Has Nigel Farage just snatched defeat from the jaws of victory?

Telegraph

3 days ago

You can take the lad out of England but you can't really take the English nationalist out of the lad. Has that become the issue in the Hamilton Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election when the polling stations open?
It is the increasingly prevalent view of Nigel Farage's opponents following his demand for what he called a 'review' – although I'm sure he really meant the abolition – of the Barnett formula, which has been used for more than fifty years to calculate how much the UK's nations and regions should receive from the Treasury.
It is but the latest of the signs, say SNP, Labour and Tories, that Mr Farage knows nothing about Scotland.
The cash Barnett produces for Scotland has become a running sore in relations between many in England and Scotland in recent years as the gap in funding between the two has grown and grown. Official figures now show that Scots now get an average £2400 more per person than those in England – a record amount.
But to successive Labour, Tory and coalition UK governments, the Barnett largesse is regarded as the 'Union dividend' which helps Scotland remain a key part of the United Kingdom.
Ditching what is seen as this 'Barnett bounty' for Scotland – due to reach £50 billion this year – would, say Reform's critics, be a boost for the SNP and its perpetual demand for independence.
David Mundell, the former Conservative Scottish Secretary, said: 'This proves that Reform isn't a Unionist Party, instead it's a populist party that wouldn't stand up for the Union.'
The Reform UK leader's view is that the system, devised by Labour's Treasury Chief Secretary in the 1970s, was out of date and should be scrapped, throwing a massive hand grenade into the already bad tempered campaign for Thursday's by-election in Hamilton, Stonehouse and Larkhall.
Most Scottish politicians have insisted that the difference in average spending north and south of the border, thanks to Barnett, was justified because of poor health standards in Scotland and a widely scattered population, often in remote regions, including island communities.
Mr Farage's view, shared by many in English voters, is that the money paid to Scotland through Barnett formula should be replaced by the devolved Scottish government being able to raise more of its own revenue through increased growth … and presumably higher taxes.
But with the cash provided by the UK Treasury through Barnett, the so-called block grant, due to reach £50 billion this year he said that Scotland needed a 'thriving economy', instead of one heading in the wrong direction.
Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay said the Farage demand would 'take a wrecking ball' to Scotland's public services and bring misery to Scottish families, workers and businesses.
The main plank – indeed its only plank – of Labour's campaign is to bank heavily on the voters taking an active personal dislike to Mr Farage. They constantly place a heavy emphasis on how little he knows about Scotland while ordinary voters 'see right through him', according to Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. That and his alleged views on race which his critics say will count against him and which Mr Farage denies.
Mr Sarwar also described his Reform counterpart as a 'chief clown', while 'crashing his own campaign' was the view of another leading Labour strategist over Mr Farage's idea of ending Barnett as it would have serious repercussions for Scottish public services, such as education and the NHS.
But this doesn't seem to have bothered Nigel Farage overmuch, as he captured two more defectors this week – one councillor each from Labour and Conservatives.
The battle on Thursday is shaping up to be a straight fight between the SNP and Reform, with Labour struggling to stay in the race while hoping that the voters in Hamilton record their lack of fellow feeling – and then some – for the leader of Reform UK.