Thunderstorms in California weather forecast. Here's where chances are highest
A cutoff low-pressure system that sucked fog away from San Francisco on Monday will spin toward Southern California on Tuesday and raise the chance of thunderstorms in Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties.
The cutoff low will pull in some subtropical moisture from the Gulf of California, a necessary ingredient for thunderstorms. Precipitable water, a measure of atmospheric moisture, is predicted to be near early-June records. This combination of atmospheric ingredients will likely trigger thunderstorms over the Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, San Gabriel, Santa Ana and San Jacinto mountains.
Thunderstorms should also pop over the Antelope Valley, but whether they drift westward toward Los Angeles and San Diego remains less certain. The National Weather Service predicts a 15% to 20% chance that thunderstorms move toward the coast from Los Angeles to San Diego.
A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will result in varying impacts, damaging wind, hail and cloud-to-ground lightning. Some storms may include dry lightning, which could ignite wildfires, while downpours from wetter storms could trigger debris flows over burned areas.
There is a low chance that downpours trigger debris flows around the Bridge Fire burn scar in Angeles National Forest. The Eaton Fire burn scar also faces a slight chance of flooding.
Flooding potential is greatest in the deserts of southern Nevada, western Arizona and southeastern California, where slow-moving thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday could drop an inch of rain in a short time. A flood watch is in effect for the deserts from Joshua Tree to Las Vegas to Grand Canyon.
On the northern side of the cutoff low, hazy skies may continue across Northern California. The system ingested some smoke from wildfires in Canada before it moved toward California, which could result in an orange tint to the sunrise and sunset throughout the Bay Area on Tuesday.
Other than the light concentration of wildfire smoke aloft, the cutoff low will have little sensible impact to Bay Area weather Tuesday. Fog is expected to be more extensive Tuesday morning as onshore flow increases.
Highs will be near normal for early June in the Bay Area, in the 60s at the coast, 70s near the bay and 80s inland.
Tuesday breakdown
San Francisco: After a mostly sunny Monday, more widespread fog is expected citywide in the morning. Clouds should retreat from downtown by midmorning, but a persistent west-southwest wind could keep the outer Richmond trapped in the gray all day. Highs will only be in the upper 50s to low 60s west of Twin Peaks and the mid-60s in Haight-Ashbury, the Mission District, Russian Hill and SoMa. Lows will be in the low to mid-50s with widespread fog.
North Bay: Fog is expected to fill the Sonoma, Napa and Petaluma valleys around sunrise and clouds will linger through midmorning around Santa Rosa as southwest winds continue. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid-70s in San Rafael and Santa Rosa, the mid- to upper 70s in Sonoma, Napa and Vallejo, the low to mid-80s in Fairfield and upper 80s in Vacaville. It'll be a breezy afternoon with gusts up to 35 mph near the delta. Fog will return overnight, especially to Sonoma and Marin counties.
East Bay: A finger of fog through the Golden Gate should extend toward Berkeley, Albany and Richmond in the morning but will probably retreat during the day. Temperature along the bay shoreline will range from the upper 60s to low 70s in Alameda and Berkeley to the mid- to upper 70s in Hayward and Fremont. The inland valleys will be a few degrees warmer than normal for early June, in the low to mid-80s and the upper 80s in Antioch and Brentwood. Fog will roll back in overnight for areas west of the Caldecott Tunnel. Lows will be in the mid-50s.
Pacific Coast and Peninsula: Monday's sunshine along the coast probably won't repeat itself as westerly winds return and relative humidity gradually increases. There could be some periods of broken clouds in Daly City, Pacifica and Half Moon Bay, but otherwise expect grey skies and temperatures in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Sunshine will emerge on the east side of the Peninsula. Highs will be in the upper 60s in San Bruno and the mid-70s in Redwood City. Fog will return overnight and may spread all the way toward San Francisco International Airport, possibly causing some flight delays early Wednesday. Lows will be in the mid-50s.
South Bay and Santa Cruz: Warm sunshine is expected in the South Bay as temperatures climb to the upper 70s to mid-80s. South-southwest winds will keep the Santa Cruz Mountains cooler than normal, in the upper 60s to low 70s. Santa Cruz will probably begin foggy before midday clearing with highs in the low to mid-60s. Fog will return to the Monterey Bay coastline overnight but the Santa Clara Valley will probably remain mainly clear. Lows will be in the mid-50s.
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