Putin will be terrified by how easily Iran's Russian air defences went down
The debris is beginning to settle after the dynamic US strike on Iran's nuclear weapons sites. Operation Midnight Hammer, an incredible demonstration of US military power – and Israeli operations before it – have made plain the fragility of Russian air defence systems. These events will be shaking the very foundations of the Russian military.
The simple fact is that Israeli jets have been operating at will in Iranian airspace for some time. Now a huge US strike package including seven B-2 bombers, 75 cruise missiles and no doubt numerous other jets have arrived without difficulty, delivered 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators with pinpoint accuracy. All of this has been completely unaffected by Iranian air defences based around Russian S-300 missiles, Russian fighter jets and a Russian concept of operations. This has to be causing panic in Moscow.
The war in Ukraine has been very different from that between Iran and Israel. Above Ukraine the air defenders – or 'cloud punchers' as they're known in the British forces – seemingly rule the skies. Neither side dares to send aircraft even near the enemy front lines, let alone across them: Russian jets manage to deliver effective strikes using standoff glide bombs and cruise missiles, and Ukraine has retaliated with drones and limited supplies of long-ranging Western missiles. The mission of Suppression of Enemy Air Defences, which has been carried out so effectively by Israel against Iran, has proved unachievable for both sides. But it is clear that it can be done, at least by well-equipped Western nations against Russian defences – and that will be striking fear into Putin's heart. Russia to be sure has moved on to the more capable S-400 (and in some cases the very newest S-500), but the S-400 was merely an upgrade to the S-300 and the S-500 is probably more hype than substance.
The Russian dictator and his advisers must now have realised that their defences could easily be suppressed if the Ukrainians – or another opponent such as Nato – had the right tools.
Of course we have come to understand that Putin and the Russian high command have virtually no regard for casualties. We have just seen over one million Russian military dead and wounded in Ukraine. But we can be sure that Putin and his generals will be concerned for their own personal safety. The comprehensive US and Israeli intelligence networks that we have seen in Iran – which even allow them to pinpoint and assassinate key leaders and nuclear scientists almost at will – will have terrified the Kremlin hierarchy, the more so as Ukraine appears to have similar reach inside Russia. Operation Spider's Web, in which Russia's strategic air fleet was decimated several times over, stands testament to their effectiveness.
It is now even clearer that America has total overmatch against Russia's forces, and if Trump chose to he could inflict total battlefield defeat on Putin – or eliminate him personally – by equipping Ukraine with the same weapons that Israel has.
Hopefully, now Trump is buoyed by his success in Iran, this demonstration of superior military power to the Kremlin – backed by some suitably robust messaging – will convince Putin to come to the negotiation table. If Trump achieves this, he may well get the Nobel peace prize he so covets, and he would deserve it.
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Reuters
19 minutes ago
- Reuters
VIEW Investors react after Trump announced ceasefire between Iran and Israel
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The Independent
19 minutes ago
- The Independent
UK lifts warning for Qatar as Trump says Iran and Israel have agreed ceasefire
The UK has lifted advice for its citizens to shelter in place in Qatar after Iran launched a retaliatory attack on a US military base there. Iran launched a missile attack on the base after America's strikes on its nuclear facilities on Saturday. However, US President Donald Trump appeared to react positively, calling the move 'a very weak response' and thanking Tehran 'for giving us early notice' to avoid any casualties. He then claimed Israel and Iran had agreed a 'complete and total ceasefire' to be phased in over 24 hours. Foreign Secretary David Lammy had urged Iran to 'take the off ramp' and return to the negotiating table with the US after American B-2 stealth bombers and a salvo of submarine-launched missiles hit Iran's nuclear facilities on Saturday night. But after a US security alert, the Foreign Office advised British nationals to 'shelter in place' and Qatar shut its airspace as a precaution. The attacks came shortly after. Armed forces minister Luke Pollard said the UK was monitoring the 'fast-changing situation' closely and that 'the UK Government utterly condemns any escalation'. 'Force protection now is at its highest state across all deployed units in the Middle East,' he told the Commons. 'The additional RAF Typhoon jets announced by the Prime Minister have now arrived in the region to reinforce our posture, deter threats and reassure our partners, and I want to be clear, we will not rule out sending further capabilities if they are required,' Mr Pollard said. Meanwhile, the UK started evacuating Britons from Israel, with the first group of 63 flown back via Cyprus and due to return to the UK on Monday. Downing Street said 'around 1,000' people had requested a seat on an evacuation flight – a quarter of the 4,000 who had registered their presence in Israel or Palestine with the Foreign Office. The Government has withdrawn staff from its embassy in Iran and it is operating 'remotely', Mr Lammy told MPs. The Foreign Secretary previously spoke of a two-week window for a diplomatic solution after Mr Trump's apparent decision last week to delay US military action. On Monday, he said the window had 'narrowed' but told MPs the need for a diplomatic solution remained. Mr Lammy said: 'My message for Tehran was clear, take the off ramp, dial this thing down, and negotiate with the United States seriously and immediately. 'The alternative is an even more destructive and far-reaching conflict, which could have unpredictable consequences.' Downing Street had said that preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear bomb was a 'good thing' for the UK, but declined to comment on whether the US strikes complied with international law. Meanwhile, oil prices reached their highest level for nearly six months over fears a regional conflict could restrict supply, especially if Iran decided to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Mr Lammy told MPs the Government was 'closely monitoring' the energy markets and urged Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, saying a blockade would be 'a monumental act of economic self-harm' and make reaching a diplomatic solution even harder.
The Independent
24 minutes ago
- The Independent
Trump's strikes on Iran have failed to destroy its path to a bomb and may drag the U.S. into a quagmire, experts warn
Donald Trump was looking for a simple, if explosive, solution to stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions when he ordered strikes on nuclear facilities across the country. But as the smoke cleared over the three underground facilities hit by stealth bombers and cruise missiles over the weekend, experts say the result may actually bring an Iranian nuclear bomb closer to reality and raise the risk of greater U.S. involvement in the conflict. 'Technically, it's probably slightly further away, but politically it's much more imminent,' said Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute and a former member of the International Security Advisory Board (ISAB), which advises the Secretary of State. 'Iran has been a few months away from a nuclear weapon since about 2007. It's clear that the thing that keeps them a few months away is not their technical capacity; it's their political will. And I think whatever loss in technical capacity they have suffered, it is more than compensated for by an increase in political will,' Lewis told The Independent. Trump described the U.S. strikes against Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan as a 'spectacular military success' in brief remarks from the White House on Saturday night, adding that the sites had been 'completely and totally obliterated.' But Lewis said the showpiece of Trump's attack — the attack on the Fordow nuclear facility, built deep underground, which required the use of 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs — was limited in its effectiveness because Iran had time to evacuate and remove equipment before the strikes. 'I understand that Fordow has a symbolic importance to people, but it is by no means the only underground facility associated with Iran's nuclear program. And given how long it took the U.S. to strike, it's not clear to me that by the time it was hit, it was even the most important, because the Iranians had had time to power off centrifuges and possibly remove them,' he added. One of the primary motivations for launching the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities was to destroy Iran's ability to enrich uranium. But the country has amassed a stockpile over the years of an estimated 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium — enough to make around 10 nuclear weapons if it were further enriched from 60 percent where it is now, to the 90 percent required to construct a device. Following the strikes, Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said on Monday that his agency was seeking access to 'account for' Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Vice President JD Vance conceded on Sunday that the stockpile is still in Iranian hands and its whereabouts are unknown. "We are going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel and that's one of the things that we're going to have conversations with the Iranians about," he said. But Vance's desire to open negotiations with the Iranians about that missing uranium will be much more difficult since the attacks, according to Kelsey Davenport, the Director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, where she focuses on the nuclear and missile programs in Iran. She told The Independent that this weekend's attack will make Iran 'much more likely politically to pursue nuclear weapons, and the factions arguing that nuclear weapons are necessary for deterrence are only strengthened now.' 'The U.S. decision to strike Iran before diplomacy was exhausted in the midst of a negotiation process has destroyed U.S. credibility, and is going to raise serious questions about whether the U.S. could be trusted to negotiate again in good faith,' she said. It's not the first time Iran has been burned by Trump for seeking a negotiated settlement over its nuclear program, either. In 2018, Trump in his first term pulled out of a nuclear deal negotiated by his predecessor, Barack Obama, that had successfully and dramatically reduced Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium. In response to Trump's withdrawal and the reintroduction of sanctions, Tehran started to increase uranium enrichment and build up its stockpile once more, and removed monitoring equipment from nuclear facilities. That led to it building a stockpile of highly enriched uranium that prompted the Israeli attack earlier this month. 'The United States faces a real quandary here,' Davemport said. 'If the U.S. objective is to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, diplomacy is going to be more challenging politically because of the U.S. credibility deficit, but also technically, because we may never know if all of Iran's enriched uranium is accounted for. 'We may never know if all of Iran's centrifuges are accounted for,' he said. 'Any diplomatic agreement is going to need to look entirely different from what the U.S. has attempted to negotiate in the past — that is if the opportunity arises to negotiate an agreement,' she added. There are also concerns that Iran's nuclear program, or what is left of it, will move underground. That would begin with the stockpile of enriched uranium that is currently unaccounted for. 'If it is intact and Iran is able to keep it that way, they could potentially use it in a new covert enrichment facility to produce material for several nuclear weapons in a matter of months,' said Nicholas Miller, Assistant Professor of Government at Dartmouth College and an expert on nuclear proliferation and nonproliferation policy. 'If they think they can pull it off, Iran's leaders may calculate developing nuclear weapons is the best insurance policy against externally-backed regime change,' he added. Miller believes the strikes have made it 'more likely that the U.S. gets drawn deeply into the conflict.' 'Depending on the scope and manner of Iranian retaliation against U.S. interests, Trump may feel compelled to respond. Israel may also convince the Trump administration to aid in an effort to destroy the remnants of Iran's nuclear program,' he said. Davenport, too, said there is a risk that the matter remains unsolved, and that might mean a longer-term commitment than Trump might have hoped for. 'There's a risk that if the United States wants to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran in the future, it's going to need to strike Iran again and again. Because Iran is going to retain that knowledge, the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran cannot be eliminated,' she said. 'If the United States broadens its objectives and attempts to overthrow the regime, that could be severely destabilizing for the region, so not an approach for preventing a nuclear-armed Iran in the long term. Regime change is not a Non-Proliferation strategy,' she added.
