How does Matthew Schaefer compare to recent No. 1 NHL Draft picks? Scouts, execs weigh in
The first-overall pick in the NHL Draft is always highly anticipated. This article compares the last nine No. 1 picks with this year's top prospect, Matthew Schaefer, based on rankings from NHL scouts and executives. The idea of this article is to ask the evaluators to compare Schaefer to the other players at the time of their drafts, not incorporating how they have played since then. Six NHL scouts and executives were polled for this list. 1. Auston Matthews, 2016 (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Average ranking: 1.67
Range of votes: 1st – 2nd
Matthews consistently ranked at the top for the scouts, replacing Connor McDavid in this annual exercise for the top position. He was viewed as a potential franchise center due to his size, elite skill and shot. 2. Macklin Celebrini, 2024 (San Jose Sharks)
Average ranking: 2.83
Range of votes: 1st – 5th
While I try to use mostly the same scouts every year for this exercise, sometimes I have to change the voters. I say this because Celebrini was fifth last year, behind Matthews, Connor Bedard and Jack Hughes. This exercise is about how players were viewed at the time of the draft, and Celebrini was highly regarded for his all-around play, but some evaluators last season were worried about his offense in the NHL. The ones I polled this year were not, and most claim they always viewed him as having star offensive upside to go with great compete level. 3. Connor Bedard, 2023 (Chicago Blackhawks)
Average ranking: 3.33
Range of votes: 1st – 6th
Bedard was a consensus top pick in his draft, with a massive hype machine behind him after his dominant performances in the WHL and World Juniors. There were minor concerns on his size and lack of elite speed, but overall a ton of love for the player. His ranking reflects how high scouts were on the offense, but the variance reflects some uncertainty on the player. One NHL executive on why he put Celebrini over Bedard: 'I think Celebrini makes others better more often. He's a true center who you'll trust in more situations.' Another test in hindsight bias, as last year no evaluator placed him lower than third, but this year he got a fourth-, fifth- and sixth-place vote. 4. Jack Hughes, 2019 (New Jersey Devils)
Average ranking: 4.67
Range of votes: 3rd – 7th
Hughes had a monster draft season as the leading player on one of the very best U.S. NTDP teams ever. His combination of elite skating and skill excited scouts. The one who placed him seventh noted worries about his frame and how that would hold up in the playoffs. 5. Matthew Schaefer (2025 NHL Draft Eligible)
Average ranking: 4.83
Range of votes: 2nd – 7th
This year's top pick comes in right at the middle of the pack. Schaefer is a great skating defenseman with size and very good puck-moving ability. He missed most of the season due to mono in the fall and a broken clavicle he suffered at the World Juniors. When healthy, he dazzled at several major events such as the Hlinka Gretzky and CHL/NTDP series.
The executive who ranked Schaefer second thinks he could be a Norris-winning defenseman around whom you can build a contender. The scouts who ranked him lower had minor questions on his offensive upside, as well as the lack of data on him. 'He's a consensus No. 1 pick in part based on a handful of great international showings, but who knows how his season would have gone if he wasn't hurt all year,' said one scout. 6. Rasmus Dahlin, 2018 (Buffalo Sabres)
Average ranking: 5.33
Range of votes: 3rd – 8th
It's easy to forget the hype there was for Dahlin in 2018 and the lengthy highlight reel he piled up in Sweden. He's one of the most skilled defensemen I've seen. One NHL executive said at the time of his draft that they viewed Dahlin as an annual Norris contender. The exec who ranked him lower pointed to a worry at the time about how his style of play, an aggressive skill-driven defenseman, would translate to the NHL. 7. Owen Power, 2021 (Buffalo Sabres)
Average ranking: 7.00
Range of votes: 6th – 10th
The voters saw a drop off after Dahlin to the next group of players. Power was a very unsexy No. 1 pick. His assets were being a huge defenseman who could skate well and make legit offensive plays. That's an exciting package, but there was never anything truly 'special' about his toolkit, even if the scouts who had him highest thought he could be Victor Hedman if he truly hit. 8. Nico Hischier, 2017 (New Jersey Devils)
Average ranking: 7.83
Range of votes: 6th – 9th
Hischier was a well-liked player in his draft season who excited evaluators with his skill, hockey sense and all-around play. He wasn't considered the most dynamic forward you'll ever see taken at the top of the draft, though, which was reflected in the votes. 9. Alexis Lafrenière, 2020 (New York Rangers)
Average ranking: 8.00
Range of votes: 3rd – 10th
I appreciated the brutal honesty from the executive who put Lafrenière at No. 3, as he was very highly touted coming out of the QMJHL. His footspeed has held him back in the NHL to date, though, and was the main concern of evaluators for why they put him toward the bottom. 10. Juraj Slafkovský, 2022 (Montreal Canadiens)
Average ranking: 9.50
Range of votes: 8th – 10th
Slafkovský got beat up by the panelists a bit over his hockey sense, but keep in mind he's probably been better than some expected in the NHL. His draft season was up and down with great international showings but scouts didn't love him in Liiga.
(Photo: Dennis Pajot / Getty Images)
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