Rafael Devers Trade Unique As It Can Be Spun As Larceny For Both Sides

Forbes

4 hours ago

Fans of the NBA know where they were when they heard the news of the trade of Luka Doncic from the Mavericks to the Lakers. Most people's immediate reaction was, 'Is that all it took?' Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 1st round pick landed one of the NBA's elite players in his prime. A much lesser light in Desmond Bane was traded from Memphis to Orlando this week for a significantly larger package. Suffice it to say that Mavs' GM Nico Harrison didn't get the best detail he could for Doncic.
Well, this week, one of MLB's biggest stars changed clubs. It was an unusual deal as both clubs involved fancy themselves as contenders, and no cash was included in the deal on either side. The Red Sox dealt cornerstone offensive player Rafael Devers to the Giants for lefty starter Kyle Harrison, righty hurler Jordan Hicks, 2024 1st round pick James Tibbs III, an outfielder, and rookie ball hurler Jose Bello. Depending on whose opinion you're reading, the deal has been spun as larceny for either club. Those with an analytical bent think the Giants got swindled, believing that Devers is not worth his 10-year, $313.5 million deal that runs through 2033, his age 36 season. Many others can't fathom how the Giants landed one of the best hitters in baseball without including a present significant MLB contributor in the deal. Honestly, there's merit on both sides of the equation.
Any evaluation of Devers must include the ongoing fiasco involving his unwillingness to move off of third base in Boston. The Red Sox signed Alex Bregman as a free agent this past offseason, and he is a far superior defender compared to Devers. The assumption was that Devers would move to DH, and the club would be much improved. Problem was, no one let Devers in on this. Or at least, the club handled it so clumsily that Devers flatly refused to move at first. Then to make matters worse, 1B Triston Casas was injured and lost for the season, and Devers, now grudgingly serving as a very productive DH, wasn't willing to play first. After a brutal 0 for 19, 15 strikeout start, Devers locked in, and through Sunday's games, was hitting .272-.401-.504.
So the club, who completed a three-game sweep of the Yankees on Sunday to improve its record to 37-36, could maintain the status quo, or shop their franchise player. They chose the latter.
Harrison is the presumed gem of the deal. While he's only 9-9, 4.48, with a 178/62 K/BB ratio in 182 2/3 innings in his brief MLB career, his minor league pedigree is strong. Each year, I compile a list of top minor league starting pitcher prospects based solely on statistical performance and age relative to league and level. Harrison was my #37 pitching prospect in 2021, #2 in 2022 and #5 in 2023. That's pretty special stuff. The Red Sox have some pretty strong pitching evaluators in their front office and on their coaching staff in former big leaguers Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey, and they obviously see something they like.
They must also like what they see in Hicks, whose record is poor at 1-5, 6.47, but who absolutely throws the heck out of the baseball. He's locked up through through 2027 on a four-year, $44 million deal. Tibbs is a well regarded prospect, lacking star ceiling but possessing a high floor. Bello is a live-armed 20-year-old who hasn't even pitched in a full season league yet. He's a lottery ticket.
The key to evaluating this deal is projecting Devers' future. And the first thing that must be done to that end is to assess his present, as he's unlikely to ascend from here, as he's moving the wrong way on the defensive spectrum and his body has begun to soften up at age 28.
Batted ball authority has always been Devers' calling card, and on most batted ball types, he has reached career bests in 2025. His overall average exit speed of 94.0 mph, his fly ball average exit speed of 95.3 mph and his ground ball average exit speed of 92.8 mph are all career highs. The overall and grounder marks are over two standard deviations above league average, the fly ball mark is over one above. He's not Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani authority-wise, but he's in the next tier.
His K/BB profile is also an asset, and that's a relatively new development. While his K rate has always been fairly well managed for a power hitter (22.8% this season, in the league average range), his BB rate has mushroomed to 16.8% this season, over two standard deviations above league average. He was leading the AL in walks with 56 at the time of the trade.
His batted ball profile also has no measurable weaknesses. His 37.4% fly ball rate is his highest ever, and his 3.0% pop up rate is his lowest since 2020. Both are in the league average range. His 18.2% liner rate is nearly a career low, but I wouldn't sweat it - liner rates are notoriously volatile. On top of everything else, Devers sprays the ball to all fields on the ground - he is not an extreme grounder-puller.
Thus far in 2025, Devers has been a bit lucky in the air (225 Unadjusted vs. 180 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) and on a line (149 vs. 114), but has been very unlucky on the ground (94 vs. 143). All told, he 'should be' hitting a bit less than his current actual numbers, more like a .253-.380-.480 hitter, for a 150 wRC+.
I'm not really sweating the low present batting average projection given the low liner rate. I see him as basically the same hitter he was in 2024, but with a higher walk rate.
Where is he going? Let's compare him to Miguel Cabrera, an even better hitter whose body was in a better place at age 28. He remained at least a 5.0 WAR player (a level Devers hasn't exceeded since 2019) through age 33, and then fell off of a cliff. Devers' contract runs through his age 33 season. He's going to be falling from a lower peak, at perhaps a higher rate of descent than Cabrera, but if he can remain 80-90% of his present offensive self through age 31-32, could the Giants really complain?
The other interesting angle here is that Devers is going from one team with a Gold Glove 3B to another, as Matt Chapman is locked in for the long term in San Francisco. Expect the Buster Posey-led Giants to more concisely and professionally lay out their expectations for their new star, who will move forward as a DH/1B.
Another overlooked piece of this deal is that while there is risk in Devers' contract, there is also risk in Hicks'. Sure the Red Sox could figure him out and make him more productive, but the chances of him being an impact starter or a high-end closer would appear remote at this point. Useful piece? Sure, with some luck. This partially mitigates the financial cost absorbed by the Giants, and cut loose by the Sox.
From the Bosox' perspective, it's all about Harrison. There's a high-end starter in there somewhere, and it's up to them to unlock it. They need to be patient with him, and if all goes well, he could be a nice counterpart to Garrett Crochet atop their rotation.
So I get that Devers' contract might be technically underwater, but 28-year-old star bats generally aren't available, and the Giants are out from under Hicks' money now too. And I get that the Red Sox didn't get a now dude as part of this transaction, but they removed a massive financial liability that enables them to go star-hunting, and Harrison could turn out to be really something.
When proponents of both sides of a deal are going crazy in polar opposite directions for entirely different reasons, the truth tends to be somewhere in the middle. It's now up to the players, player development systems and coaching staffs to get to work to determine who wins and loses it.