India in the crosshairs

Business Recorder

4 hours ago

There have been two wars on our two borders in a span of two months. But only one is ours. Best to focus on that one.
Those among us who say that Israeli and American aggression against Iran is condemnable in the strongest words, are right. There can be absolutely nothing right or justified in two nuclear powers ganging up against a non-nuclear country (no proof yet that Iran has weaponized enriched uranium) and launching unprovoked attacks against military and civilian targets. Pakistan has done right to express solidarity with Iran.
We have also taken the correct initiative at the UN by sponsoring a resolution urging an immediate halt to aggression against Iran.
But there are limits to what we can do. Or should do. These limits should be defined by our priorities. Not by our emotions.
All policy must therefore coalesce around these priorities with clarity and cold logic. This logic dictates that our real, clear and present danger emanates from India, and India alone. All other threats are either indirect, or implied, or both.
It makes perfect sense then to carry out our diplomatic and kinetic calculation in reference to the threat from India. The fog of war on our eastern border appears to have made this fact more difficult than it needs to be. Suddenly, it is all about Iran and Israel and the US, when in reality it should really be about India, India and India.
Nothing illustrates this more than our approach towards the United States, and more specifically, towards its president. In the last six weeks he has midwifed a ceasefire between Pakistan and India (to our advantage), hyphenated Islamabad and New Delhi (to our advantage), repeatedly mentioned Kashmir thereby internationalizing it to the maximum (to our advantage), praised the leadership of both countries numerous times (to our advantage), and invited Pakistan's army chief for a lunch at the White House (to our huge advantage).
At the same time, he has supported Israel's genocide in Gaza, persecuted immigrants in the US, slapped travel bans on countries that are mostly Muslim-majority, waged a tariff war against the world, insulted foreign leaders in the Oval office, and has now outrightly attacked Iran. It ain't a pretty scorecard by any measure.
How should we read the scorecard from our vantage point? When we praise Trump but also support Iran, most people believe this is a contradiction that reflects poorly on our decision-making. This may not be entirely true. The fact is that we do not need to conduct our policy in binaries. If the United States has acted immorally in Gaza and duplicitously in Iran, it is not for the first time it has done so.
And certainly not for the last time. But if the US president is providing us an advantage over India, this is definitely for the first time since at least the Bush-Musharraf bromance from two decades ago.
It is, in fact, after decades that Pakistan finds itself in a foreign policy sweet spot. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's disastrous decision to launch attacks on Pakistan in May, and our subsequent victory in the four-day conflict has catapulted Pakistan to an elevated diplomatic level beyond all calculations. This provides us with a great opportunity to strengthen ourselves militarily, project our narrative diplomatically and leverage this sweet spot to improve our economic situation.
It is a good time to be prudent and practical. It is a bad time to be reckless and rash.
This means matters on our western border should not distract us from the urgency needed at the eastern border. Emotional outbursts at the role of the US president in the Middle East are good for venting but should have no place on the policymaking table.
Pakistan is doing everything right by supporting Iran and condemning Israel, and it is doing nothing wrong with consolidating the relationship with President Trump. And no, this will not happen at the expense of our bond with China. That's fair to assume. Pakistan has given India a bloody nose with the support of China, and the next round with New Delhi is only a matter of time. We should aim to ensure that the next time is the last time.
This will require an effort that needs maximum support – or at the least, appreciative understanding – from global powers. The Indus Water Treaty red light is flashing.
As are many other danger lights from across the LoC and the international border. To wage successful offensive defence against India – the kind that deters and degrades India's will and capacity to strike at Pakistan – we need conceptual, doctrinal, material and military planning and preparedness far beyond our present level.
To achieve this, we will need laser focus on the Indian threat and sharpened policy prescriptions that deflect all distractions and zoom in on all relations that strengthen our ability to solve the Indian problem once and for all.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025