Ishiba might call election to avoid no-confidence vote in the Diet

Asahi Shimbun

3 days ago

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba appears willing to dissolve the Lower House and call a snap election before opposition parties can vote on a no-confidence motion against his Cabinet, several senior officials said June 2.
Ishiba has shared this idea with Hiroshi Moriyama, secretary-general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the sources said.
Debate between the ruling and opposition parties is intensifying as the regular Diet session nears its close on June 22.
Ishiba is apparently preparing for a no-confidence motion submitted to the Lower House by the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.
The ruling coalition lost its Lower House majority in the election last autumn. Therefore, a no-confidence motion will be passed if all opposition parties vote in favor of it.
And if that happens, the prime minister must dissolve the Lower House within 10 days or have the Cabinet resign en masse under Article 69 of the Constitution.
Therefore, Ishiba has informed those around him of his intention to dissolve the Lower House without waiting for a vote on a no-confidence motion, according to sources.
There are two reasons behind Ishiba's thinking.
First, Ishiba wants to prevent the CDP from submitting the no-confidence motion in the first place by threatening to dissolve the Lower House for a snap election.
He believes the CDP is not prepared for such an election and would want more time before such a poll, the sources said.
Ishiba could also appeal to public opinion by saying the CDP has forced his hand and is trying to create a 'political vacuum' while his government is trying to deal with soaring rice prices and U.S. tariffs.
Second, the slumping approval ratings of the Ishiba Cabinet are showing signs of bottoming out. If he decides to call a snap election, his LDP might have a chance to regain its majority in the Diet chamber.
Approval from at least 51 Lower House members is required for the submission of a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet.
Currently, the CDP is the only opposition party with the numbers to independently submit such a motion.
But within the CDP's executive committee, there is a strong belief that the prime minister will choose dissolution over resignation, sources said.
However, some CDP executives are worried that the party will be seen as 'weak-kneed' if it does not submit a no-confidence motion.
CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda is carefully considering how to handle the no-confidence motion while keeping a close eye on the other opposition parties.
(This article was written by Kohei Morioka and Takahiro Okubo.)