AI job losses are coming – and entry-level workers could be the first to go
After years of hype and hesitation, artificial intelligence is beginning to displace real jobs, writes Catherine McGregor in today's extract from The Bulletin.
The quiet start of a loud disruption
For many workers, the presence of artificial intelligence in the office has so far been subtle – a bit of text from ChatGPT here, an AI-generated image there. But a profound shift in the labour market is coming, many business and AI insiders say. Anthropic, maker of the Claude AI models, has found that while AI is being used mainly for the augmentation of tasks, a transition toward automation – actually doing the job – is well underway. 'Most [workers] are unaware that this is about to happen,' Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei told Axios. 'It sounds crazy, and people just don't believe it.'
His warning was echoed by Axios co-founders Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen, who said they had 'talked to scores of CEOs' about how they're thinking about AI. 'Every single one of them is working furiously to figure out when and how agents or other AI technology can displace human workers at scale,' they wrote. 'The second these technologies can operate at a human efficacy level, which could be six months to several years from now, companies will shift from humans to machines.'
Tech jobs may be the canary in the coal mine
If that sounds alarmist, the numbers suggest otherwise. A global survey of senior executives found that 10% of all job roles could be eliminated by AI within five years. That figure, described as 'modest' by Dr Paul Henderson in his recent Maxim Institute report, Gone for Good: AI and the Future of Work, would still cause 'a marked disruption in New Zealanders' lives'.
Some sectors are already showing signs of strain. Software development, in particular, has seen entry-level jobs disappear with the rise of coding assistants and no-code platforms. The IT news site CIO reports that teams are being restructured around AI tools, favouring experienced developers who can supervise machine-generated code over junior staff who once cut their teeth writing it. As Meta's Mark Zuckerberg put it earlier this year, mid-level engineers – and presumably the junior coders aspiring to join them – may become unnecessary 'in 2025'.
A grim forecast for new graduates
It seems that those searching for their first office jobs are most at risk. Amodei has predicted AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next five years and in the New York Times (paywalled), Kevin Roose reports that numerous firms are 'making rapid progress toward automating entry-level work', while others are becoming 'AI-first', evaluating whether a job even needs a human before posting the vacancy.
While this trend is most visible in the US, its implications are global – including for New Zealand, where many graduate roles mirror their overseas counterparts. The IMF has warned that up to 60% of jobs in advanced economies may be affected by AI. If so, the dream of a secure professional career may become a luxury afforded only to those already through the door.
Education in the age of artificial answers
For those still in education, the concern is not just if there'll be a job waiting – but whether they're truly learning anything at all. In The Spinoff this morning, Hera Lindsay Bird documents the creeping use of generative AI in New Zealand schools and universities. Some of the quotes from teachers and lecturers are eye-popping. 'My main beef with AI is that it made me into a grown adult asshole who had 18-year- old enemies,' one says. 'I wanted to be a teacher not a cop.'
Lindsay Bird writes: 'Almost every educator I spoke with, from primary school teachers to those supervising postgraduate dissertations, raised serious concerns,' she writes, 'with some teachers estimating that up to 80% of their students relied on ChatGPT to complete assignments.
'I spoke to MA supervisors whose history students theses were riddled with fictitious sources and 'archival' Midjourney photographs, and primary and intermediate school teachers, who said students as young as 11 were using it to answer simple personal prompts, such as 'what did you do in the summer holidays?' and 'what was your favourite penguin in the text?''
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