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Indian women are having fewer children. Is this good news or bad?
India's total fertility rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1, as per a recent United Nations demographic report. This means women are having fewer children than required to maintain a stable population. But is it a cause of concern yet? read more
Newborn babies are pictured inside a ward of a government hospital for women and children on the occasion of World Population Day, in Chennai on July 11, 2023. File Photo/AFP
India's total fertility rate (TFR) has dipped below the replacement rate, according to a new United Nations demographic report. It also estimates that the South Asian country's population will touch 1.46 billion (146 crore) in 2025.
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)'s 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, titled 'The Real Fertility Crisis', calls for a shift from panic over declining fertility to addressing unfulfilled reproductive goals. It states that millions of people are unable to meet their real fertility goals, which is an actual crisis than under- or overpopulation.
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Is falling fertility a cause of major concern for India?
Let's take a closer look.
What UN report reveals
India's total fertility rate has plunged to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1, according to the UN's SOWP report.
A replacement level is the average number of new births needed to maintain a stable population.
The report predicts that India's population could reach 1.7 billion (170 crore) in the next 40 years, before it starts declining.
While India's birth rate has slowed, its youth population remains significant, with 24 per cent in the 0-14 age bracket, 17 per cent in 10-19 group, and 26 per cent in the 10-24 age group.
Why India's fertility rate has dropped
The UN demographic report adds to previous reports that confirmed India's fertility rate was plummeting.
A Lancet study last year found that the country's total fertility rate is declining irreversibly to 1.29, far below the replacement level.
According to the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD)-2021, India's fertility rate of 6.18 in the 1950s dropped to 4.60 in 1980 and further to 1.91 in 2021. The study also forecast that the TFR could fall further to 1.04 — just one child per woman — by 2100.
There are various reasons behind India's falling fertility, which has sparked concerns, especially in southern states that fear the loss of parliamentary seats post the delimitation exercise.
India has one of the oldest family planning programmes that encourages people to have a maximum of two children through incentives and disincentives. 'During that time, the system required a lot of effort to change the mindset of the Indian population. Slowly, that behaviour change started showing up. Infant mortality declined substantially (because of various maternal and child health-related programmes and successful immunisation) meaning child survival was guaranteed. Small families became the norm,' Prof Anjali Radkar, head of the Centre for the Study of Social Exclusion and Inclusive Policy and dean of academic affairs, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, told Indian Express last year.
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Men sit next to a board displaying information about the different family planning methods available, during a sterilisation camp set up at a primary health care centre in Belwa village, Kishanganj district, Bihar, March 20, 2023. File Photo/Reuters
The increase in female literacy and women's participation in the workforce are other big factors behind a steady fall in fertility rates. Amid little help from their husbands in raising the child, women are no longer ready to sacrifice their careers for motherhood. They are also increasingly exercising their agency in choosing whether to even have a child or not, instead often picking career and financial independence.
As more and more young Indians move to foreign countries for higher studies and jobs and settle there, migration could be another factor for a fall in fertility levels.
'India has made significant progress in lowering fertility rates, from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today, thanks to improved education and access to reproductive healthcare,' Andrea M Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative, said, as per PTI.
'This has led to major reductions in maternal mortality, meaning million more mothers are alive today, raising children and building communities. Yet, deep inequalities persist across states, castes, and income groups,' she added.
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'The real demographic dividend comes when everyone has the freedom and means to make informed reproductive choices. India has a unique opportunity to show how reproductive rights and economic prosperity can advance together,' Wojnar stated.
Is India's falling fertility a cause for worry?
A decline in fertility rates results in demographic transition, such as an ageing population and a reduction in the young workforce.
'By 2050, the share of senior citizens in India will be more than 20 per cent, that is one in five people. This is what China is already showing signs of as a consequence of the one-child family policy,' Dr Radkar told Indian Express last year.
Many southern states in India that have effectively managed their population are already facing the consequences of slowing birth rates.
As per The Hindu, fertility has dropped below the replacement level in 31 states and Union Territories. However, it continues to be high in Uttar Pradesh (2.7), Bihar (3.0) and Meghalaya (2.9).
Last year, the chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu urged people to have more children . Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat also expressed concerns about India's falling fertility rate and advocated for at least three children.
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However, demographers say there is no need for alarm yet. 'As a demographer, I don't think states should be overly concerned about these issues. They can be resolved through constructive negotiations between federal and state governments,' Srinivas Goli, a professor of demography at the International Institute for Population Sciences, told BBC last year.
Instead, demographers say India's rapidly ageing population is concerning, as states have limited resources to support the elderly.
As fewer children are born, it would increase the gap between the elderly and young people required to care for them.
Demographers warn that India's healthcare, community centres and old-age homes are not equipped to deal with the demographic shift. 'Robust investments in prevention, palliative care, and social infrastructure are urgently needed to look after the ageing,' Goli said to BBC.
Experts also say that worry about labour shortages due to declining fertility is misplaced. This challenge can be overcome by promoting migration and focusing on extending the healthy years of the elderly.
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'The other challenge is to create decent full or part-time work for people in the age group of 60 to 75 years. Presently, their work participation is higher than most developing countries and the world because household survival strategies force them to enter the labour market. The imperative, instead, should be to relieve them from the drudgery of work while also providing decent employment. The country's healthcare system needs to improve and building old age homes for the elderly single and couple is long overdue,' Amitabh Kundu, Professor Emeritus at L J University, Ahmedabad, wrote for Indian Express last year.
He argued that the demographic changes could push more women into the workforce and 'take their place in the labour market'.
'For women to be able to manage careers with motherhood, it would be crucial for men to take greater responsibility for household and care work. Economic policies that stimulate growth and job creation, alongside social security and pension reforms, will also be essential in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of declining fertility rates,' Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of Population Foundation of India, told the newspaper.
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With inputs from agencies
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