2025 Indy 500: Expert picks for the 109th running of the 'Greatest Spectacle in Racing'

USA Today

23-05-2025

2025 Indy 500: Expert picks for the 109th running of the 'Greatest Spectacle in Racing'
The grid is set. The practices are wrapping up. Everything is just about ready to go for the 109th running of the Indianapolis 500.
After a week of drama following the Team Penske scandal, things have fallen into a familiar pattern at Indianapolis Motor Speedway — well, aside from the tremendous addition of the inaugural Wienie 500 on Carb Day. So now that we know where all the cars and drivers stand, all that's left to do is make some picks on how the race will shape up.
We gathered our brightest motorsport minds to predict what will happen at the Brickyard on Sunday. The green flag drops for the Indianapolis 500 at 12:45 p.m. ET on May 25, 2025.
Best of luck to those who tail (or fade)!
Who will win the 109th Indianapolis 500?
Blake Schuster: Alex Palou
Don't let the fact he's starting sixth distract you from the four wins Palou already has this season driving for Chip Ganassi Racing. Ahead of his sixth Indy 500, Palou has proven he knows this track well and fired off the fastest post-qualifying practice lap at 226.765 mph in his car's race trim. We will absolutely take his 5-1 odds.
Michelle Martinelli: Pato O'Ward
This is Pato's year. The Arrow McLaren driver is supremely talented and has had about as much success at the Indy 500 as a driver could have without actually winning it, racking up three top-5 finishes in his five starts. Two of those were absolute heartbreakers as he finished second, including in 2024. He's experienced, he's starting from P3, he's the favorite and this year, he'll finally get that victory and cold bottle of milk.
Nick Schwartz: Scott Dixon
The former Indy 500 winner has shown plenty of speed all month, and the Penske woes could work in Dixon's favor. Josef Newgarden and Will Power will have a major challenge in front of them starting at the back, and it's unclear if Scott McLaughlin will be at the same level in a rebuilt car following his severe practice accident.
Who's a lock to finish top 3?
Blake Schuster: Pato O'Ward
Echoing what Michelle said above, he's come so close to kissing the bricks and once again has a fast ride this year. Don't be surprised if his face ends up on Borg Warner Trophy this time next May.
Michelle Martinelli: Scott Dixon
The Chip Ganassi Racing driver almost always shows up to the Indy 500 with a fast car, and he qualified fourth this year. Between a solid starting position, his speedy car and his ample experience (including winning the 2008 Indy 500), he's a good bet for the top-3 finishers. In 22 starts, he has nine top-5 finishes and has been on the podium three of the last seven Indy 500s.
Nick Schwartz: Takuma Sato
In a one-off appearance, the two-time Indy 500 winner was mega fast in qualifying and has all the experience necessary to manage the race and deliver a strong finish after 500 miles.
Who will log the fastest lap?
Blake Schuster: Helio Castroneves
I don't think he's going to win, but I refuse to watch an Indy 500 without rooting for him to do something incredible. I will not put any money down here but I'm praying for some Helio Magic just to make me feel young again.
Michelle Martinelli: Scott McLaughlin
This will be the only quasi-win and silver lining for Team Penske at Indy this weekend, as the team is embroiled in controversy over modified parts.
Nick Schwartz: Robert Shwartzman
This is an impossible question to answer, as so much depends on the draft and catching a perfect run over one lap, but Prema has been fairly aggressive with Shwartzman's setups and doesn't appear to be afraid to trim out the rookie's car to the edge.
Will Kyle Larson complete the Memorial Day Double?
Blake Schuster: Yep! There's minimal chance of rain for either race and Larson will have every tool at his disposal to make this happen after missing out last year. He's gonna get it done.
Michelle Martinelli: Unlike last year when rain in both Indianapolis and Charlotte derailed his first Double attempt, Larson will compete in both races, but he'll only finish one of them and will fall short of the 1,100-mile mark. But it'll be motivation for a third Double attempt in an effort to match Tony Stewart, who's currently the only driver to finish both races on the same day.
Double 2.0: Kyle Larson reveals approach for Indy 500, Coca-Cola 600 attempt
Nick Schwartz: I think Larson will run both races, but will he complete 1,100 miles and join Tony Stewart as the only driver to ever fully complete the double? Tough to say. Larson's 2025 Indy 500 hasn't been as easy as it was a year ago, where he had a very balanced car throughout May and only ran into trouble due to a speeding penalty. Larson's had multiple issues in practice, and will be starting in the middle of the pack where chaos is likely to happen. If he can finish all 200 laps at Indianapolis, I think the full double is very possible.