Lurching towards another war
EDITORIAL: Belying international law and his own pledges to stay away from foreign conflicts, President Donald Trump's reckless decision to strike Iran's key nuclear sites could plunge the world into yet another endless war in the Middle East. Once again, Israeli interests have dictated US policy and trumped the interests of peace in the region. President Trump was quick to declare victory following the June 22 strikes, claiming they had 'totally obliterated' Iran's nuclear ambitions while Benjamin Netanyahu was at his obsequious best terming the decision as 'courageous'. Notwithstanding the claims of absolute destruction of Iran's nuclear material by the Trump Administration, the view of independent experts analysing commercial satellite imagery has been more muted, with many voicing the opinion that while there has been damage inflicted on Tehran's nuclear enterprise, it is far from completely destroyed.
It is important to note that President Trump's decision to eschew diplomacy in favour of confrontation, claiming that was the only way to deter Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, which he insisted Tehran was on the verge of obtaining, directly contradicted assessments from the US intelligence community. Back in March, the US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard had categorically declared that Iran was 'not building a nuclear weapon and … Khomeini has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme that he suspended in 2003'.
Israel's relentless bombing campaign against Iran, launched earlier in the month, also continues unabated, and now the American military intervention initiated at Tel Aviv's behest risks completely undermining the pillars of international stability. It strengthens a perverse logic, which follows that non-nuclear nations that agree to dialogue — as Iran did with its nuclear talks with the US — remain vulnerable to military action while nuclear-armed countries remain untouchable. Far from deterring Tehran, this turn of events may only harden its determination to pursue nuclear capabilities, regardless of the setbacks it has faced due to the American strikes.
The US, for its part, has clearly learnt no lessons from history, with President Trump now floating highly dangerous ideas around regime change in Iran. The devastating missteps committed by the world's sole superpower over the last 20 years in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya have now been followed yet again by an act of war based on a lie. For decades, Netanyahu has been goading successive American administrations into striking Iran by grossly exaggerating its nuclear capabilities, belying assessment made by UN weapons inspectors and Western intelligence agencies. And Trump has now conveniently played into his hands.
How Iran responds to this naked act of aggression will likely have far-reaching consequences even though the immediate options before it remain limited. A direct attack on US assets in the region will surely result in a major American reprisal that Tehran and the wider region can ill-afford. Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, the vital maritime corridor handling 20 percent of global oil shipments, could alienate Iran's regional allies and China, its largest oil importer, while also giving Western powers reason to intervene further in the region in a bid to prevent major market disruptions. For now, Tehran has confined its response to striking Israeli targets, but the threat of wider retaliation persists unless swift de-escalation efforts begin. However far-fetched this might seem right now, the surest path to defusing tensions lies in the US and Israel halting their campaign of aggression, starting with a ceasefire in Gaza as well as a cessation of hostilities with Iran. Third-party mediation by the likes of Qatar or China could provide opportunities for diplomatic off-ramps. Without such steps, the region, and the world, risks spiralling into uncontrolled conflict.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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