The six college football coaches with best chance of winning first national title

USA Today

17-02-2025

The six college football coaches with best chance of winning first national title
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Three's a crowd, but four's a party. Who's going to become the fourth active coach to win a national championship? Texas' Steve Sarkisian tops the list.
Transfer hauls give Oregon's Dan Lanning and LSU's Brian Kelly a shot at national title next season.
Penn State's James Franklin boasts another strong team, but can he win the big games?
Three's a crowd, but four's a party.
Ryan Day joined Kirby Smart and Dabo Swinney as college football's only active coaches to win a national championship. The number was as high as five before Nick Saban's retirement, Jim Harbaugh's bolt for the NFL and Mack Brown's ouster.
So, who stands in the on-deck circle? Let's peek at six candidates likeliest to turn three into four.
6. James Franklin (Penn State)
Penn State should be ranked in the preseason top five. It returns quarterback Drew Allar and its top two running backs from last season's team that reached the College Football Playoff semifinals. So, Franklin's a prime candidate, right? Well, there's one problem: Franklin almost never wins his biggest games, and he'd need to win a big game or two or three to capture a crown.
The Nittany Lions lost each of their three toughest games last season. Also, Penn State must replace defensive standout Abdul Carter and offensive standout Tyler Warren. Making the playoff seems probable, but a national championship? "Big Game James" would need to stop being a sarcastic dig at Franklin.
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5. Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame)
Notre Dame's got good bones. Good culture. Its independent scheduling positions the Irish to perennially win 10 or more games, making them playoff regulars. Consider Notre Dame's 2025 schedule. Tell me the game in which the Irish will be the underdog. I don't see one.
Winning a national championship in this era, though, comes a lot easier with a standout quarterback and star wide receiver or two. Those two positions became the obvious difference in Notre Dame's national championship loss to Ohio State. For Freeman to be the next coach to win it all, he'll need a quarterback to emerge. Redshirt freshman CJ Carr, let's see what you got in that mended elbow.
4. Kalen DeBoer (Alabama)
DeBoer misfired in his first season replacing Saban. No sugar coating it. He certainly hasn't, acknowledging he failed to meet expectations. But, look here, Alabama signed the nation's No. 3-ranked recruiting class, and Miami transfer Isaiah Horton will upgrade the receiving corps. Experienced players fill the defense.
Alabama's national title bona fides hinge on its quarterback. Is Ty Simpson ready to be a starter after three years as a backup? How quickly will five-star signee Keelon Russell develop? DeBoer reunited with Ryan Grubb, his longtime consigliere. I don't doubt Grubb will be a coordinator upgrade, but he can't change the quarterback personnel. Either Simpson or Russell must be ready to shine by September.
3. Brian Kelly (LSU)
Did you get your digs in at Kelly, when LSU failed to make the playoff while Freeman rallied Notre Dame to the national championship game? Hope you enjoyed it, because Kelly loaded up for a chance at the last laugh. Kelly signed the nation's best transfer class. That haul includes top-rung defensive line and secondary additions, necessary personnel tasked with jumpstarting a defense that's been too feeble for too long.
The Tigers return the SEC's most proven quarterback, Garrett Nussmeier. They're set at receiver. A retooled offensive line must perform, but this is Kelly's best shot at a title since coming to LSU. The national title window slowly closes on Kelly, 63. It's not closed yet.
2. Dan Lanning (Oregon)
The combination of Lanning plus NIL at 'Nike U.' have been quite good for Oregon. The Ducks went 25-3 the past two seasons. Much like Day, this feels like a matter of when, not if, the 38-year-old Lanning will win a national championship.
No coach of a playoff-qualifying team signed a better transfer class than Lanning. He paired those additions with a top-five recruiting class. Oregon looks like a near lock for the playoff. Its national championship pursuit hinges on whether UCLA transfer Dante Moore, Oregon's backup quarterback last season, replicates the production of predecessors Dillon Gabriel and Bo Nix.
1. Steve Sarkisian (Texas)
Nobody better positioned himself to join the list of national champions than Sarkisian. Texas is back, folks. No more sarcasm in that statement after the Longhorns reached the College Football Playoff semifinals in consecutive seasons.
Like Day, Sarkisian magnetizes talent. Coaches who consistently build elite rosters – see Nick Saban, Kirby Smart – give themselves the most opportunities for a national championship. That brings us to Sarkisian. A recruiting maestro, he signed the nation's No. 1-ranked class to pair with an enviable roster led by quarterback Arch Manning.
Sarkisian proved himself an excellent quarterback developer. Add in Texas' NIL war chest, and Sarkisian positioned the Longhorns to be an annual contender. The possibility of an NFL return rests in the backdrop of Sarkisian's tenure, but, even if that happens, Sarkisian might deliver a national championship before he departs. Ohio State, Texas, Oregon and Georgia rank among the favorites to win this next national championship.
So, who will turn three into four? Sarkisian, Lanning, or … maybe no one, for a while.
Between Day, Smart and Swinney, they've got a chance to crowd out the contenders vying to join their exclusive club.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's national college football columnist. Email him at [e-mail] and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.