Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview: 2025 NBA Finals prediction, schedule, who to watch

NBC Sports

2 days ago

In a few weeks we will have a new NBA Champion — for the seventh straight year — and a first-time champion. Technically. The Pacers have three ABA titles from the 1970s before joining the NBA, and the Thunder's predecessors, the Seattle SuperSonics, had one, but we're not counting any of that. The 2025 NBA Finals are about change, led by a new generation of stars that have taken over the league, even if you wouldn't know it watching the NBA's national broadcast schedule — neither of these teams played on Christmas Day.
Here is everything you need to know about the 2025 NBA Finals.
When does the Pacers vs. Thunder begin?
Indiana travels to Oklahoma City for Game 1 of the Finals on Thursday, June 5. This is a 2-2-1-1-1 format, but for the teams the travel isn't that bad between these Midwestern cities.
The Pacers & Thunder have their home arenas 688.4 air miles apart.
That is the shortest distance between the two teams' arenas in the NBA Finals since 1971 between the Milwaukee Bucks & Baltimore Bullets (641.6).
(via G. Harvey)
#NBA
Indiana vs. Oklahoma City Finals Schedule 2025
All times are Eastern (* = if necessary)
Game 1: Pacers at Thunder; Thu. June 5, 8:30, ABC
Game 2: Pacers at Thunder; Sun. June 8, 8, ABC
Game 3: Thunder at Pacers; Wed. June 11, 8:30, ABC
Game 4: Thunder at Pacers; Fri. June 13, 8:30, ABC
Game 5: Pacers at Thunder; Mon. June 16, 8:30, ABC*
Game 6: Thunder at Pacers; Thu. June 19, 8:30, ABC*
Game 7: Pacers at Thunder; Sun, June 22, 8 ABC*
Players to watch
Myles Turner
Taking too much from regular-season meetings when assessing how a matchup impacts players and teams can be a fool's errand, due to the differing circumstances. However, regarding Turner, it's clear that he will need to be more productive against the Thunder than he was in Indiana's two regular-season defeats if the Pacers are to win their first NBA title. Shooting 6-of-19 from the field, he averaged 11.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 2.5 blocks per game against Oklahoma City. And while Turner did shoot 56 percent from the field in the Eastern Conference Finals, he only averaged 3.2 rebounds per game. Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam will be the headliners for Indiana in this series, but they'll need Turner to be at his best to win this series.
—Raphielle Johnson, Rotoworld basketball analyst
Andrew Nembhard
Nembhard has been effective on both sides of the ball for Indiana over the last two postseasons, and he was the primary defender on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander during their two regular season matchups. SGA scored 78 points across those games, and per NBA.com's tracking, he shot 11-of-18 from the floor and scored 27 points with Nembhard as his matchup. Nembhard averaged 19.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists against OKC this season, so he'll need to continue to be effective on offense, but he simply needs to be able to slow SGA down if the Pacers are going to have a chance to win this series. Aaron Nesmith could also spend time guarding SGA, but it was Nembhard's job during the regular season. As of now, a lot of responsibility will rest on his shoulders to give the Pacers an opportunity to pull an upset.
—Noah Rubin, Rotoworld basketball analyst
Keys to watch for in Indiana vs. Oklahoma City
Turnovers & Transition
The Indiana Pacers want chaos on the court. They want a game played at a breakneck pace, forcing defensive cross-matches (if the team even gets back, the Knicks too often didn't). They want to force turnovers and turn the game into a track meet. They make quick decisions with plenty of player and ball movement, even in their half-court sets. The energy and pace at which they played almost seemed to surprise teams at points in the East playoffs.
Indiana's problem in the Finals: Oklahoma City thrives in chaos. The Thunder will not be surprised by the pace, they will welcome it — at points these NBA Finals will resemble the Olympic drill.
The Thunder have been better in transition than the Pacers this postseason. OKC's defense is a turnover forcing machine that scores 1.42 points per transition possession — Haliburton and Indiana are very good at taking care of the ball, but that will be tested in the Finals.
The Thunder have run more than the Pacers in these playoffs: The Thunder have started 15.6% of their playoff possessions in transition compared to 13.8% for Indiana, and the Thunder are scoring at a slightly higher rate on those opportunities.
OKC brings the best transition defense in the league to the table. This postseason, both Finals teams have been good at stopping their opponents from running on them — just 11% of Thunder opponent possessions started in possession, that is 11.8% for the Pacers. What Indiana has done well is limit teams, even in transition, giving up less than a point per possession in transition against them (OKC allows 1.15 points per possession in transition, still an impressive figure).
If Indiana is going to pull off the upset in this series, it must take care of the ball and not give the Thunder easy buckets going the other way. Indiana also is going to have to figure out how to score consistently in the half court against the best defense in the league because the easy transition buckets will not be there.
The midrange game is back
No player has attempted more midrange shots these playoffs than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and he is shooting 47.9% on them (according to the NBA's tracking stats). Indiana as a team has thrived in the midrange this postseason, taking 16.4% of their shots from there and hitting 48.7% of those.
In a league dominated by 3-pointers, both the Thunder and Pacers are comfortable taking what the defense gives them from the mid-range. We'll still see a lot of 3-pointers in this Finals matchup, especially if SGA and Haliburton are touching the paint on drives then kicking out to open shooters, but both are more than willing to win from the midrange. It's going to feel like a throwback series at times.
If one team dominates from there it will be a huge advantage.
Haliburton vs. Thunder defense
In the opening round, it was Ja Morant, who scored five points below his season average in the face of the Thunder's pressure defense and he was far less efficient, shooting just 41.5% (which was the same as the entire Grizzlies team). Next it was Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray, who shot just 40.5% against the Thunder (down from 47.4% during the regular season). Minnesota's All-NBA Anthony Edwards had an up-and-down series against the Thunder and when it was over described their defense as '15 puppets on one string.'
While Tyrese Haliburton has had a brilliant playoffs, when the Knicks cranked up the ball pressure in Game 5 — picking him up out high and being more physical — Haliburton faded into the background for a game. While that game was an outlier this postseason, and he responded to the pressure in Game 6, Haliburton has had similar games before when teams get physical with him.
Oklahoma City is going to get physical with him. And be relentless. Lu Dort is likely to start on Haliburton, but Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso will all get their turns. There will be swarming double teams and guys jumping passing lanes as he tries to outlet away from the pressure.
For the Pacers to have a chance at the upset in this series, Haliburton has to rise above that and be able to orchestrate the Pacers' offense at the pace they want. That's a lot easier said than done, but Haliburton is playing at his peak. He's going to have to find a new level in this series for Indiana to pull the upset.
—Kurt Helin, NBC Sports lead NBA writer
Best Bets for Finals
I went with the Thunder in 5 (+250) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win the Finals MVP in a landslide (-550).
For lunch money, I played the series exact outcomes at +650 and +820. They involve OKC winning Games 1, 2, 4 and 5, with Indiana taking Game 3 (+650) and for the second, OKC winning Games 1, 2, 3, and 5, leaving Indiana to win Game 4 (+820). Those exact outcomes are the second and third favorites in terms of odds behind an OKC sweep (+330).
—Vaughn Dalzell, NBC Sports Betting Analyst
Predictions
Indiana's unique, constantly moving offense and excellent coaching gives them a high floor in any series. They need a ceiling to beat a historic OKC team, though — and that is probably lacking.
Obi Toppin, TJ McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, Thomas Bryant and Ben Sheppard could all hang through the East — expect them to be Indy's downfall, though, against OKC's relentless pressure.
My numbers support a clear advantage for the Thunder in these finals with the home team better by 9.5 points in Games 1 and 2 and 5 points to the good in Indiana. Overall, this gives OKC fair odds of -861, or an 89% chance to lift the Larry O'Brien.
Considering this is new territory for a young team and because the Pacers present a few unique challenges, it's reasonable to expect we will see at least 5 games to decide our champion. Predicting the Thunder will clinch at home in Game 5 where they have been absolutely sublime this postseason. Fittingly, SGA completes the MVP sweep in doing so.
Indiana has had one of the most memorable and miraculous runs to the NBA Finals over the last 25 years, but it's about to come to an overwhelming end versus Oklahoma City.
OKC is the much deeper team with more three-and-D players that can stretch the floor and limit Indiana. Outside of Haliburton or Siakam, I have trust issues with the Pacers' role/bench players' ability to score in this series.
There's a reason why the Oklahoma City Thunder (-700) are the biggest NBA Finals favorites since the 2018 Golden State Warriors. In the regular season, the Thunder had the third-highest offensive rating and the highest defensive rating.
The Thunder have two players on the NBA All-Defensive Teams. That's not including Alex Caruso, who was the best defender on the team, but ineligible to make the squad. The NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander also leads the Thunder's offense. Offensively stout, and they have depth to mix it up both offensively and defensively.
The Pacers are insanely talented and deserve to be in the Finals. It's just the Thunder are playing on another level right now.
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
In broad strokes, the Pacers and Thunder want to play a similar style of game — both prefer the game to feel chaotic. They spread the floor and move the ball, and both are happy to get out and run, all of which should make for an entertaining NBA Finals.
Here's Indiana's problem: Tyrese Haliburton is outstanding, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is just better; Indiana's defense is improved and can force turnovers, but OKC's is elite and just better; Myles Turner is good, but Chet Holmgren is just better (especially paired with Isiah Hartenstein); the Pacers bench was good enough for the East, but the Thunder bench is just better. And so it goes down the line. Indiana is a quality team that's about to get overwhelmed.