India-Pakistan: Nuclear Rivals on the Brink After Kashmir Strikes

Morocco World

07-05-2025

Doha – India launched military strikes against Pakistan early Wednesday, killing at least 26 civilians according to Pakistani officials, in retaliation for a deadly attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir last month. The operation, dubbed 'Operation Sindoor,' marks the most serious escalation between the nuclear-armed rivals in years, raising fears of a wider conflict.
India said it targeted nine sites with 'terrorist infrastructure' in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir during the 25-minute operation. Pakistani military spokesperson Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said six locations were hit with 24 strikes, including four in Punjab province and two in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
The attack took place around 1 a.m. Wednesday (8 p.m. GMT, Tuesday), with the biggest strike occurring in Ahmedpur Sharqia, near Bahawalpur city in Punjab, where a mosque compound was hit and five people were killed, including a three-year-old girl, according to Pakistani officials.
Other attacks targeted Muridke city, a village near Sialkot, and Shakar Garh in Punjab, as well as Muzaffarabad and Kotli in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, where two mosques were reportedly destroyed. Pakistani authorities reported at least eight deaths, including a 16-year-old girl and an 18-year-old boy, with 35 people injured.
Shortly after the strikes, Pakistan claimed it had shot down five Indian Air Force jets, including three Rafale fighter planes, though India has not confirmed the loss of any aircraft. Photos published by AFP showed aircraft wreckage in a field in Wuyan, a village in Indian-administered Kashmir, though it was not immediately clear who the aircraft belonged to.
What triggered the current crisis?
The escalation comes 15 days after a deadly attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, on April 22. Gunmen killed 26 people – 25 Indian tourists and a local pony rider – in what became the deadliest attack on civilians in the region in two decades.
Indian sources suggest the attack was carried out by a group called the Resistance Front, which they claim is an extension of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a militant group that has been based in Pakistan for many years. For decades, New Delhi has accused Islamabad of backing, training, and equipping various militant groups operating in Kashmir. In turn, Pakistan has consistently rejected these accusations as baseless allegations.
Pakistani officials swiftly condemned the Pahalgam attack but denied any connection to it, calling for an independent and impartial investigation into the incident.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi responded to the attack with a strongly worded statement, vowing that India would track down those responsible 'to the ends of the earth.' Despite this tough stance, Indian security forces were still conducting operations in Kashmir's mountainous terrain searching for the perpetrators when the decision was made to strike targets inside Pakistan.
On Wednesday, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri claimed that intelligence agencies had uncovered evidence connecting Pakistani-based militants to the Pahalgam attack. He specifically pointed to social media activity from the Resistance Front and affiliated groups as part of this evidence trail.
The deepening diplomatic crisis
The aftermath of the Pahalgam attack has seen diplomatic relations between the neighbors deteriorate rapidly. India took the serious step of suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, under which it shares waters from six rivers with Pakistan. As the upstream country controlling the headwaters, India's move potentially threatens Pakistan's water security.
Diplomatic measures have escalated on both sides, with India canceling visas for Pakistani citizens and Pakistan threatening to withdraw from the Simla Agreement. Both governments have expelled diplomatic personnel, sealed border crossings, and restricted airspace access.
The military strikes have further disrupted regional air travel, with Pakistan closing substantial portions of its airspace as a security measure. International carriers have rerouted flights to avoid the region entirely, while domestic Indian airlines have faced disruptions and airport closures throughout northern India.
In Indian-administered Kashmir, security forces have implemented harsh measures following the April attack. Over 2,000 local residents have been detained, with many held under counterterrorism legislation. Authorities have demolished homes belonging to suspected militant supporters and intensified security operations throughout the territory.
Both militaries have exchanged artillery fire across the Line of Control dividing Kashmir, with Indian officials ordering civilian evacuations from border villages considered vulnerable to Pakistani retaliation.
Kashmir: The heart of decades-long conflict
The spectacular beauty of Kashmir's lakes and snow-capped mountains belies its status as one of the world's most contested territories. The roots of the conflict date back to the 1947 partition that created independent India and Pakistan from British colonial rule.
When the British withdrew, they divided the subcontinent largely along religious lines – Hindu-majority regions becoming India and Muslim-majority areas forming Pakistan. However, the princely state of Kashmir remained in limbo, its future undetermined despite having a predominantly Muslim population.
Kashmir's Hindu ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh, initially sought independence for his territory. His position became untenable when armed tribesmen from Pakistan's frontier regions entered Kashmir. Facing this threat, he signed an instrument of accession to India in exchange for military protection.
This decision triggered the first Indo-Pakistani war. The United Nations eventually brokered a ceasefire and proposed resolving the dispute through a public referendum. However, the plebiscite never materialized as both countries failed to agree on demilitarization terms necessary for the vote.
The 1949 ceasefire established a temporary boundary splitting Kashmir, with approximately two-thirds under Indian administration and one-third under Pakistani control. This provisional arrangement has effectively become permanent, though both countries maintain claims to the entire region.
Tensions flared again in 1965 when Pakistani forces crossed the ceasefire line, prompting full-scale hostilities. Following another regional conflict in 1971, which resulted in East Pakistan becoming Bangladesh, the two countries formalized the Kashmir division by designating the ceasefire line as the 'Line of Control' in the 1972 Simla Agreement.
By the late 1990s, both India and Pakistan had developed nuclear capabilities, adding a dangerous dimension to any potential conflict. Today, Delhi and Islamabad both claim Kashmir in full, but control only parts of it. It is considered one of the world's most militarized regions, with India stationing hundreds of thousands of troops to assert control over its territory.
The demographic composition fuels the dispute – Jammu and Kashmir is predominantly Muslim, making it India's only Muslim-majority state. Since 1989, armed opposition to Indian rule has claimed tens of thousands of lives. In 2019, India's central government revoked Kashmir's semi-autonomous status and imposed unprecedented security measures, including what became the longest internet shutdown ever recorded in a democratic country.
For several years afterward, militant activity waned and tourism flourished – a narrative that the recent Pahalgam attack has brutally disrupted. Sentiment remains divided among Kashmir's residents, with many favoring either independence or union with Pakistan rather than continuing under Indian governance.
Recent escalations and Operation Sindoor
The current crisis follows a pattern of periodic flare-ups. In 2016, after militants killed 19 Indian soldiers at an army base in Uri, India conducted what it termed 'surgical strikes' across the Line of Control. A more serious escalation occurred in 2019 following the Pulwama bombing that claimed over 40 Indian paramilitary lives. India responded with airstrikes on Balakot deep inside Pakistani territory – the first such cross-border air operation since 1971.
After several years of relative stability, the April 2025 Pahalgam attack has shattered the fragile peace. The 26 victims represent the highest civilian death toll in Kashmir in over twenty years.
India's retaliatory operation carries significant symbolic weight through its codename. 'Sindoor' refers to the vermilion powder traditionally worn by married Hindu women as a symbol of their marital status.
This appears to reference reports that the Pahalgam attackers specifically targeted Hindu men, separating them from women before executing them. According to survivor accounts, the gunmen deliberately identified non-Muslims before opening fire, leaving many Hindu women newly widowed – women who would traditionally stop wearing sindoor upon losing their husbands.
India has characterized its strikes as 'measured, responsible and designed to be non-escalatory in nature,' emphasizing that its objective was solely targeting terrorist infrastructure. Pakistan's leadership has rejected this framing entirely, calling the attacks 'an unprovoked and blatant act of war' that 'violated Pakistan's sovereignty.' Pakistan has promised to respond at a time and manner of its choosing.
What happens next?
The optimal scenario would involve limited further military engagement followed by rapid de-escalation, similar to previous confrontations. However, there are fewer international mediators actively working to defuse tensions in this latest cycle of hostilities.
US President Donald Trump, whose administration is already engaged in multiple international conflicts including Ukraine, Gaza, and Yemen, has shown minimal diplomatic initiative. When questioned about the Indian strikes, Trump's response was notably tepid, merely expressing regret about the situation and a vague hope for quick resolution.
This stands in stark contrast to the forceful American diplomatic intervention that helped contain previous India-Pakistan crises. Without strong external pressure, the two nuclear-armed neighbors will likely need to navigate this dangerous period largely on their own terms.
Historical precedent offers sobering perspective – the countries' previous wars have exacted heavy tolls, with the 1999 Kargil conflict alone causing over a thousand Pakistani military casualties by conservative estimates. The decades-long Kashmir insurgency has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths.
Pakistan's powerful military establishment has long justified its outsized influence in domestic politics by positioning itself as the country's bulwark against Indian aggression. This institutional dynamic creates strong incentives for a demonstrable response to India's strikes.
Both countries have substantially enhanced their military capabilities since 1999, including building nuclear arsenals estimated by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) at approximately 170 warheads each – a factor that dramatically raises the stakes of any potential escalation.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has expressed 'deep concern' about the situation, warning that 'the world cannot afford a military confrontation' between these nuclear powers. Multiple countries including the United States, UAE, China, and Japan have called for restraint from both sides.
The political reality is that whichever government appears to back down first will likely face substantial domestic criticism, creating a dangerous dynamic where neither side feels it can afford to de-escalate without a face-saving outcome. Tags: IndiaKashmirPakistan