Odds of 'city killer' asteroid hitting Moon increases – what does that mean for us?
Hiyah Zaidi Published June 11, 2025 3:58pm Updated June 11, 2025 3:58pm Link is copied Comments Earlier this year, researchers told us that there was an asteroid so big that could demolish a city — and it was heading our way. The 2024 YR4 asteroid was, at its highest, given a 3.1% chance of hitting the Earth at 2.02pm on December 22, 2032. Soon after, the projection of the asteroid was recalculated, and that chance fell to zero. But there was a small chance it would hit the Moon – and now that chance has increased (Picture: Getty) New data from the James Webb Space Telescope has meant that astronomers have refined their predictions of the asteroid's orbit, and this new information will help our understanding of 2024 YR4. Nasa says that the data from the Webb improved their knowledge of where the asteroid will go by nearly 20% (Picture: Getty) Previously, it was thought that the asteroid has a 3.8% chance of hitting the Moon. But now that chance has increased to 4.3%. However, this does mean there is still over a 95% chance that it will miss the Moon, and Nasa has reassured that the object poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond. It would not even move the Moon's orbit which means nothing on Earth will change (Picture: Getty) If 2024 YR4 did hit the Moon, it would be one of the largest asteroids in recent history to hit the lunar surface. But, this could provide crucial data to prepare for future planetary defence operations. However, Nasa says the asteroid is currently too far to be detected with Earth-based telescopes. They said: 'Nasa's James Webb Space Telescope captured one more image of the asteroid before it slipped out of view in its orbit around the Sun' (Picture: MetaBallStudios / SWNS) In April, new data from the James Webb Space Telescope revealed the size of the space rock, which was previously estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters (131 to 295 feet). But now it is believed to be 53 to 67 meters, roughly the height of a 15-story building. It is thought to be made of a rocky substance rather than more robust materials like iron, so if it was ever to enter Earth's atmosphere, there could be a chance it would break into smaller pieces (Picture: European Space Agency) The American space agency uses a wide range of telescopes, both ground based and space based, to detect space objects. Near Earth Objects or NEOs are detected by comparing multiple images taken a few minutes apart of the same region of the sky. Most of the objects appealing in these pictures are stars and galaxies and their positions are fixed, so a moving NEO would be noticed since it would be in a slightly different position each time (Picture: Getty) In 2022, Nasa intentionally smashed a spacecraft into an asteroid called Dimorphos. The test was called the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), and was intended as a dress rehearsal if a similar object ever threatens Earth. The mission was a success and the spacecraft that slammed into Dimorphos managed to shift its orbit by around 32 minutes, meaning it knocked it off course (Picture: Getty)
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