Senate rankings: The 5 seats most likely to flip

The Hill

2 days ago

The 2026 midterm cycle is already bustling with activity as Senate Republicans gear up to defend their majority and Democrats try to reverse course from a difficult few years and chart a path forward.
The fields are starting to take shape as incumbents decide whether to run again, candidates launch campaigns and party leaders attempt to woo their top choices.
It's all happening against the backdrop of constant action at the White House and Congress' push to enact President Trump's massive tax bill — both of which will play outsize roles in the coming cycle.
Here's an early look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.) is considered the most vulnerable Democrat on the Senate map and Republicans have eagerly been awaiting the chance to win back the seat.
But they were barely a quarter of the way into the cycle when Republicans got their first big piece of bad recruitment news: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) decided against a Senate bid, depriving the GOP of its top choice across the entire 2026 map.
His decision scrambled the race. Not only did it deprive the GOP of a top-tier candidate in a crucial race, it also increases the chances of a bloody primary.
'Kemp is the 1:1 on the board. Full stop,' one GOP operative said. 'This is a situation where you want a primary. Where you want them to show their mettle because I just don't think that we have a clear enough indication on any of these guys to say they can do it.'
Multiple Republicans indicated they expect a primary much like what happened in Ohio last year: a crowded field of B-tier candidates, many of whom will prompt more questions than answers.
The field is already starting to take shape. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) is in, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is out and operatives believe Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) may follow Carter into the primary.
More are likely to go for it, but none that are considered heavy hitters at this stage. Top party figures have been hoping for freshman Rep. Brian Jack (R-Ga.) to take the plunge, but few expect him to do so. There have also been murmurs around Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins and Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler — but nothing more.
Republicans concede Ossoff will be to beat without Kemp, pointing to his growing war chest, battle-tested history and penchant for avoiding missteps during his term.
GOP operatives, though, see openings to whack him over support for transgender women in sports and steadfast opposition to Trump.
'I am bullish on Jon Ossoff. … He's done a great job. He's centered the people of Georgia and their needs and their concerns,' Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) told The Hill, arguing that the GOP's 'one big, beautiful bill' will be an albatross at the ballot box.
'I'd hate to have to run as a Republican in this moment,' he added.
If Democrats are going to make any headway toward winning back the majority, toppling Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is a must.
And for now, they are waiting to find out whether Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is in or out for what would be the marquee matchup on the board.
Much like Kemp in Georgia, Cooper is a popular two-term governor who would easily give his party the best chance of flipping a seat and avoiding a messy primary. Democrats are hopeful that Cooper will not follow the lead of numerous governors over the past decade who have spurned bids for the upper chamber.
'They've got to convince him that serving in the Senate is better than spending time with his family,' one Democratic operative with North Carolina ties said of party leaders. 'That's a hard sell.'
Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.) has already announced a bid.
Whoever the Democratic nominee is will have to face an incumbent Republican who has twice won close contests. But for Tillis, squaring off against a popular governor in a year when the mood of the country might not be in the GOP's corner would likely make it his toughest political bout yet.
Adding to his issues is potential GOP primary as some conservatives continue to cry foul over his work with Democrats in recent years.
But Republicans remain confident as the state's rightward tilt stayed true in November. Governors past and present also have found that running for the upper chamber is a different animal, potentially giving Tillis another boost.
Does anyone want to face off with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) next year?
That's the question on the minds of top politicos as Democrats struggle to find a viable candidate against the Maine centrist after the party failed spectacularly to defeat her in 2020, leaving them burned in the New England state heading into next year.
The latest blow came as Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) announced he will run for his toss-up House seat once again rather than mount a statewide bid.
That's leaving Democrats to pin their hopes on Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) throwing her hat in the ring — but Mills hasn't sounded overly enthusiastic about a potential bid.
'I'm not planning to do anything right now, I'm just — I'm not planning to run for anything,' Mills told a local outlet in late April. 'Things change week to week, month to month, but I'm not … at this moment, I'm not planning to run for another office.'
The reticence comes after Sara Gideon vastly outraised and outspent the five-term senator in 2020, only to see her polling advantage evaporate come election day. Collins won by eight percentage points, owing in large part to her long-standing connections to the state.
'In general, for any senator who's served their state and been out there and talking to the voters and engaging them and working to solve those problems, they're going to be effective with their voters to gain their support,' said Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), who ran the Democratic Senatorial Committee during the 2020 cycle.
'From what I have seen from so many of my colleagues and Republican colleagues, that's the winning combination,' she added.
Nevertheless, Maine remains a blue state and the last one to not change parties as part of the realignment that finally saw Montana and West Virginia fall into GOP hands last year. This and some troublesome polls are keeping that glimmer of hope alive for some Democrats.
One Democratic operative made clear to The Hill that there remains donor interest in playing ball —- but only if a 'legit candidate' takes the plunge.
It's not even halfway through the off-year and the Michigan Democratic primary is already the leader in the clubhouse to become the most contentious of the 2026 cycle as a trio of key players look to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) in the Wolverine State.
Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), former health director Abdul El-Sayed, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) and former Michigan state House Speaker Joe Tate have all launched bids in recent months.
Stevens, the favorite of Washington Democrats, is the initial leader with 34 percent, according to a new survey released last week. That's a 12-point advantage over El-Sayed, who has Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-Vt.) backing.
But the presence of the two is giving Democrats agita over what is becoming a proxy battle between the party establishment and progressive forces, with that battle stretching into one over Israel and Palestine.
'It's basically a [Hillary Clinton] versus Bernie type fight,' said one Democratic operative with Michigan ties.
As for McMorrow, she is the dark horse. The state senator, who has seen her star rise in recent years, is pitching herself as part of a new generation of Democrats, having said she will not back Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) for his current post. She is also using the Pete Buttigieg playbook of flooding the zone media wise.
Democrats maintain they are unconcerned with a testy primary and believe it will be a net-positive come general election time.
'I've never been opposed to primaries when I was [DSCC] chair,' said Peters, who chaired the committee in both 2022 and 2024. 'A primary can be constructive. … I would hope they wouldn't cross the line and attack each other, although that's always sometimes difficult. But … a primary can really strengthen a candidate before they get into the real show.'
Across the aisle, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) is once again the party's top choice to become its nominee. But unlike his 2024 run, he might have a primary on his hands as Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) is moving closer to running.
Of course, winning in the state will be difficult for any Republican. Michigan has not elected a Republican to the Senate in more than 30 years.
New Hampshire is considered a must-win state for Democrats in 2026.
And they are breathing easy despite Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's (D-N.H.) retirement as Rep. Chris Pappas' (D-N.H.) presence gives the party a top-tier candidate.
Shaheen, a three-term lawmaker and ex-New Hampshire governor, has been a formidable force in the state's political scene for years and is set to leave a major void in the Democratic-leaning state.
However, Democrats remain bullish that the seat will remain in the party's hands. Of all the states on this list, New Hampshire is the only one former Vice President Kamala Harris carried last year. It is also the only one, other than Georgia, that is unlikely to have a knock-out, drag out Democratic primary that could prove damaging in a general election.
The major questions reside on the Republican side as former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) is eyeing a second run in the Granite state 12 years after he narrowly lost to Shaheen.
According to a source familiar with the ex-senator, Brown is continuing to take a 'hard look' at a bid and has been traveling around the state, attending party events and doing his 'due diligence.' He also was spotted on Capitol Hill making the rounds in March.
A decision is expected by early fall.
Brown was dogged in his 2014 run over accusations that he was a carpetbagger, having run two years prior for reelection in Massachusetts. Republicans are widely expecting that attack once again, especially in contrast to the Pappas family's longstanding ties to the state.
'The problem is the Pappas family is New Hampshire,' the GOP operative said.
What isn't clear is what the GOP's fallback options are in a state where they likely need everything to break right to have a chance. No Republican has nabbed a Senate seat in the state in 15 years, though the party has held the governorship since 2017.