including filling more than 9,000 resource orders, according to a Forest Service news release from last year. In addition to wildfire detection and coordination, the center ensures all aircraft at the Grant County Tanker Base avoid colliding with military aircraft, and they make sure all employees are accounted for throughout the day as they go out in the often remote and unforgiving terrain.
No suitable location lies within at least 50 square miles of the current site, the person said. On top of the lease cancellation, more than 25 Gila National Forest employees had been fired as part of cost-cutting measures, the person said.
Most resources available to suppress wildfires are federal, Hurteau said, which is why what's happening now is so dangerous. But a state Forestry spokesperson said a surge in volunteers and recent state investments should make New Mexicans breathe at least a little easier.
The state is on track to meet its goal of training 1,500 'administratively determined' wildland firefighters this year, spokesperson George Ducker said. Those are people who go through state-offered training and can be called to assist during a wildfire here or in other states.
So far, 1,297 firefighters have been trained, including 110 so far this year. Several more trainings are scheduled before April. On top of that, the state now has 37 full-time wildland firefighters in three teams across the state. They're in various stages of achieving 'Hotshot' status, which is the highest level of training and experience.
Sign up for trainings here.
Training classes have been full so far this year, Ducker noted, possibly due a surge of interest following the wildfires in Los Angeles in January.
'The state is ready,' Ducker said. 'We got this really nasty wake-up call in January with those Los Angeles fires, and so seeing the amount of people that are showing up to get trained is really heartening.'
In addition to the surge of 'administratively determined' firefighters, the Legislature is considering several bills funding wildfire mitigation grants for communities at high risk, as well as $12 million for wildfire suppression.
Because conditions are so dangerous this year, Ducker reminded the public to be extra careful not to spark wildfires. He said most wildfires in the Southwest are human-caused, and most of those wildfires start from heavy equipment use, escaped campfires and debris burning.
To avoid all three of those causes, Ducker urged the public to avoid burning debris or starting campfires on windy days, and calling the local fire department so they're aware. Ultimately, just be careful, he said, and, 'Use common sense.'