AEW Double or Nothing 2025 predictions roundtable: Do Will Ospreay and Mercedes Moné win the Owen Hart Tournament?

Yahoo

23-05-2025

Will Ospreay is in the finals of the Owen Hart Tournament and could earn an AEW World Championship match if he wins at Double or Nothing 2025.
Double or Nothing 2025, one of AEW's signature annual pay-per-views, takes place Sunday at the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona. The eight-match card features three championship contests and the annual Anarchy in the Arena match that has become a fixture on the spring AEW tentpole.
With AEW World Champion Jon Moxley and his Death Riders involved in the aforementioned Anarchy in the Arena match, the promotion's top title will not be on the line this weekend. That said, there will be significant building blocks for the rest of AEW's 2025 campaign as the men's and women's Owen Hart Tournament finals will be held, with the winners not only winning the brackets but also earning opportunities to compete for their division's respective top championships.
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Ahead of the event, Uncrowned's wrestling crew of Kel Dansby, Robert Jackman, Drake Riggs and Anthony Sulla-Heffinger dive into the card to answer burning questions and offer their predictions.
1. Who should win the Owen Hart Tournament final on the women's side?
Sulla-Heffinger: This is one of the most interesting matchups on the entire card for me, because I see legitimate cases for both women walking out of Arizona victorious. You could argue there hasn't been a better talent — men's or women's — in AEW since Moné's debut with the promotion last year. Her work has confirmed that she's in the discussion as one of the greatest women's wrestlers of all time. Winning the Owen Hart Tournament and earning a shot at AEW's top women's title makes absolute sense.
On the other hand, there have been cracks showing in Moné's dominant foundation, having dropped one of her titles over the past few weeks. A loss here continues that trend and adds a new wrinkle to her character. Plus, in an already impressive women's division, having Jamie Hayter pick up the win here helps build up another main-event star.
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Ultimately, I think after an absolute banger of a match, Moné captures the crown and earns her AEW Women's Championship title shot.
Riggs: I couldn't agree more with Anthony on this one. Hayter is freaking awesome, and her reign as champion feels like it was a decade ago — not just because of the time between now and then, but also because of her transformation. Putting Hayter over would be the proper "AEW move," if you get what I mean. The type of booking decision on which the company was built. However, Moné is the "bigger," flashier booking toward a super-match, if you will. And that's not at all to say it wouldn't also be appropriate, because Moné is undeniably one of the best in the world.
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To give a definitive answer, AEW can't go wrong with either choice, but more signs point to Moné being the overall most logical and best winner.
Jackman: This is a tricky one. If we're going on pure chemistry, I feel that Hayter is better placed to have an explosive feud with Toni Storm. It's been a while since we've seen those two go at it and they've both come on leaps and bounds in that time. That makes me think Hayter deserves to strut her stuff with the champion.
On the other hand, if we're going on what's best for business, I'd pick Moné on the grounds that it allows you to make the necessary move of consolidating the two women's titles. The blunt reality is that there just isn't the depth of talent there to have two singles titles — and the TBS Championship has never really established its own identity.
If I were in Tony Khan's shoes, I'd put Moné over and then turn the resulting title showdown into a unification match. I guess that really would be 'double or nothing' given that the winner would be leaving with all the gold or none of it…
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Dansby: Mercedes Moné vs. Toni Storm is the money feud, no doubt. AEW's done a great job keeping them apart until now, and that tension finally snaps at Double or Nothing.
Moné should go over Jamie Hayter here. It's the right call, especially if AEW wants to launch a top-tier program that could headline a pay-per-view later this year. Mercedes and Toni have chemistry, star power and history. A win kicks off what could be AEW's biggest women's storyline to date.
Will Ospreay takes on Jon Moxley in New Japan Pro-Wrestling in January 2024. ()
(Etsuo Hara via Getty Images)
2. All signs point to an eventual coronation of Will Ospreay as AEW's top guy. A tournament win lines him up to face Jon Moxley this summer. Is there ANY reason to delay what feels inevitable?
Riggs: No. No, no and no again. Primarily, because the Moxley reign of terror simply has to end. It's run beyond its expiration date to the point where I don't even think it will feel big and special anymore once he does lose. That's how over it people have gotten, and rightfully so. It sucks to say that because Moxley is genuinely great — just not as this Death Riders character.
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Some kind of magic will be made in the near future with Hangman Adam Page, and the versatility of that would be the only reason to delay Ospreay, specifically.
Jackman: Having just filed 800 words on this very question, I'll keep it short for fear of self-plagiarism. My view is that it is absolutely imperative we see a passing of the torch in AEW this summer, and Will Ospreay is uniquely well-placed to make that happen. The man really is at the top of his game right now and it would be absolute folly not to recognize it by making him champion by the end of the year.
In truth, though, it goes even deeper than Ospreay and Moxley. I've written before that perhaps the biggest indictment of AEW is the lack of homemade stars among its world champions, almost all of whom are former WWE bigwigs. If AEW can't add its most talented wrestler to its roster of champions, they have a bigger problem than I thought.
Dansby: The only real reason to hold off on Ospreay winning is if Darby Allin returns to finish what he started with Moxley. Darby's climb up the actual Mount Everest put that story on pause, and Moxley's title reign feels like it's been extended to wait for him. If Darby is ready to go, you could argue for giving him the shot first.
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Otherwise, it's Ospreay's time. He's been on fire, the fans are behind him, and he's clearly being positioned as the guy to carry AEW into its next era. No need to wait.
Sulla-Heffinger: Is there a case? Sure, having Hangman win here and going after Moxley as one of AEW's OGs makes some degree of booking sense.
Should it happen? No.
Ospreay isn't just the future of AEW, he's the present as well. After a polarizing championship reign from Moxley, the top of AEW's card desperately needs a refresh and Ospreay should be the one who provides it. One of the signature moments in AEW history was Bryan Danielson's win over Swerve Strickland last summer at All In London. Ospreay taking down Moxley and the Death Riders in Texas this July would generate a pop similar to, if not bigger than that.
Kazuchika Okada defends his AEW Continental Championship against "Speedball" Mike Bailey. ()
(Etsuo Hara via Getty Images)
3. Which match are you the most excited about or feel is a dark horse contender to steal the show?
Jackman: I'm going to tip my hat to 'Speedball' Mike Bailey on this one, who has consistently been one of the most entertaining guys on the televised shows since his debut back in March.
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Admittedly this isn't his first PPV outing for AEW, but I think it's a safe bet that he will be keen to make an impression when he goes up against the legend Kazuchika Okada.
Sulla-Heffinger: I've mentioned Moné-Hayter as the most intriguing and I don't think you'll find anyone who doesn't think Ospreay-Hangman will be a stunner, so I'm going to eliminate those two.
I am wildly excited to see what chaos Mark Briscoe and Ricochet create with a stretcher match. I'm on record saying some of the over-the-top hardcore stuff isn't my favorite, but I think the creativity these two men will bring will overshadow any gratuitous violence that might come along with the match.
Dansby: It's not really a dark horse, but Anarchy in the Arena has the best shot at stealing the show.
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This match is always wild, and AEW has built it up perfectly this year. The chaos is part of the fun, and with Moxley guaranteed to bleed, plus the addition of the women into the mix, it's going to feel fresh. Big moments, wild spots, total unpredictability — this one has all the ingredients to be the most talked-about match of the night.
Riggs: Once again, I really like Anthony's choice here and vibe with it. I'll mix it up though, and shout Toni Storm vs. Mina Shirakawa, which should have some fun callbacks and silly spots.
You just know they're going to get creative with the finish on this one, and I'm quite curious to see what the ladies cook up.
Swerve Strickland takes center stage in this year's Anarchy In The Arena match. (Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
4. AEW has historically done a great job with Anarchy in the Arena and this year has arguably the biggest lineup of stars involved, yet it isn't the main event. Where do you slot it in on the show?
Dansby: Honestly, let it open the show. Kick things off with mayhem and get the crowd fired up right away. Moxley's entrance, Swerve's pop, the brawl spilling into every corner of the building — it's the kind of chaos that sets the tone early.
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Then, follow it with something more story-driven to cool the crowd down a bit. The tag title match with The Hurt Syndicate vs. Dustin Rhodes and Sons of Texas fits perfectly there. That match is more about MJF's story with the group than the belts, so it works as a transition before the next big fight.
Riggs: Opening with the match immediately springs to mind, but the more I think about it, that would feel weird, especially if the match has its usual backstage chaos.
So, the next best thing would be the second match!
Do I think that will happen? No. It's either opening or "co-main event." Because Death Riders.
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Jackman: I love the devious assumption buried in the question here. You're presupposing that I've booked this total mess and then you're asking me where I'd place it on the card. It's a bit like putting me in charge of an expensive restaurant and then asking where to add the jello shots on the set menu…
OK, I'm being a little unfair here. Obviously this one will be a lot of fun, even if — on paper — it looks like an attempt to cram in every big name who doesn't have an obvious place on the pay-per-view card. Given that, I'd probably plonk it right in the middle of the evening. That way you can pick up the energy levels if necessary and anyone who dislikes these big hardcore matches can go and grab a beer instead.
Sulla-Heffinger: With Ospreay-Hangman locked in as the main event of the show this boils down to one of two spots — penultimate match or show opener — with the Women's Owen Hart Tournament final taking the other slot.
Personally, I like having Moné-Hayter go on second to last because you get a chance for the winner of Storm-Shirakawa to confront their next challenger after the match. In addition, if you open the show with Anarchy in the Arena — and the Death Riders team wins — you get the potential to have them beat down the Ospreay-Hangman winner to close the show.
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Opening with Anarchy in the Arena is a way to get the fans in attendance and watching at home immediately invested and locked in, plus you don't run the risk of crowd fatigue for the main event if this goes on second to last.
On a side note, this show having just eight announced matches is a welcome change from previous AEW pay-per-views, which felt overloaded and overwhelming at times from a fan — and media — perspective.
Toni Storm defends her AEW Women's World Championship against Mina Shirakawa. ()
(Etsuo Hara via Getty Images)
5. There are just three championships on the line. Will any change hands in what feels like a relatively low-stakes show in terms of gold at stake?
Jackman: I think Tony Khan has made the (wise) decision to keep the focus on the two Owen Hart matches and what they will mean for the respective world title scenes further down the line. It's exactly what the WWE does with Money in the Bank and Elimination Chamber, for example, and there's a reason it works well for them. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if 'Speedball' picks up a win here.
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Sulla-Heffinger: Outside of the AEW World Championship, the company is in a really good spot with its current champions right now, so I don't necessarily think anything needs to be changed on this show.
But, for the sake of the question, much like I said with building up Hayter, "Speedball" Mike Bailey going over on Kazuchika Okada would be a major moment for one of the rising stars on AEW's mid-card.
Riggs: I can see a case for Mike Bailey taking the strap off Okada, just because of the impending continuation of the Kenny Omega vs. Okada feud. However, I doubt that happens because the two legends could instead go into their big collision both wearing gold, and ideally unifying the titles into one.
That's a whole lot of optimism there, and it's probably wrong — but in the end, I'm thinking every champ will successfully defend at Double Or Nothing.
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Dansby: Probably not. All three title matches should deliver in their own way, but none of them feel like they're setting up for a big switch. Okada vs. Speedball will be a technical showcase — smooth, fast-paced and super crisp. Toni Storm vs. Mina Shirakawa should be fun and dramatic, laying the groundwork for a big title defense down the line. And The Hurt Syndicate with MJF looks more focused on character development than a title shocker.
The stakes are more about stories than belts this time around, which is fine when the storytelling's this strong.
Predictions:
Men's Owen Hart Tournament Finals: Hangman Page vs. Will Ospreay (Dansby, Jackman, Riggs, Sulla-Heffinger)
Women's Owen Hart Tournament Finals: Jamie Hayter vs. Mercedes Moné (Dansby, Jackman, Riggs, Sulla-Heffinger)
Anarchy in the Arena Match: Kenny Omega, Swerve Strickland, Willow Nightingale, Samoa Joe, Powerhouse Hobbs & Katsuyori Shibata (Dansby, Riggs) vs. The Death Riders & The Young Bucks (Jackman, Sulla-Heffinger)
AEW Women's World Championship: Toni Storm (Dansby, Jackman, Riggs, Sulla-Heffinger) vs. Mina Shirakawa
AEW World Tag Team Championship: The Hurt Syndicate (Bobby Lashley & Shelton Benjamin) (Dansby, Jackman, Riggs, Sulla-Heffinger) vs. Sons Of Texas (Sammy Guevara & Dustin Rhodes)
AEW Continental Championship Match: Kazuchika Okada (Dansby, Riggs) vs. Mike Bailey (Jackman, Sulla-Heffinger)
Stretcher Match: Mark Briscoe vs. Ricochet (Dansby, Jackman, Riggs, Sulla-Heffinger)
FTR (Dansby, Jackman, Riggs) vs. Nigel McGuiness & Daniel Garcia (Sulla-Heffinger)
2025 standings