Why Philippines' poorest voters may not back hardline anti-China candidates

South China Morning Post

02-05-2025

With less than two weeks to go before the
Philippines ' midterm elections, a new survey shows a surprising divergence in voter preferences over Manila's maritime dispute with China – particularly among the country's poorest.
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While an overwhelming 75 per cent of Filipinos say they prefer Senate candidates who will assert the Philippines' rights over the West Philippine Sea – Manila's name for parts of the
South China Sea within its exclusive economic zone – that number drops sharply among the nation's most economically vulnerable, according to a survey by pollster Social Weather Stations, commissioned by the Stratbase Group.
Among Filipinos in class E – those living below the poverty line – 41 per cent said they would vote for candidates who do not plan to assert the country's maritime claims, far higher than the national average of 25 per cent.
Analysts have linked the trend to the reach of China-backed disinformation and the dominance of bread-and-butter issues for lower-income voters, many of whom are more concerned with economic survival than foreign policy.
A woman sorts plastic items from piles of rubbish to be sold at recycling shops in Manila. Over 40 per cent of Filipinos living below the poverty line say they would vote for candidates who do not plan to assert the country's maritime claims. Photo: AFP
Dindo Manhit, president of Stratbase, said the results showed how disinformation had disproportionately influenced class E voters, making them 'the primary targets and victims' of Beijing's information operations ahead of the elections on May 12.