South Africa producer inflation unchanged at 0.5% y/y in April
JOHANNESBURG, May 29 (Reuters) - South Africa's producer inflation was at 0.5% year on year in April, unchanged from March, statistics agency data showed on Thursday.
The Producer Price Index increased 0.5% month on month in April, Statistics South Africa said.
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Reuters
34 minutes ago
- Reuters
Trading Day: Market inflection points abound
ORLANDO, Florida, June 3 (Reuters) - By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Stocks and the dollar rose solidly on Tuesday even though markets lacked a central, driving force - signs of weakening economic activity, cooling labor markets and disinflation are all reasons for caution, but risk appetite continues to be fueled by hopes that U.S.-China trade tensions will soon ease. In my column today I look at why foreign investors' exposure to U.S. assets may not be as high as feared. If it's not, the potential downside for Wall Street and Treasuries from diversification may be less severe. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves Market inflection points abound Evidence is mounting that global economic activity is slowing, but this is failing to move the dial much for markets. Investors know growth is slowing and that the second half of the year will be challenging, so that's already 'in the price'. Hopes of a de-escalation in the trade standoff between the U.S. and China, and for bilateral deals between the U.S. and other key trading partners soon are supporting risk assets. The S&P 500 hit a three-month high on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq and MSCI World index climbed to levels last visited in February. It is the strength on Wall Street, most latterly tech, that is lifting global stocks as benchmark Asian and European indices are flatlining. On the whole, policymakers continue to stress that they are data-dependent and will move on rates carefully and calmly. That was the message from various Fed officials this week and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday. It's a slightly different - although no less challenging - situation in mainland Europe, where figures on Tuesday showed disinflationary forces are driving consumer prices as much as anything else. Euro zone inflation dipped below the European Central Bank's 2% target in May, cementing expectations rates will be cut this week and later this year. Meanwhile, Switzerland experienced outright year-on-year deflation for the first time in four years, raising the possibility that the Swiss National Bank may soon reintroduce negative interest rates. Canada's central bank is expected to hold interest rates at 2.75% on Wednesday for a second meeting. Growth and inflation have been surprisingly sticky this year, and rates have been slashed by 225 basis points since last June. As UBS analysts note, markets are generally at an inflection point, waiting for the catalyst that will break them out of the narrow ranges that have broadly held since the U.S. and China announced a temporary reduction on tariffs on May 12. Even Wall Street and the dollar - one creeping higher, the other drifting lower - are awaiting a trigger for a proper breakout. Could the telephone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping expected later this week be it? Foreign exposure to U.S. assets may be lower than feared It is widely believed that investors around the world have a disproportionately high exposure to U.S. assets, particularly stocks, an imbalance that could roil U.S. markets if corrected. But what if these fears are overblown? Several eye-popping statistics suggest that America's weight in world financial markets is even greater than its outsized economic might. Most strikingly, the U.S. net international investment position (NIIP), or foreign investors' holdings of U.S. assets less U.S. investors' holdings of overseas assets, at the end of 2024 was $26 trillion. That's nearly 24% of global GDP, up from 16% only two years earlier, a surge driven by foreigners' insatiable appetite for U.S. equities, mainly "Big Tech". Demand was so hot that, by some measures, the value of U.S.-listed stocks at the turn of the year represented 74% of total global market cap. That share was 60% six years ago, and less than half in 2011. But the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets is now being questioned, as the often erratic policies of U.S. President Donald Trump have upset longstanding economic and geopolitical norms, making governments and investors question whether Washington is still a reliable partner on the global stage. The concern is that this eroding confidence triggers a reversal of the massive flows into Wall Street seen in recent years that has damaging spillover effects. Such a correction may not require outright selling. Given the scale of the flows involved, just less buying among foreign investors could be enough to cast a shadow over the world's most important stock market. And the running assumption is foreign investors don't have the capacity or willingness to increase their exposure to U.S. assets, creating a significant long-term downside risk for Wall Street, Treasuries and the dollar. "A structural shift is underway: the slow erosion of US economic dominance," analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote on Monday. But looked at another way, foreign exposure to U.S. assets may not be as high as initially meets the eye. That's the view of analysts at JP Morgan, who measure portfolio investment in U.S. bonds and equities as a share of countries' total household sector financial assets. They use a broad definition for a country's "household" sector, covering investments by institutions like insurance companies and pension funds that are ultimately made on behalf of households. Using a broad range of data, from central banks, U.S. Treasury and OECD household financial asset flows, they measure the ratio of U.S. equity and bond holdings relative to household financial assets in each country. They find that "relative to the total financial assets of households in the rest of the world, the allocations to U.S. assets typically stand at around 10-20%." As a result, they are "skeptical of the idea that foreign investors hold too much of U.S. assets." Given that U.S. equities account for more than 70% of the MSCI global market cap and dollar-denominated bonds represent around 50% of global bond indices, according to JP Morgan estimates, the 10-20% exposure of foreign investors to U.S. assets does appear surprisingly low. And the 10-20% figure would be even lower were it not for the outsized U.S. equity holdings at the Swiss National Bank and Norway's sovereign wealth fund. On the bond side, foreigners' footprint in the U.S. Treasury market is shrinking. Data shows that they owned 31% of the $28.55 trillion outstanding Treasury debt at the end of last year. That share has been declining steadily since the Global Financial Crisis. In 2008, the figure was approaching 60%. Overseas investors' share of the T-bill market has shrunk even more. In December, it was under 20%, near its lowest level on record and sharply down from 50% a decade before. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team at JP Morgan aren't arguing investors will or should ramp up their purchases of U.S. assets. And in cases where allocations are high - such as the Taiwanese exposure to U.S. bonds or Canadians' holdings of U.S. stocks - diversification would hardly be a surprise. But there is "little indication" of broad-based selling of U.S. assets by foreign investors so far this year, they note. And if that selling does materialize, it may be far lighter than many expect. What could move markets tomorrow? Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
CrowdStrike forecasts second-quarter revenue below estimates
June 3 (Reuters) - CrowdStrike (CRWD.O), opens new tab forecast second-quarter revenue below estimates, signaling soft enterprise spending on cybersecurity products, sending the company's shares down 6.7% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. Higher interest rates and sticky inflation have forced clients to rein in tech spending, weighing on demand for companies such as CrowdStrike, despite an increasing need for robust cybersecurity solutions due to rising threats and ransomware attacks. CrowdStrike also faces stiff competition from other cybersecurity firms including Palo Alto Networks (PANW.O), opens new tab and Fortinet (FTNT.O), opens new tab. CrowdStrike expects second-quarter revenue to be between $1.14 billion and $1.15 billion, compared with analysts' average estimate of $1.16 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Reuters
2 hours ago
- Reuters
South Korea's new leader to seek more time for US trade talks
SEOUL, June 4 (Reuters) - The new South Korean administration will likely make efforts to buy time for U.S. trade talks, as it studies the negotiations of bigger neighbours Japan and China for leverage, according to sources familiar with the ruling party's thinking. President Lee Jae-myung, who took office hours after winning the June 3 snap presidential election without a usual two-month transition period, said on the eve of the elections that "the most pressing matter is trade negotiations with the United States." The future of South Korea's export-oriented economy will hinge on what kind of deal Lee can strike, with all of his country's key sectors from chips to autos and shipbuilding heavily exposed to global trade. The new president and his liberal Democratic Party government inherit an economy that is expected to grow this year by a grim 0.8%, the weakest since 2020, and will need to unify a country deeply polarised by ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol's botched martial law attempt. South Korea and other countries may face further pressure, as a draft letter seen by Reuters showed the Trump administration wanted countries to provide their best offer on trade negotiations by Wednesday. A trade ministry official declined to confirm if Seoul had received the letter. But the transition of power after a six-month leadership vacuum provides Seoul with an excuse to slow down its negotiations and observe Washington's tariff talks with other countries, lawmakers, officials and trade experts from the Democratic Party said. "The new administration will need to take a fresh look at the overall framework of the negotiations and that will be a buffer to buy time, which the U.S. cannot reject," said a trade expert who took part in brainstorming for Lee's trade strategies. The sources added the administration may not be able to immediately ask Trump for an extension, and Lee's top diplomacy adviser has said he sees such a request being considered only after reviewing the progress. Still, prolonged negotiations by other countries may help to buy Seoul time. "It will be strategically right to take a wait-and-see stance because the situation is changing within the United States and around negotiations of other countries," one lawmaker said. South Korea, a major U.S. ally and one of the first countries to engage with Washington after Japan, agreed in late April to craft a "July package" scrapping levies before the 90-day pause on Trump's reciprocal tariffs is lifted, but progress was disrupted by continued upheavals in South Korea's leadership. Lee has since stressed there is no need to rush into clinching a deal and the deadline of July 8 set between Seoul and Washington should be reconsidered. During his election campaign, Lee did not make specific comments about contentious issues around the trade talks. That "silence" was a strategic move, a party official said. Trump's across-the-board tariffs on trading partners, including 25% duties on South Korea, have been the subject of ongoing litigation, but remain in place. "For different reasons, China and Japan will be references for us, with the former on the possibility of U.S. policy changes and the latter on how to make moves under a similar circumstance," another trade expert said. Japan, another U.S. ally slapped with 24% tariffs, no longer sees merit in striking a quick deal, unless it is granted an exemption from 25% product-specific duties on its key industry of automobiles, also a major sector for South Korea. China agreed with the U.S. to significantly unwind their tariffs on each other in a 90-day truce signed in mid-May, but Trump last week accused Beijing of violating the agreement and threatened to take tougher actions. When it comes to joint responses to U.S. tariffs, there is a higher possibility with Japan than China, two sources said, citing shared interest in energy purchases and auto tariffs. Lee's party expects there to be some "two-track" transitional period, with current officials continuing negotiations as the new administration formulates its strategies, according to the official. Given its strength in key sectors of U.S. interest, such as shipbuilding and technology, some analysts see South Korea as better positioned than others in the region, as Seoul prepares a separate package of industrial cooperation for bargaining power. "Successful outcomes require offers that support the president's domestic agenda, and this will be comparatively easy for Korea given its importance in politically sensitive industries," said Jay Truesdale, a former U.S. diplomat and CEO of TD International, an advisory firm in Washington, D.C. Kathleen Oh, Morgan Stanley's chief Korea and Taiwan economist, said: "We believe there may be more channels and enough scope for Korea to work out a deal compared to, let's say, its exporting peer Taiwan." South Korea has the scope to decrease its trade surplus with the U.S. via more import purchases, while it can also offer to lower tariffs on agricultural products, particularly rice, quoted by Trump as a high tariff example, Oh said. But, for the Lee administration, that is more the reason it does not have to rush, the second trade expert said. "In the worst-case scenario, if tariffs are adjusted after we sign an agreement, that might mean we made unnecessary concessions," the source said, adding "it's not like we don't have any leverage".
