Fewer property flippers in condo sub-sale market, but deals in Q1 still ‘highly profitable'
[SINGAPORE] Sub-sale volumes in Singapore's private housing market – where buyers can 'flip' a new unit before the project is completed – are on the decline, with speculative buying dampened by cooling measures and wider economic uncertainty now exacerbated by tariff-induced volatility.
Even so, the majority of such transactions remained highly profitable. Sellers earned a median gross gain of S$257,000, data from local property portal Mogul.sg showed.
According to statistics from URA Realis, there were 292 sub-sale transactions in the first quarter of 2025 – down 26 per cent from a recent peak of 393 units in Q4 2023. The past year also saw a gradual decline in sub-sale volumes since Q4 2023.
Quarterly numbers are, nevertheless, well above levels seen during the pandemic years of 2019 to 2021, when the new launch pipeline dried up and sub-sales averaged just 82 units per quarter.
A sub-sale is recorded when a buyer resells a property bought directly from the developer, before the project is completed. It is typically seen as a proxy for speculative buying behaviour, and is a barometer of market confidence.
On an annual basis, sub-sales rose by 4 per cent year on year to 1,315 transactions in 2024. In comparison, 2023 saw a 77 per cent jump, from 713 to 1,265 units. The surge followed pandemic-related construction delays, which prolonged project completions and drove buyers to the sub-sale market.
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However, this was still a far cry from the 5,283 transactions recorded in 2007, before cooling measures such as the Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty, Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) and loan curbs, were introduced. These measures were rolled out between 2009 and 2013 to curb market speculation, following the global financial crisis of 2008.
The number of sub-sales as a proportion of all non-landed private home sales (excluding executive condos) has also waned over time. In Q1 2025, just 4.3 per cent of all deals were sub-sales – less than half of the 13-year high in Q4 2023, at 9.8 per cent. Sub-sale levels hit an all-time high of 35.3 per cent of all sales in Q2 1995, well before the introduction of SSD.
Driven by hot projects
Mogul.sg chief research officer Nicholas Mak attributed the recent easing of sub-sales to fresh cooling measures in 2023, which saw steep hikes in stamp duty rates curbing demand, and the elevated interest rate environment then.
Activity in the sub-sale market is often driven by demand for hot-selling projects in popular locations. Mogul's analysis shows that between 2020 and 2025, two projects in particular – Gem Residences in Toa Payoh and Riverfront Residences in Hougang – had high sub-sale activity. The 578-unit Gem Residences had 149 sub-sale deals, 25.8 per of units in the project, while Riverfront Residences saw 379 sub-sale deals – also 25.8 per cent of its 1,472 units.
While new home sales slumped after cooling measures kicked in 2023, primary sales picked up in the later part of 2024 with the launch of several high-profile condominiums. During the last quarter of 2024, Chuan Park sold over 60 per cent of its units at an average of S$2,579 per square foot (psf) when it launched in November, while Emerald of Katong moved nearly 99 per cent of its units at S$2,621 psf that same month.
New projects marketed in Q1 this year were pitched at benchmark prices – notably The Orie in Toa Payoh at S$2,704 psf and Parktown Residences in Tampines at S$2,360 psf. Both projects saw strong sales and are now about 90 per cent sold. But with new project pricing at current levels, the potential for price appreciation has flattened, Mak noted.
Seller's stamp duties also erode gains – those selling new units within a year of purchase are subject to the highest SSD rate of 12 per cent. The rate tapers to 8 per cent for units held for one to two years, and 4 per cent for those held for two to three years.
New condo buyers now have less of a 'profit motivation' to sell their unit as a sub-sale, said Mak. 'Instead, they may decide to wait and hold to see if prices rise any further. Some of them have only one bullet, so they want to sell (the unit) at the most optimal price.'
Making a pretty penny
Still, the vast majority of sub-sale transactions in the past year were profitable, Mak noted. Just around 0.5 per cent of deals were unprofitable, and even fewer at 0.2 per cent simply broke even.
Sellers also saw larger gross gains by both quantum and percentage. Mogul's analysis does not include taxes, fees, stamp duties (such as the SSD), agent's commission and mortgage interest payments. From Q1 2024 to Q1 2025, the median profit for a sub-sale was S$257,000 with a median holding period of just under four years. This was nearly 30 per cent higher than that of deals done between Q3 2020 to Q4 2023, with sellers raking in a median of S$200,000 in profit with about the same holding period. The median gross profit for a sub-sale was also 20.2 per cent over the last year, with annualised profits of 4.6 per cent. This was slightly higher than the 18.6 per cent median gross profit and 4.3 per cent annualised profit of the earlier period.
The higher gains in the face of dwindling sub-sale deals were mainly due to the higher value of transactions, said Mak. Though there were more transactions in the earlier 2020 to 2023 period, the median price of a sub-sale then was S$1.33 million, versus S$1.54 million in 2024.
Data from Mogul.sg also showed that there were nine 'double sub-sales' – that is, a sub-sale that is subsequently sold as another sub-sale – since Q3 2020. Of the nine deals, all but one made a profit, Mak noted.
He pointed out that the tally of 'double flips' used to be significantly higher – with more than 600 of such transactions every year – before SSD was introduced in February 2010.
Despite the restrictions in place, sub-sales can be fairly profitable if the property is held for more than three years so that it is not subject to SSD. Investors can 'enjoy tax-free capital gain' that way, said Mak. The median profit made from a sub-sale transaction from Q3 2020 to Q1 2025 was S$220,000, or 19.2 per cent of the property's acquisition price.
But with sentiment fragile amid tariff anxiety and hiring freezes across various industries, Mak reckoned that sub-sale volumes will gradually dwindle for the rest of the year.
Sub-sale activity in the short term could still be supported by a relatively tight inventory of unsold new private homes, he said. Unsold stock of uncompleted private homes stood at just 7,144 units in Q1. This could be cleared in just over a year, based on developers' sales of 6,469 units in 2024.
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