CNA Explains: What's next for Thailand as calls grow for PM Paetongtarn to resign?

CNA

5 hours ago

SINGAPORE: Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is facing growing calls to resign after just 10 months in power.
Her leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen in the midst of both countries' border row led to the exit of a key coalition partner on Wednesday (Jun 18), leaving her government hanging by a thread.
In the phone call – which Hun Sen recorded and shared with about 80 people including members of his party's standing committee – Paetongtarn is heard referring to Thai Second Army Region Commander Lt Gen Boonsin Padklang as 'an opponent'.
The remark has triggered her major coalition partner, the Bhumjaithai party, which holds 71 seats, to withdraw from the government, reducing the coalition's strength to 261 seats as of Friday. She needs at least 248 seats for a majority.
The United Thai Nation Party, which holds 36 seats, is reportedly weighing its position and has called for the 38-year-old prime minister to resign.
Political analysts said Paetongtarn's leadership is now 'untenable', describing the leaked conversation as 'deeply compromising' to her position, and damaging to Thailand.
'I think there's no way she's going to last,' political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University told CNA.
What is likely to happen in the next few days?
Paetongtarn and her Pheu Thai party 'will do all they can to stay in power' and this could potentially involve the premier's father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, observers said.
'Paetongtarn and especially her father Thaksin will try to persuade the coalition members to stay on board, perhaps by offering them additional ministries (Cabinet posts) or other incentives,' said Duncan McCargo, President's Chair in Global Affairs at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University (NTU).
'They will also work behind the scenes to try and convince the country's elite actors that they still offer the most effective means of maintaining control of the government, and that any other scenario risks instability and potential protests,' McCargo added.
The remaining coalition partners – which consist of 10 parties, namely United Thai Nation, Kia Tham, Democrat, Chart Thai Pattana, Prachachart, Chart Pattana, Thai Ruam Palang, Thai Liberal, New Democracy and Thai Progress – will likely take into consideration the 'popular sentiment', as well as pressure from the military and the palace, analysts said.
Both the military and the palace are key institutions in the country's political landscape.
Besides the popular sentiment that has been 'riled up' following the controversial phone call, the military will likely want to have its say in what goes forward, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute's Michael Montesano said in an interview with the programme CNA Asia First.
Amid public calls to withdraw from the coalition, key partner parties Kia Tham, Prachachart, Democrat, and Chart Thai Pattana have decided to remain following party meetings on Thursday.
The United Thai Nation, the second largest party remaining in the coalition, has said that it will only make a definite decision after holding talks with the prime minister. It has, however, called for Paetongtarn to resign, reported local media.
News site Khaosod English reported the party is proposing that Pheu Thai's third-ranked candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, replace Paetongtarn.
Meanwhile, the Democrat Party on Friday issued a statement following a meeting of its executive committee the previous day. It confirmed its decision to remain a coalition partner in the government to continue managing the country's affairs and address the ongoing issues Thailand faces, media outlet The Nation reported.
Party spokesperson Jenjira Rattanaphian admitted there were differing opinions but emphasised the party remains unified.
Reports, however, noted that at least three of its deputy leaders said during the meeting that they might reconsider their roles within the party in light of the political situation.
Chart Thai Pattana party leader Varawut Silpa-archa – who is also the Minister of Social Development and Human Security – has also emphasised national security and the need for a strong government, reported The Nation.
'Regarding the situation at the Thai-Cambodian border, a strong government is crucial for ensuring territorial sovereignty. Therefore, we wish to speak with the prime minister first as we still lack complete information,' Varawut was quoted as saying by The Nation, referring to the leaked phone conversation.
What happens if the United Thai Nation Party or others quit?
Pheu Thai will need to do everything it can to 'salvage the government's parliamentary majority in order to prevent a dissolution of parliament', Ken Mathis Lohatepanont from the Department of Political Science at the University of Michigan in the United States told CNA.
Lohatepanont outlined two possibilities for the ruling party: Replace Paetongtarn with another candidate to preserve its alliance with the United Thai Nation Party, or retain Paetongtarn and risk United Thai Nation's departure.
If United Thai Nation does withdraw, the ruling coalition will lose 36 seats and become a minority government.
Analysts told CNA that while a minority government is possible, it would face significant challenges in passing key legislation.
Without a majority, Pheu Thai would have to lobby for opposition support on key measures such as the budget and this risks triggering broader street protests, McCargo from NTU said.
'It makes (Pheu Thai) hostage to the preferences and whims of small parties. It will likely be a very dysfunctional minority government that cannot get anything done,' said Thithinan. 'There will be constant squabbling, constant crisis.'
Lohatepanont, who is a PhD candidate, agreed.
'Being dependent on disloyal MPs is a fraught business and leaves the government highly vulnerable to future switches in loyalties,' he said.
Observers have said it is unlikely for the opposition bloc to form an alternative coalition.
'The People's Party holds the most seats in the opposition bloc but it is hard to see how the People's Party and the Bhumjaithai could cooperate,' said ISEAS fellow Eugene Mark.
People's Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut said on Friday there is no possibility of his party and Bhumjaithai forming a government with the latter's leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, as Prime Minister, reported The Nation.
In the 2023 election, Move Forward – the forerunner of the People's Party – won the most seats but was blocked from taking power by an unelected senate, paving the way for second-placed Pheu Thai to cobble together a coalition and form the government.
What happens if Paetongtarn resigns?
If Paetongtarn resigns – or if her party opts to replace her to keep United Thai Nation or other parties in the coalition – Pheu Thai is likely to nominate a new candidate for prime minister.
'On paper, a PM nominee needs a simple majority of 248 votes out of 495 to secure premiership,' said Mark, who is co-coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme at Singapore's ISEAS.
Observers predict that Chaikasem, a senior figure within Pheu Thai, is the most likely candidate to replace Paetongtarn should she step down.
However, his reported ill health has raised doubts on whether his premiership will be enduring.
Chaikasem, a former attorney-general, was one of Pheu Thai's three original PM candidates in the 2023 election.
In the wake of the Thai Constitutional Court ordering the dismissal of then-PM Srettha Thavisin in August last year, Paetongtarn was nominated for the role ahead of Chaikasem, a move that analysts said showed the party's "strategy to stand by the youth movement".
McCargo and Lohatepanont told CNA that other party leaders could also emerge as contenders to lead a new administration. Among them is Pirapan Salirathavibhaga of the United Thai Nation, who is also Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy.
Pirapan, however, commands relatively few Members of Parliament, which would limit his authority within the government, said Lohatepanont.
'I would expect it to be a short-term arrangement where the government works to pass the national budget, and then eventually the House of Representatives is dissolved,' he added.
If this happens, Thailand would see its third prime minister since the ouster of Srettha last August.
Will there be a snap election?
Parliament could be dissolved for fresh elections to be held, observers said.
'If the government truly goes significantly below the minimum governing majority, I would expect a dissolution of parliament to pre-empt a vote of no confidence,' said Lohatepanont.
But the crisis will likely damage the Pheu Thai party's standing further, making it even more challenging to head into fresh polls, according to analysts.
'I doubt that the Pheu Thai Party is ready for an election. Their core policy pledges remain unfulfilled, the economy is weak, and Paetongtarn's scandal has only added to their unpopularity,' said Lohatepanont.
A snap election may not favour some current and former members of the ruling coalition, including Bhumjaithai, and may instead be to the People's Party's advantage, said Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University.
'This is more about pressuring the prime minister to resign than dissolving parliament,' Olarn said.
Asked about the possibility of a coup amid the political turmoil, observers said the conditions are not there for the military to seize power.
'The two past coups happened after the democratic process reached a dead end due to elections being boycotted by opposition parties,' Lohatepanont said.
Montesano from ISEAS said that the military is 'definitely concerned' by political developments, given the border tensions with Cambodia and the leaked phone call.
While the military is 'putting a brave face on things', it has been 'offended very gravely by a prime minister who has accused one of its leading officers as being a member of the political opposition', he told CNA Asia First.
'The essence of this game is to stand back and see how things play out, rather than to be seen taking the initiative in toppling a government or manipulating coalition members again,' he added.
There have been multiple coups in Thailand over the last eight decades, including two against governments led by the Shinawatra family. The last coup was in 2014 against Paetongtarn's aunt Yingluck.
This is not the first time Paetongtarn has faced pressure to resign.
In March this year, she survived a no-confidence vote in parliament after the opposition argued she had been unduly influenced by her father Thaksin. It accused her of tax evasion and mishandling many of the country's problems, including the slumping economy and corruption.
Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said last month Thailand's economic growth may slow over the next two years due to steep US tariffs. Industry leaders have expressed growing concern over the political turmoil, warning that it may further weaken the country's economic outlook in the second half of the year.