
Which lethal weapon are Houthis using that scared mighty US Air Force? Are they using..., even F-35 and F-16...
New Delhi: The Houthi rebels of Yemen have intimidated even the American Air Force, which is said to be the most powerful air force in the world. Recently, during airstrikes by the American Air Force in Yemen, the Houthi rebels came very close to shooting down American F-35 Joint Strike Fighters and F-16 Vipers. The interesting thing is that, despite being equipped with advanced systems, the air defense capabilities of the Houthis are largely underdeveloped in front of the American Air Force. This raises the question of what kind of special weapon the Houthis have that poses a threat to American fighters? What missiles do the Houthis have?
According to a report from The War Zone, the Houthis possess a stockpile of infrared-guided R-73 and R-27 air-to-air missiles. These missiles have been reconfigured for surface-to-air use. Locally, they are referred to as Thaqib-1 and Thaqib-2. The Yemeni rebel group also has surface-to-air Sakr-series infrared-homing missiles that have manoeuvring capabilities.
The capability of the Sakr missiles to target high-flying and fast fighter jets is likely somewhat limited, but the Thaqib-1 and Thaqib-2 have demonstrated the ability to pose a threat to fighter aircraft in the past. The Houthis have released footage taken by infrared cameras after targeting American and other countries' drones with surface-to-air strikes. This indicates that the group is using infrared sensors for missile types beyond just infrared missiles, including radar-guided surface-to-air missile systems.
Unlike active radar, infrared sensors are of a passive nature. This means they do not emit signals that would allow pilots to know of an existing threat. This poses challenges for both stealth and non-stealth aircraft. By integrating infrared sensors with radar-guided surface-to-air missile systems, they can help remain hidden by not emitting radiation for a long time in their engagement cycle. This results in very little time for the targeted aircraft to respond. CBS News reported in one of its stories, citing Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, that Houthis and Iranians have used electro-optical systems because they are completely passive systems. These things are difficult to detect because they leave no trace before launch.
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Indian Express
8 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Amid tariff war, China appears unfazed, but its economy could be vulnerable; high debt and high deficit loom large
China's economy seems to have ostensibly shaken off the doomsday predictions stemming from the ongoing trade war with the United States, with that country's national statistics bureau presenting a picture of calm in its later GDP data release for April 2025. It showed stable growth with a mild softening in consumption and investment, and overall employment largely remaining stable. Retail sales of consumer goods grew 5.1 per cent year-on-year, just slightly lower than analysts' estimates of 5.5 per cent, while service industry production too increased by 6 per cent, and fixed asset investment rose 4 per cent over the previous year. Officials cited key factors like consumer trading programmes that incentivise purchase of household goods through a discounting scheme, increase in tourist and transportation inflows, as well as the Belt and Road Initiative as 'stabilising forces'. They are upbeat about economic growth projections staying on track, but analysts remain cautious. China's strengths, apart from its large and diversified economy, include its strong GDP growth prospects relative to peers, its pivotal role in global trade and robust external finances. More importantly, Beijing is seeing success in its efforts to build a whole new economic engine as part of its 'Made in China 2025' national strategic plan, which promises to be a source of future resilience, according to analysts. This includes world-beating companies in areas such as new energy, including solar panels and batteries, electric vehicles, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals and AI. Notable among these are GCL Technology, the world's second leading producer of polysilicon — the key material for solar panels; electric vehicles makers led by global auto heavyweight BYD, Leapmotor and Nio and lithium-ion battery makers including CATL and BYD. The Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) combine, which have been working together to develop and produce cutting-edge chips, particularly in the light of US sanctions limiting Huawei's access to advanced technology, have been successful, quite like the Chinese space programme that also worked around American sanctions. Even as the prolonged slump in China's property market is dragging down consumer confidence and weighing on an economy already suffering from the effects of low productivity in heavy industry and cheap manufacturing, Beijing is seeing remarkable success in its focus on creating a high-tech, clean, and sustainable replacement to its old economy in the forms of these new age companies, with the aim of becoming the global leaders in each of these technologies. These, in turn, are seen as serving to transform China's image as the world's manufacturer of mass-produced goods and materials. As US President Donald Trump and his cabinet full of China hawks set out to address the trade imbalances, there could some looming concerns for Beijing. While the general impression is that a prolonged phase of higher duties could hurt the US more than China, analysts point to the fact that given the latter's precarious finances and some inherent structural weaknesses, a drawn-out tariff war could hurt Beijing as much as Washington, DC, if not more. If it lingers, China's underlying structural issues that range from high government debt, demographic decline, rising youth unemployment, combined with growing trade tension, could force a stumble, if not a stall. Festering Problems What is undeniable is that China's growth over the last couple of decades has been powered by capital investments, especially in the real estate sector, much of which has been financed by an inefficient banking system. With domestic debt levels high and rising, the property market continues to be under severe stress ever since property major Evergrande went belly up in 2023. The real estate crisis has badly dented consumer sentiment, given that nearly one in four Chinese have some sort of an investment in real estate. The investment in China's property market fell by nearly 10 per cent in the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to latest official data, amid the renewed trade tensions with the US. For Chinese consumer sentiment taking a hit, the residential real estate market is one important factor. Then there are structural issues with the Chinese economy as well. While China has leveraged export growth and infrastructure investments to power its economic development over the last four decades, there is now the growing problem of youth unemployment. According to Hong Kong-based Spanish economist Alicia Garcia Herrero, outsiders see less of the unemployment problem than what actually exists there because in the Chinese manufacturing sector, workers are routinely asked to take unpaid leave. So these workers end up working fewer hours, and earning less, while technically being on the rolls. This, according to Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis and adjunct Professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, is one reason why disposable income is not growing in China. The trigger for that is automation, given that industrial capacity in China is increasingly getting mechanised. 'China's economic power is increasing, but household power, or purchasing power, is not'. Fitch Ratings said in an April report that the step-up in fiscal stimulus announced by China's government for 2025 is likely to support the economic outlook, but the large budget deficit points to a continued rise in government debt in the next few years. Deteriorating public finances were the key factor behind the rating agency's decision to revise the 'outlook on China's 'A+' sovereign rating' to negative in April 2024. Debt/deficit Overhang China's fiscal deficit is budgeted to rise to 8.8 per cent of GDP in 2025, up from 6.5 per cent in 2024 (on a Fitch-adjusted basis) based on government reports at the annual legislative session of the National People's Congress. Experts say this – the combined deficit of the federal government and provinces – could be closer to 10 per cent. This is well above the projected median deficit for 'A' category sovereigns of 2.7 per cent of GDP, Fitch said in its report. The government's official deficit target was raised to 4 per cent of GDP in 2025 from 3 per cent last year. Experts say that China's total-country-debt-to-GDP ratio could be higher than what is put out, if one were to take into account the so-called 'hidden debt' and adjust for 'inflated' GDP claims. Western analysts have consistently maintained that China did not grow anywhere near the reported 5 per cent pace last year and are willing to shave off up to a percentage point from that number. Lower GDP, consequently, worsens the deficit situation statistically. Some of this increase in deficit is now driven by lower revenue, due partly to a structural decline in property-related revenues and tax cuts. Revenue is budgeted to fall to just 21.1 per cent of GDP in 2025, under Fitch's adjusted definition, down from 28.4 per cent in 2019. The government is discussing the introduction of new revenue-enhancing measures, but fiscal consolidation could face challenges if these are not forthcoming. 'China has grown almost entirely through capital investment,and because there isn't enough to invest in, a lot of good money chases bad, and they have reached a limit,' noted Anne Stevenson-Yang founded J Capital Research. That problem only seems to be worsening. 'External pressures will be particularly acute for Mainland China, at a time when the domestic economy is still finding its footing amid ongoing property sector challenges, subdued household confidence and consumption, and deflationary pressures… Fiscal policy will likely be a key tool for trying to stabilise the property market and offsetting external and domestic headwinds, keeping growth at around 4.3 per cent, but driving wider fiscal deficits and higher government debt, Jeremy Zook, Director, Fitch-Hong Kong said in a report titled 'Greater China Sovereigns Outlook 2025'. High fiscal deficits, coupled with subdued nominal GDP growth and the materialization of contingent liabilities, could continue to put upward pressure on China's debt problem. 'We estimate that general government debt (including central and local government debt) rose above 60 per cent of GDP in 2024, up from around 55 per cent in 2023 and exceeding the median for 'A'-category sovereigns of 57 per cent. In 2025, the debt ratio is likely to rise to the high-60s per cent of GDP level, based on budget plans and the ongoing 'debt swap' that will bring around trillion of yuan worth off-balance sheet debt onto local government books,' Fitch said. Expanding consumption remains the top government priority for Beijing in 2025. It is still unclear as to how large the fiscal impulse has to be, or whether it will sustainably lift underlying domestic demand. The government has set an ambitious growth target of around 5 per cent for 2025, and a lot will depend on stking demand, amid headwinds from subdued domestic demand, lingering property-sector stress and rising external challenges. Growth moderation/local govt debt According to the IMF Executive Board, which concluded the 2024 Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) with China, said that China's investment-led high growth model has given way to more moderate growth amid an unresolved property sector adjustment and an overhang of local government financing vehicle debt. Financial stability risks are elevated and rising, as compared to the 2017 FSAP, It noted, as asset quality deteriorates and bank profitability declines. While the largest banks are well capitalised and liquid, and appear resilient to shock, mid-sized and smaller banks 'appear more vulnerable'. The property sector downturn and local government financing vehicle debt pose risks, while loss deferral practices reduce transparency and may veil losses, the IMF said. Amid all this is the unfolding US-China trade war. There is a sense in Washington DC that China has gotten away with low cost manufacturing for too long. No other country has had the same level of global dominance across product categories since the early 1970s. This is more significant now than in earlier decades, when trade represented a much lower share of global goods production and consumption. For instance, the global trade-to-GDP ratio in 1970 was around 25 per cent, but by 2022, that climbed to over 60 per cent. Weakening domestic demand, alongside export-facilitating policies in products, where China is the world's dominant manufacturer, has led to prices collapsing globally and driving other national producers out of business. While the benefit of this has been a phase of sustained lower global inflation, China has simultaneously created a progressive stranglehold over global manufacturing: a level of manufacturing dominance by a single country seen only twice before in world history — by the UK at the start of the Industrial Revolution, and by the US just after the second World War, according to research by the Rhodium Group and from views flagged by Noah Smith's 'Manufacturing is a war now' piece. What makes China's extraordinary dominance in manufacturing worse is the continuing weakness in domestic demand in China. That too comes from the problem of China's unwillingness to vacate its earlier specialisation in low value-added manufactured products as it moved up the global value chain. This has concomitantly led to a weakness in Chinese demand for imported goods, which was expected to rise if China had ceded the manufacture of low value-added manufactured goods as it progressively moved up the value chain. So, more than Beijing's export competitiveness, weak Chinese imports explain this continuing imbalance. Anil Sasi is National Business Editor with the Indian Express and writes on business and finance issues. He has worked with The Hindu Business Line and Business Standard and is an alumnus of Delhi University. ... Read More


Economic Times
10 minutes ago
- Economic Times
How is India benefiting from supply chain diversification away from China? Morgan Stanley's Chetan Ahya explains
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads , Chief Asia Economist,says India is gaining advantage due to tariff differences with China. American companies are considering increased imports from India. Government policies are boosting manufacturing and exports. Electronics manufacturing is expanding beyond mobile phones. Infrastructure development will further strengthen India's manufacturing exports. Optimism in Indian equity markets aligns with positive economic fundamentals. The organization maintains a bullish outlook on think that the government capex has been the key anchor of the capex cycle and to the extent to which India has been embarking on this focus on manufacturing capex, the government's focus on infrastructure would be an important anchor to that private capex eventually improving as now, it is still the government capex and we had seen a bump down or a small slowdown period for government capex post general elections last year. But we have seen that in the last three-four months, there has been a meaningful pick up in government capex. In March, we saw that both central and state government capex growing at a very high pace and that has now taken the 12-month trailing centre plus state combined capital expenditure to close to the peaks that we had seen right before the general have seen this strength in government capex coming back again. As far as private capex is concerned, we were expecting that would have picked up a lot more by this time, but to the extent to which we have seen this trade tensions emerge from early this year that is going to affect the capex outlook not only in the region, but also in India, despite the fact that India has lower exposure to global goods reality is that it still has a meaningful exposure of 12% of GDP being its goods exports to GDP. We are expecting private capex to be going through a bit of an adjustment period in the environment of global trade tensions and then, over the next calendar year, that is, in 2026, we should see a pick up in private capex because by that time, the damage out of this global trade tensions would have been behind is benefiting on account of it. Right now, during a period where tariffs on China, even after having come down, are still at a very high run rate of 30% and from the 2018 period, you also have about 11% weighted average tariff on imports from China that the US has imposed. Cumulatively, we still have a 41% tariff rate for import from China for the US and that does give some sectors an advantage over China in terms of pricing and even sort of thinking about a bit more from a medium-term corporate sector in America is beginning to think about importing more from India. India is probably benefiting on account of that. Then, from a medium-term perspective, we have always argued that look, it is not just about taking away market share from China, but just getting rightful market share for India in the global goods exports and for that India's policies that were important and the government has been taking the right policies to boost that manufacturing sector have seen electronics manufacturing getting a leg up. We are going to see that expand into more and more products within the electronic segment apart from mobile phones and laptops. And at the same time, we think that from a medium-term perspective, this whole push towards infrastructure will really strengthen India's manufacturing exports. It is really a lot of the domestic policies that will be important from the long term apart from the short-term benefit that it may get on account of differential tariff rates between India and our regional and India strategists have been very constructive on India. So, we are aligned up as a house on being bullish on India.


Time of India
34 minutes ago
- Time of India
A new era of trade warfare has begun for the US and China
WASHINGTON: The U.S.-China trade conflict is quickly morphing into a fight over global supply chains, as the two nations limit the sharing of critical technologies that could have lasting consequences for scores of industries. The United States last week suspended some sales to China of components and software used in jet engines and semiconductors, a response to a clampdown by Beijing on the export of minerals used in large sectors of manufacturing. Both sides over the past few days have accused the other of operating in bad faith. The supply chain warfare, which comes on top of tariffs the two countries have inflicted on the other's imports, has alarmed companies that say they cannot make their products without components sourced from both. And it has made officials in Washington increasingly nervous about other choke points where China could squeeze the United States, including pharmaceuticals or shipping. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Utilice el servicio de élite para la aplicación de la Green Card Green Card Lottery Experts Undo "The supply chain wars that we've been speculating about for years are now happening," said Liza Tobin, a former White House national security adviser who is now the managing director at Garnaut Global, a risk advisory firm. In recent weeks, the airplane industry has emerged as both a weapon, and a victim, in this fight. Live Events The jet engine technology that powers airplanes, and the navigation systems that control them, largely come from the United States, developed by companies like General Electric. In China's quest to build a viable competitor to Boeing, for example, it has had to source engine technology from GE Aerospace. But a jet engine also cannot be made without China. Minerals that are processed there are essential for special coatings and components that help the engine operate smoothly at high temperatures, as well as other uses. Beijing restricted exports of those minerals, known as rare earths, in April after President Donald Trump began imposing high tariffs on Chinese imports. The move has threatened to shutter what is left of advanced manufacturing in the United States -- including the work done by many defense contractors. In May, Ford Motor temporarily closed a factory in Chicago after one of its suppliers ran out of the magnets it needed to build cars. The United States responded with its own tech restrictions. Last week, U.S. officials suspended some licenses that allowed American companies to ship airplane technology to China, as well as others related to biotechnology and semiconductors, people familiar with the move say. At the same time, officials in the departments of Defense and Interior and the National Security Council are accelerating efforts to find more domestic supplies of rare earths, including considering U.S. government funding for new mines and processing facilities, people familiar with the matter said. But any such efforts could take years to come to fruition. On average, it has taken the United States 29 years to develop a single mine, according to statistics from S&P. The Trump administration is also weighing further actions. It has been considering including major Chinese chipmakers, as well as units of Chinese technology giants like Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu, on a so-called entity list that prohibits them from engaging in trade with the United States, people familiar with the discussions said. The supply chain battle has been years in the making. And both countries have been trying to guard against the other's control of strategic goods by diversifying their own sources of supply. After Trump levied tariffs on China during his first term, many American companies established factories in countries outside China, including Vietnam and Mexico. Xi Jinping, China's leader, set out to make his country less reliant on foreign sources of energy and technology by pumping huge investments into factories making semiconductors, solar panels and electric vehicles. Even so, the economies remain deeply integrated, an intractable reality as hundreds of billions of dollars in trade flow across the Pacific each year. While both countries are resolved to reduce their dependencies on the other for national security reasons, doing so will be expensive and painful. NYT News Service A cargo ship at Yangshan Port in Shanghai, Feb. 1, 2025. The U.S. and Chinese economies remain deeply integrated, with hundreds of billions of dollars of trade flowing across the Pacific each year. (The New York Times) Since 2022, for example, the United States has been steadily expanding a global system to regulate advanced semiconductors and stop the technology from flowing to China. The rules have been aimed at restricting China's access to artificial intelligence and advanced computing needed to augment its military. But they have been met with fierce resistance from an industry that sees China as an important source of revenue. The United States has extended these export controls around the world, even forbidding companies in other countries from selling products to China if they use American parts, technology or software to manufacture them. While some foreign governments have bristled at these rules, many have fallen in line. This system rests on the idea that the United States should be the sole global power whose rules other countries need to abide by. But for China, rare earth minerals are a way to challenge the American assertion of dominance. Beijing set up a licensing system that allows it to monitor and approve sales of rare earths, and magnets made from them, to companies worldwide. When Trump ratcheted up tariffs on China to 145% in April, Beijing responded by targeting shipments of rare earths, including pausing many of them. In May, American and Chinese officials arranged a meeting in Geneva to try to defuse their trade tensions. The Trump administration had several reasons to try to strike a truce. Companies had been warning of the risk of empty store shelves later this year because of plummeting imports from China, and stock and bond markets were flashing warning signs. But it was China's rare earth restrictions that appeared to put the most pressure on the United States to reach a resolution. Negotiators agreed in Geneva to lower tariffs. As part of the deal, China said it would "suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April," according to a joint statement. U.S. officials say Chinese shipments have yet to return to their previous levels. During an appearance on CNBC on Friday, Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, said that the Chinese were "slow-rolling their compliance" and that American officials "haven't seen the flow of some of those critical minerals like they're supposed to be doing." Trump was more blunt. In a post on Truth Social on Friday, he wrote that China had "TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US," adding, "So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!" Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, denied the accusation in a briefing Tuesday, saying that China had "earnestly implemented" the consensus reached in Geneva. Chinese officials say it is the United States that broke the deal, including by issuing a notice saying that the use of chips made by Huawei, the Chinese technology firm, anywhere in the world violated U.S. law. "The U.S., without any factual basis, has smeared and accused China, imposed export controls on chips, suspended sales of chip design software to China and announced the cancellation of Chinese student visas -- extreme measures that severely undermine the Geneva Consensus and harm China's legitimate rights and interests," Lin said. While some U.S. auto and electronics makers have recently received licenses from China for mineral shipments, the uncertainty and continued backlog of requests for the products are continuing to make companies nervous. China had also appeared to be giving preference to European companies over American ones. The tensions are spilling over into other aspects of the United States' diplomatic relations with China. The Trump administration has also proposed plans to "aggressively revoke" visas of Chinese students, including those with ties to the Communist Party. It is unclear how the tensions can be defused. Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said Monday that Trump and Xi would likely speak in a call this week. The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said he had "no information to offer" on the call. Daniel H. Rosen, the co-founder of Rhodium Group, a research company, said that Beijing recognised years ago that rare earths would be central to advanced technologies and subsidised the build-out of those supplies. The United States, he added, "horribly underestimated" the demand for them. China mines 70% of the world's rare earths, but it does the chemical processing for 90% of them. The country also makes more than 80% of the world's batteries, more than 70% of its electric cars, and about half of the world's steel, iron and aluminum, according to data from the International Energy Agency. Securing an alternative supply would likely require the United States to invest hundreds of billions of dollars, Rosen said, and cooperation with global partners who were willing to work to set up supply chains outside China. "It's going to be expensive," he said. "We have a long way to go." While some shipments of minerals have restarted, many U.S. industries remain anxious about shortages of supplies. Paul Triolo, a partner at Albright Stonebridge Group, said that the Chinese licensing system was cumbersome and that there had been a notable drop in shipments of critical minerals since the start of April, when Trump first issued astronomical tariffs on China. Triolo said the United States had no choice except to negotiate with Beijing on the issue, as well as set up a long-term strategy with other countries to reduce its dependence on China over the next five to seven years. "This problem is deep and long lasting," he said. "It will not go away, or be easily solved."