Israel ‘ready to strike Iran' as US evacuates bases and embassies

Telegraph

2 days ago

Israel is considering launching a military strike against Iran in the coming days without American support, according to Western officials.
The officials said fears of either no deal or a weak deal between Donald Trump, the president of the United States, and the Islamic Republic to curtail its nuclear programme had forced Israeli strategists to consider a unilateral attack against Tehran.
It comes as the UN nuclear watchdog's board of governors found that Iran had broken its non-proliferation agreement for the first time in 20 years.
The governors demanded Iran provide answers 'without delay' in a long-running investigation into uranium traces found at several locations that Tehran has failed to declare as nuclear sites.
Iran is believed to have enriched uranium to at least 60 per cent, putting it within 'sprint' distance of a potential nuclear device.
In response to the ruling, the Islamic Republic said it had no choice but to respond by establishing a new enrichment facility in a 'secure location' and 'significantly' increasing its production of enriched uranium.
Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, said: 'We are replacing all of these first-generation machines with sixth-generation advanced machines' at the Fordow uranium enrichment plant south of Tehran.
He added this means 'our production of enriched material will increase significantly'.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran will not abandon its right to uranium enrichment because of mounting frictions in the region, adding that a 'friendly' country had alerted Tehran over a potential military strike by Israel.
The official said the tensions were aimed at influencing Tehran to 'change its position about its nuclear rights' during talks with the US on Sunday in Oman.
US-Iran negotiations to curb Tehran's programme have been continuing for several weeks now.
There had been indications in recent days that the two sides might be close to closing on a framework that includes provisions about uranium enrichment that Israel views as unacceptable.
However, Mr Trump told a New York Post podcast on Wednesday he was 'less confident' about the prospects of a deal, having accused Tehran of adopting a hardline position.
Israel, which is not a party to the discussions, has demanded a complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear programme.
The US is now 'on alert' for the possibility of an Israeli strike, Western officials told US media outlets, with officials preparing to send home non-essential staff and families in its embassies in the Middle East, ahead of a potential Iranian retaliation.
The embassy in Baghdad is currently planning an 'ordered evacuation', according to sources.
The White House has also ordered its other missions within range of Iranian missiles to provide risk assessments.
The United Kingdom Maritime and Trade Organisation has issued a warning urging vessels using the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz to exercise heightened caution.
Military and intelligence chiefs have been concerned for several months that Mr Trump might strike a 'soft' deal with Iran that does not guarantee the Jewish state's long-term security – in order to establish his legacy as a peacemaker.
The broad consensus in Israel has been that a unilateral strike on Iran would be unthinkable.
Despite a slight cooling of relations with Mr Trump in recent weeks, it is thought unlikely Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, would be willing to embarrass his greatest ally in the middle of negotiations.
Additionally, while Israel reportedly has the military capability to set Tehran back, it is thought that only with US support could they be sure of profoundly damaging the programme.
The US alone has the capability to sustain an air campaign over several days; it has crucial refuelling aircraft, plus strategic bombers that can drop clusters of specialist munitions that have the best chance of punching through the thick rock that protects some of Iran's nuclear development sites.
Iran also has large stockpiles of non-nuclear ballistic missiles which it would likely launch at Israel in retaliation.
While Israel has a sophisticated missile defence system, this can be overwhelmed by a large barrage, and it would require active US support in protecting its cities.
Despite the desirability of US support, Israeli military chiefs are understood to be frustrated that their ideal window for an attack is closing, while Mr Trump's talks force them to sit on their hands.
Israel destroyed a key Iranian S-300 aerial defence system last year, while Hezbollah in Lebanon is all but defeated, reducing the chance of a meaningful retaliation against Israel's northern border communities.
However, it is thought that neither advantage will last indefinitely.
In April, The New York Times revealed that Mr Trump had, some weeks earlier, warned Mr Netanyahu off a unilateral strike as early as this spring.
In his first term, he pulled the US out of a multinational agreement that relaxed economic sanctions on Iran in return for curbs on its enrichment process, brokered by Barack Obama.
The aim of that deal was to keep Iran at least 12 months away from being able to build a nuclear warhead.
Since Mr Trump upended the deal, Tehran has enriched uranium to about 60 per cent.
Although it claims that this is for civilian purposes, numerous experts and watchdogs say there is no justifiable military purpose for such highly enriched uranium.
US officials are reportedly concerned that, if pushed, Iran could engineer a 'crude' nuclear bomb in a matter of weeks.
However, it would likely have to be delivered on a truck or a ship, as miniaturising it on to a ballistic missile would take longer and be more likely to be detected by the US and Israel.