Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: Mets Run Wild on Rockies, Rays Stay Aggressive
As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I will be here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Last week, I highlighted the Mets as a team to stream stolen bases ahead of their series against the Rockies. As a team, they stole five bases during their three-game set over the weekend.
Eric Samulski,
Before we get to this week's important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
Credit to Jazz Chisholm Jr. for literally hitting the ground running upon his return from an oblique strain.
Jacob Melton is a player to watch. He's started seven of the Astros' last eight games since being promoted and has a chance to earn significant playing time in what's been a disappointing outfield mix in Houston so far.
Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.
Still not totally an everyday player, José Caballero has been unstoppable on the base paths lately. Another strong week has vaulted him ahead of Oneil Cruz and Luis Robert Jr. to the top base stealer in the league so far this season.
There's certainly some second-hand anger from fantasy managers seeing Chandler Simpson keep a spot on this leaderboard despite being demoted nearly two weeks ago at this point.
Remember to respect José Ramírez because he deserves it as a surefire Hall of Famer and still an elite fantasy player at 32 years old. He and Trea Turner are the only players over 30 here.
Next, here are some players that we'd hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths.
The dream of a 20-20 season for Jackson Merrill looks lost unless he starts running wild soon.
Agustín Ramírez's ability to swipe a bag was supposed to make him a unicorn at catcher. Yet, he hasn't successfully stolen a base since his major league debut and has only attempted one stolen base since his second game.
It's beyond frustrating that while Masyn Winn has turned a corner at the plate, he can't seem to figure out how to be a capable base stealer despite his plus speed.
Now, let's go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
Often the feature of this section, the Marlins will get a break this week after only allowing four stolen bases over the past week. That's a banner achievement for them as by far the easiest team to run on in the league this season.
Rather, the Rockies deserve some shine here after allowing seven stolen bases over the last week without catching anyone.
The Mets stole five alone against them over the weekend with newly called up Ronny Mauricio swiping two of his own. Mauricio has loud tools and could be the type of player to go 30-30 over a full season if everything were to break perfectly.
Otherwise, all five of the stolen bases the Rockies allowed in this series came with either Germán Márquez or Chase Dollander on the mound.
Francisco Lindor tormented Márquez by singling in each of his first two at-bats and immediately taking second base afterwards without a throw. In both instances, he took a full-on running lead and Márquez seemed to never consider looking him back.
Márquez has allowed the eight-most stolen bases of any pitcher in baseball and it's not difficult to see why.
Expect the Rockies to continue to be picked on along with the Marlins and Astros as the clear easiest teams to steal a base against in the league.
Watch the Angels
The Angels led all teams over the last week with eight stolen bases allowed without catching a single runner. In fact, they did so in just their first five games of the week with the Mariners stealing six on them between Saturday and Sunday.
Jack Kochanowicz had two come against him, which was somewhat surprising considering he's one of the top pitchers in Baseball Savant's Net Bases Prevented metric.
Kyle Hendricks allowed three himself and he's just slightly below average in terms of net bases prevented, but at the same time a wily veteran who we'd expect to be better at the game within the game than this.
Rather, catchers Logan O'Hoppe and Travis d'Arnaud – who both oddly have apostrophes in their names – both grade out poorly defensively and have likely been saved by a pitching staff who's better than most at holding runners on.
Heading into the week, they'd allowed the 10th-fewest stolen bases of any team in the league, so this was a bit of a surprise. They're a team to keep an eye on moving forward.
Speed Tested
Apart from the incredible duo of Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin in Kansas City who have combined to catch a ridiculous 10 of 21 would-be base stealers this season, the Mets have been the most difficult team to run on.
Luis Torrens has asserted himself as one of the best defensive catchers in the league and Francisco Alvarez has made tremendous strides there as well. In total, 29 bases have been stolen successfully against them while they've caught 18. That's a sensational ratio.
They're about to be tested though with the Rays coming to town this weekend. Tampa Bay leads all teams with 95 total stolen bases – nine more than any other team – and 62 since the beginning of May – 16 more than any other team. They're running at a breakneck pace.
It will be fun to monitor this matchup of strength versus strength.
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