Biggest misses from the 2015 MLB Draft — Dillon Tate, Tyler Jay among those who didn't click

New York Times

14 hours ago

The sheer random nature of life means sometimes even great picks in the first round don't pan out, and of course sometimes bad picks in the first round don't pan out either. Here's a look at all of the 2015 MLB Draft first-round picks who didn't ultimately make my redrafted top 30, with a look at what made them first-rounders a decade ago and/or why they didn't become the players their drafting teams hoped they'd be. It's a lot of 'remember some guys' for people who follow the prospect world.
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(Note: Career WAR numbers as of June 14. Scouting grades on a 20-80 scale.)
Drafted: No. 4
Career WAR to date: 2.1
Tate was the top college pitching prospect in a weak group, but also represents one of the last of his kind — he threw hard, but the fastball didn't have great life or movement, and there wasn't a lot of deception. He struggled to miss bats immediately, even in Low A, and the Rangers traded him a year later for Carlos Beltrán. He pitched for Toronto earlier this year as a middle reliever.
Drafted: No. 6
Career WAR to date: 0.0
Jay was pretty badly overworked at the University of Illinois, missed most of 2017 with a shoulder impingement, and was ineffective when he returned in 2018. The Reds flat-out bought his contract from the Twins in 2019, then released him during the pandemic, after which he discovered he had eosinophilic esophagitis, an autoimmune disorder that caused him to lose weight and stamina. He was out of baseball for three years, returning to pitch for the Joliet Slammers in the independent Frontier League in 2022. Mets scout Jaymie Bane signed him in 2023, and Jay made his much-delayed major-league debut in April 2024, nearly eight years after he was first drafted. He's still pitching in Triple A for the Brewers.
Drafted: No. 8
Career WAR to date: -0.2
Fulmer threw hard and had a filthy breaking ball, but in my draft recap that year, I wrote: 'Fulmer projects as a reliever for me, with a max-effort, rapid-fire delivery and a double head-whack at release, along with below-average command across the board.' The White Sox tried to start him but he posted consistently high walk rates, continuing to do so even when they moved him to relief, and they eventually waived him in 2020. He's in Triple A with the Angels.
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Drafted: No. 10
Career WAR to date: Has not played in majors
The highest-drafted player in this class to fail to reach the majors, Randolph was a high school shortstop who was supposed to have one of the best hit tools in the class but no position. The Phillies took him and stuck him in left field, where he never looked remotely comfortable, and for a while it looked like it might work as he hit .302/.425/.442 in the complex that summer and a respectable enough .274/.355/.357 in Low A the next year, skipping short-season. He never progressed from there, eventually leaving as a minor-league free agent. He's playing in the Mexican League this year and has been out of affiliated ball since 2022.
Drafted: No. 13
Career WAR to date: Has not played in majors
Whitley was a somewhat raw but toolsy high school outfielder who seemed to be progressing as a hitter when he tore the labrum in his throwing shoulder in March 2018, missing that entire season. He struggled in 2019, then of course didn't play in 2020, and I think the loss of two seasons in three years was too much for him to overcome given the work he still had to do on his hitting approach. He's been out of baseball since 2023.
Drafted: No. 14
Career WAR to date: -0.6
Allard had a hammer curveball in high school with a fastball that was just barely enough; I thought that he'd get to at least a little more velocity as he matured, but he hasn't, averaging just 90.5 mph as a reliever this year for Cleveland with a 10.4 percent strikeout rate.
Drafted: No. 16
Career WAR to date: 2.4
Kaprielian missed most of 2016 with an injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery; the Yankees traded him to Oakland while he was recovering, and he was out for all of 2017 and 2018. He debuted in 2020, threw more than 100 innings in 2021 and 2022 for the A's, but had shoulder surgery in 2023, and last pitched in 2024, posting a 7.11 ERA in Triple A for the Blue Jays.
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Drafted: No. 17
Career WAR to date: Has not played in majors
By now, you probably know Aiken's story: The Astros took him No. 1 in 2014, but a post-draft physical found a malformation in his elbow, and the Astros reduced their offer, which Aiken declined. He went to pitch at IMG Academy but his UCL tore almost immediately and he had Tommy John surgery in March 2015, after which Cleveland selected and signed him, hoping that they'd get the 2014 version. They didn't; he threw one full season in 2017, walking more guys than he struck out, and made just one more appearance after that. He retired after Cleveland released him and is now working as a player-agent.
Drafted: No. 18
Career WAR to date: 0.3
Bickford was a first-round pick twice, as the Blue Jays took him in 2013 but didn't sign him after his post-draft physical, after which he went to Cal State Fullerton for a year, then junior college. He showed big velocity but never had a consistent breaking ball and struggled to repeat his low-slot arm action. The Giants traded him a year later for the lefty reliever Will Smith, and Bickford has bounced between Triple A and the majors ever since, pitching well again this year for the Iowa Cubs, but never showing a good enough second pitch to get major-leaguers out consistently.
Drafted: No. 19
Career WAR to date: 4.4
Newman is one of my biggest misses in the other direction from the kind I usually discuss. I thought Newman had a chance for a 60 or better hit tool and saw him run plus myself, in a game where he and teammate Scott Kingery both looked like stars. I wasn't alone in liking these two guys — I knew scouts who had strong first-round grades on each of them — but the proof is in the pudding. Newman still makes contact, but he has never been able to impact the ball or even drive it consistently to the pull side, and he also lost a grade of speed pretty much the moment he signed. He's still playing, losing 0.7 career WAR this season already, and may go several more years as a replacement-level utility infielder because he can play shortstop. I will always wonder if the outcome might have been different in another organization, given the Pirates' overall difficulty developing any sort of power hitter in this era.
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Drafted: No. 20
Career WAR to date: -1.9
Martin peaked as a freshman at Florida; he didn't hit as well the next two years, and his defensive reputation didn't match reality. He did have first-round tools, at least, so this was a reach of a pick but not completely bonkers. The A's didn't protect him after the 2018 season and the Orioles selected him in the Rule 5 draft. He's started this year in the independent Atlantic League before the Rangers signed him to play in Triple A.
Drafted: No. 21
Career WAR to date: Has not played in majors
Russell had big stuff from a really rough delivery, blew out his elbow, and got the yips, throwing just 42 innings in his minor-league career, missing four seasons and taking a 'mental break' in his words before a brief return for four innings in 2021.
Drafted: No. 22
Career WAR to date: 0.7
Burrows has faced 49 major-league right-handed hitters in his career. Eight of them homered. He had arm strength, but that was really about it, as he never developed even a fringy breaking ball and his fastball turned out to be rather hittable.
Drafted: No. 23
Career WAR to date: -0.1
Plummer was a high school position player from the same Michigan high school that produced DJ LeMahieu and Karl Kauffmann, facing some low-caliber competition that made it hard to assess how good his hit tool was. It wasn't good. He missed the 2016 season due to injury, didn't hit at all for three years, then had a breakout campaign in 2021 before leaving as a minor-league free agent to sign with the Mets. He debuted in 2022, left as a free agent again, and was released by the Reds in March 2023.
Drafted: No. 25
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Career WAR to date: 0.0
I had Stewart at 70 on my pre-draft rankings, as he had a bad body and struggled with the wood bat in the summer of 2014. He could take a walk and had average to slightly better power, but the hit tool was never there. He's hitting .130/.245/.276 in Triple A for the Pirates this year.
Drafted: No. 27
Career WAR to date: Has not played in majors
Nikorak blew out his elbow in 2017 and walked 82 in 68 1/3 innings in his brief pro career. He retired in April 2021.
Drafted: No. 29
Career WAR to date: Has not played in majors
I thought this was a great pick; Harris showed what appeared to be two above-average pitches and had a good delivery, but he faltered late in the spring, then was awful in short-season after the draft. He never missed many bats anywhere in the minors, lacking a pitch to work east-west (among other things), and last appeared in affiliated ball in 2021. The best player in the Jays' draft that year was the guy they didn't sign: second-round pick Brady Singer, who they flunked based on his post-draft medical and he ended up a first-rounder in 2018 after going to Florida.
Drafted: No. 30
Career WAR to date: Has not played in majors
Holder was a plus defensive shortstop who couldn't hit in college and then couldn't hit in pro ball. He played two years in Triple A, one for the Yankees and one for the Rockies, and has been out of baseball since 2022.
(Photo illustration of Dillon Tate and Tyler Jay: Rodger Mallison / Fort Worth Star-Telegram / Tribune News Service via Getty Images and Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)