Jesse Marsch and Canada eye historic opportunity a year out from World Cup

New York Times

a day ago

One year from Thursday, Canada will step onto BMO Field in Toronto and try to do what no Canada team has done in the men's World Cup: win a game – and then possibly elevate the team and the sport into mainstream consciousness.
It's the next step in a rapid rise, but one that has eluded Canada in its two men's World Cup appearances.
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With the most talented team in Canadian history, and World Cup games at home, the opportunity won't get better than this. A year out from what could be a transformational event in Canadian sport, whispers have emerged about this team being Canada's golden generation. What's missing is the kind of wins that those types of teams around the world deliver.
Behind the scenes, achieving Canada's first men's World Cup win and reaching the knockout round is the bar that the coaching staff and organization have set for the team. Of the 80 countries to have appeared at the World Cup, Canada is one of just two nations to have appeared at multiple World Cups without logging a single point.
That's part of what's driving the desperation for this group: It understands it has to change the course of this team, and the sport, for the better.
'I think we're not at the point we want to be,' Stephen Eustáquio said when asked about the state of the team with one year before the World Cup. 'If the World Cup was this summer, I wouldn't know what to say. But with the path we are taking and the work rate we have and the way that we play, I think this year is going to be very important for us, so we can be sharp enough to prepare ourselves for the World Cup.'
How they answer questions about their team over the next year will determine how prepared Canada will be to take the next dramatic step.
Let's be honest about what Canada's core – Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Alistair Johnston and Eustáquio – has accomplished in meaningful, competitive games against difficult competition: 2022 World Cup qualifying wins over Mexico and then the U.S. at home remain the most impressive results. The other wins they've earned? They came against teams that won't offer the quality they'll see in the World Cup.
How about what Canada has accomplished since Jesse Marsch took over in May 2024? You could make an argument that their style of play beforehand is now irrelevant.
The 0-0 draw away to France in June 2024 could be viewed as a significant achievement, depending on where you fall on the 'friendlies are never friendly' debate. Getting that kind of result in the World Cup would signify a massive step forward.
Beating down Ukraine 4-2 this past weekend in a friendly was also the most clinical win from the Canadian side. Even though Canada's Copa América triumphs against Venezuela and Peru showcased important steps forward in tactical cohesion and confidence, both teams also appear unlikely to qualify for the World Cup.
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The lack of results against some of the world's better teams should not go overlooked – especially since the players themselves are not overlooking it.
'We're going in the right direction and building off the last tournament in Copa América, but I think we still have a lot to give,' forward Cyle Larin said. 'Obviously, we want to win games and trophies, but we have to win by doing the right things and compete at the highest level. We've turned things around quickly, but the more games we play and win, the more things will click.'
What Canada has lacked is savviness and game management against stronger opponents. The talent has been evident, but the ability to lock down games and buoy their cases with referees mid-game has been lacking.
For Canada to get results in the World Cup, the next year must include the development and amplification of street smarts to complement the qualities already evident.
Right now, it's fair to debate whether Canada is ready to face the best opponents around the world in must-win, competitive games. Based on recent results and quality in the squad, Canada could make a case for being Concacaf's best team at the moment. But the best team in the region usually delivers the right punches when it needs to in the World Cup. The U.S. outlasted Iran for a knockout spot in 2022 with an impressive win in a tense environment. Mexico flipped the 2018 World Cup on its head by shocking then-reigning champion Germany in their opening match, propelling El Tri to the knockout round.
Does Canada have the quality and savviness to pull off those kinds of wins? The focus over the next year should be on preparing players for those kinds of scenarios. Expect Canada to book friendlies against top European and South American opponents at the end of 2025 and leading into the 2026 World Cup. Canada must not just welcome the experience of playing strong opponents, but also turn those experiences into results that will bolster their confidence.
Behind the scenes, Canada's coaching staff has preached the need to believe they can beat anyone. That's proven to be a difficult psychological hurdle to overcome – especially with painful memories of the three losses in Qatar still lingering.
Whether it's converting one chance or preventing one the other way, World Cup games are often decided by the slimmest of margins.
One year before those games, Canada's best players have to put themselves into a place where they can break World Cup games wide open. If Canada's friendly draw (and loss on penalties) to Ivory Coast with a heavily-rotated squad proved anything, it's that Marsch's depth is a work in progress. But Canada's top-end talent is arguably as strong as any other Concacaf team.
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That talent must arrive at the World Cup at its collective peak for Canada to make a dent.
It's been easy to assume that Jonathan David will be an elite performer at the World Cup because he's been so automatic as of late. He has averaged a goal in over half the games he's played for Canada. David appears to be getting better as an attacker, too. There's a case to be made that his clinical finishing makes him Canada's most important player, especially if World Cup games get tight. Remember, Canada only advanced out of the Copa América group stage because David scored the lone goal in the first three matches, in a tight 1-0 win over Peru.
David has likely scored as much as he has for Canada because he's also been firing with regularity with his club side, Ligue 1's Lille. But this summer, he'll move up the ladder to a club in a stronger league.
But what happens if the playing time and goals don't continue? Canada is blessed to have a finisher of his quality. He's the type of player only the better World Cup teams will have. He's also, as it stands, Canada's only proven finisher. Very few moves this summer could alter Canada's chances like David's transfer.
'I think the most important thing for (David) is, it's not good if he goes somewhere and then he has to play on the bench a lot and not get minutes to keep himself sharp and fit and ready to go, especially with the World Cup being a year away,' Marsch said of David's upcoming transfer.
At the other end, Moïse Bombito also has a case to be Canada's most important player at the World Cup. It was a lack of foot speed from central defenders that led to Belgium's lone goal in the teams' 2022 World Cup opener. Preventing that goal could have resulted in a draw – and changed Canada's tournament. It's that fine margin again.
Canada's coaching staff believes Bombito's speed, physical profile and technical qualities give him the potential to be elite at the position. While a move from Ligue 1's Nice is highly unlikely before the World Cup, keeping the 25-year-old sharp and injury-free – he's currently out with a wrist injury – is crucial.
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Then there's Davies. Will he recover from his devastating ACL tear through this upcoming season at Bayern Munich? The all-world left back's confidence and pacy play will also be paramount to Canada's chances.
Eustáquio's playing time with a very good Porto side in Portugal has ebbed and flowed. When he's not playing for his club side, he's not as disciplined and effective for Canada. As the most central player on the field, his minutes have to stay high for Canada's transition play to be sharp.
Canada's last two friendlies and Gold Cup will effectively act as the final auditions for players Marsch is looking to round out his World Cup squad. That he got buy-in from many top players to feature in the Gold Cup could help squad harmony and tactical understanding.
'By the way, not one guy has said to me, 'I don't want to come to the Gold Cup,'' Marsch said, in what feels like a not-so-thinly-veiled shot at the U.S.'s squad, highlighted by the absence of Christian Pulisic.
Building out his team beyond the World Cup locks is a constant topic of discussion in team meetings, with Marsch consistently asking his group a version of this question: What are you doing on your own time to be part of the players we need in 2026?
One year out, let's break down where Canada's roster is likely at and who must earn Marsch's trust with their play for club and country:
Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Moïse Bombito, Stephen Eustáquio
Tajon Buchanan, Alistair Johnston, Derek Cornelius, Maxime Crepeau, Dayne St. Clair, Ali Ahmed
Outside of the goalkeepers, expect these players to start nearly every World Cup game. They've earned Marsch's trust and must execute on his physical demands – aggression and pressing – whenever possible in their club seasons.
Richie Laryea, Jonathan Osorio, Cyle Larin, Ismaël Koné, Mathieu Choinière, Jacob Shaffelburg
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There's a lot of veteran leadership here. Marsch might not get more than a handful of starts across the board at the World Cup from these players, but he will need them at their fittest to execute his pressing style.
Tom McGill, Joel Waterman, Luc De Fougerolles, Niko Sigur, Nathan Saliba, Tani Oluwaseyi
The most important question these players must answer over the next year: Can they be trusted?
That will involve making consistently sound decisions through their club season and then elevating their play and physicality in Canada training sessions. They might not play continuously through the World Cup, but Marsch will need to be convinced they can quickly adapt to whatever a game may present in a rare start or appearance off the bench.
Promise David, Daniel Jebbison, Gabriele Biancheri, Jamie Knight-Lebel, Kamal Miller, Sam Adekugbe, Jayden Nelson, Zorhan Bassong, Liam Millar, Jacen Russell-Rowe, Luca Koleosho
For some, including Adekugbe and Millar, health will determine their place in the squad. For others, they must show Marsch they can handle his physical and tactical demands. For Koleosho, it's about Marsch convincing the Burnley winger to join Canada instead of Italy, Nigeria or the U.S.
Jonathan Sirois, James Pantemis, Junior Hoilett, Samuel Piette, Santiago Lopez, Kwasi Poku, Shola Jimoh, Theo Bair, Stephen Afrifa
With a combination of veteran voices and young players without much international experience, it would take injuries elsewhere or seriously strong seasons from those in this group to put them on the squad.
(Top illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; Mark Blinch, Eliecer Aizprua Banfield / Jam Media, Shaun Clark / ISI Photos / USSF / Getty Images)