One month since Indus Waters Treaty suspension: What satellite images reveal
It's been a month since India put the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on hold following the horrific terror attack in Pahalgam on April 22. So, how is this suspension really affecting Pakistan?River flow data and geospatial evidence suggest that the government has made flushing of dams a regular exercise in the last month.
Satellite images of the Baglihar Dam on the Indian side show flushing operations underway on May 1, matching both news reports and a visible change in river water colour on the imagery indicating mud and sediments. Over the next 10 days, Sentinel images show shows a sharp drop in water levels followed by a sudden spike.
advertisementIndia Today's Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) team has identified a clear pattern at India's dams on the Chenab and Jhelum rivers: filling the reservoirs to its capacity, then force-flushing silt to clear them out. This practice not only clears sediment but also boosts hydroelectric power generation.
We reviewed satellite images and water inflow data over 30 days at the last dam in India and the first in Pakistan on Chenab and Jhelum rivers. The idea is to detect any shift in water management. For instance, if India opens the sluice gates of a dam, the water level downstream in Pakistan should also rise.
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Water inflow data from Pakistan's Indus River System Authority (IRSA) for the Marala Dam — the first regulation point on the Chenab after it enters Pakistan — shows a sharp drop in water levels followed by a sudden spike.The outflow of water at Marala Dam – the rate at which water is released from the dam – stood at 14,800 cusecs when IWT was suspended , dropped to 8,087 cusecs on May 2, surged to 55,148 cusecs on May 3, and then fell sharply to just 3,761 cusecs by May 6. The outflow spiked again to 18,331 cusecs on May 9, before dropping to 3,470 cusecs by May 16 and then peaked to 20,648 on May 20.Satellite images of the Baglihar Dam on the Indian side show flushing operations underway on May 1, matching both news reports and a visible change in river water colour on the imagery indicating mud and sediments. Over the next 10 days, the dam's gates remained closed until a sudden release on May 11. A similar pattern was observed the following week.Reservoir flushing, typically done annually, clears sediment buildup to restore storage capacity, boost turbine efficiency, and extend the life of hydroelectric plants.
Kishanganga, a small hydroelectric project with limited reservoir, opens all three gates in phases, then closes them together.
Before the suspension of the IWT, Pakistan routinely objected to this practice, as the flushing of silt and sediments not only increases downstream flow but can also potentially block irrigation canals. Conversely, refilling the reservoir by closing the gates can decrease the river water flow downstream for a short period.
While there are no drastic fluctuations in water levels at Pakistan's Mangla dam on the Jhelum river, data indicates periods of increased flow, likely resulting from upstream flushing activities by Indian authorities.Satellite images from the European Space Agency show the gates of the Kishanganga dam – the first major dam on the Jhelum's tributary – fully open on April 29. Over the next week, only one gate remained open until it was finally closed on May 21. Kishanganga, a run-of-the-river hydroelectric project, has a limited reservoir capacity of just 18.8 million cubic meters.advertisementNo clear pattern was observed over the month on the Indus River, as India currently has no operational storage dams on this stretch.
LONG-TERM PLANSAs part of long-term plans to utilise the waters of the rivers covered under the IWT, four additional power plants are proposed, which will allow India to utilise more water from the western rivers through associated reservoirs.The roadmap also outlines the revival of the long-stalled Tulbul navigation project on the Jhelum, enhancements to Wular Lake and the Jhelum river for improved flood control, lift irrigation projects to accelerate water utilisation, and the optimised use of the Ranbir and Pratap canals to ensure greater water availability for the Jammu region.Meanwhile, Pakistan has written to India expressing its willingness to restart dialogue regarding renegotiating the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which India has kept in abeyance following the Pahalgam terror attack. However, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has firmly stated that the suspension will remain in place 'until Pakistan credibly and irreversibly ends cross-border terrorism.'
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