How Labour ended up taking on the Boriswave
Sir Keir Starmer, remarkably, has launched an immigration crackdown. Britain risks becoming an 'island of strangers' after the Tory 'one-nation experiment in open borders', he said on Monday. A Home Office white paper has introduced several measures which will supposedly bring the sky-high numbers down.
Most interestingly, the government will extend the required qualification period for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) – which grants migrants access to the welfare state and the ability to bring dependents – from five years residency in the UK to ten. On Wednesday it confirmed that this would apply retroactively. Which means that should this go through – there will be a public consultation – it can be expected to prevent the post-2021 migration surge known as the 'Boriswave' from automatically being granted permanent settlement in the next few years.
This is a hugely welcome and sensible move: if the Boriswave was a mistake, as it is widely agreed to be, there is no reason we should let it become permanent.
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Times
9 minutes ago
- Times
Fact check: how accurate are Rachel Reeves's spending figures?
'The chancellor's speech was full of numbers, few of them useful,' said Paul Johnson, the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Reeves's speech was political to the core — and that extended to her use of statistics. The chancellor appears to have used whichever numbers best suited her position, predominantly to inflate the scale of the government's spending plans. She used bigger, cumulative figures to highlight the scale of investments, rather than annual numbers, and cash increases stripped of their context. She also used Tory spending plans from before the election, which never came to pass, as the baseline for the biggest numbers in her speech. When it did not suit her she ignored the Tory spending plans. While none of the figures are technically inaccurate, economists argue that they are a statistical sleight of hand and that Reeves would be better off being consistent in her use of numbers. Spending going up The claim: The first number in Reeves's speech — bar her obligatory reference to the £22 billion 'black hole' she claims to have been left by the Tories — was the boast that 'in this spending review, total departmental budgets will grow by 2.3 per cent per year in real terms'. The reality: This figure includes spending announced at the budget last year, where there were some of the biggest increases. Over the next three years, total spending — combining day-to-day and investment — will increase by 1.5 per cent. Day-to-day spending will rise by 1.2 per cent a year for the rest of the parliament, about half the rate it rose this year. • More for public services The claim: Reeves promised to add '£190 billion more to the day-to-day running of our public services' as well as an extra £113 billion to public investment. The reality: This is a comparison with previous Conservative plans — dismissed as 'essentially fictitious' by Johnson — drawn up before the election to set a trap for Labour and allow Rishi Sunak to promise tax cuts. The Tory plans envisioned day-to-day spending rising by only about 1 per cent a year, and big cuts in capital spending. Reeves reversed these by changing her fiscal rules to allow more borrowing and is increasing infrastructure spending. But on an annual basis, capital spending will be £151.9 billion in 2029-30, £20.6 billion more in cash terms than it is now. Day-to-day spending will rise by £50.7 billion by 2028-29. More for schools The claim: Reeves said she was providing a 'cash uplift' of more than £4.5 billion for schools by the end of the spending review period. The reality: Context is everything. The Treasury concedes in the small print that the core budget for schools will rise by 0.4 per cent over the next three years. It says that when the cost of expanding free school meals is stripped out of the figures 'you get a real-terms freeze in the budget'. • Rachel Reeves is testing voters' patience … she needs results Backing innovation The claim: Reeves declared that the government was 'backing [Britain's] innovators, researchers and entrepreneurs' with research and development funding rising to a 'record high of £22 billion per year by the end of the spending review'. In a press release the government said that spending on research and development was £86 billion. The reality: Despite the rhetoric, this spending pledge represents a significant scaling back of the government's investment ambitions in research and development. The previous government pledged to hit the £22 billion target by this year and then delayed it until 2027. This target has now been put back even further to 2029. Indeed, the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology's budget will barely rise at all next year — far from the rhetoric of Reeves's statement. The £86 billion referred to in government press releases is a cumulative figure. More for social housing The claim: Reeves boasted of 'the biggest cash injection into social and affordable housing in 50 years', saying this would total £39 billion over ten years. The reality: The figure would represent almost a doubling of the £2.3 billion affordable homes programme. However, this spending ramps up slowly, reaching just £4 billion a year by the end of the parliament, leaving it to future chancellors to find ways of maintaining the spending. The overall capital budget for the housing ministry is actually flat over the spending review, with ministers relying on savings elsewhere — especially a reduction in the capital costs to councils of homes for asylum seekers. If these savings fail to materialise, painful decisions will be needed. NHS spending The claim: With health the big winner, Reeves boasted of 'an extra £29 billion per year for the day-to-day running of the health service' along with a 50 per cent boost in the NHS technology budget. The reality: The £29 billion figure is for NHS England specifically, and its budget will rise by 3 per cent a year in real terms, within a 2.8 per cent per year overall Department of Health rise. Capital budgets were increased last year but will be held flat for the rest of this parliament. Increasing technology spending further will therefore come at the cost of crumbling buildings or modern scanners and other kit. NHS leaders are already saying they will find it harder to shift to more modern, efficient treatments without extra equipment and buildings. Efficiency savings The claim: Reeves said the government had carried out a zero-based review of all government spending that would make public services 'more efficient and more productive' and, according to the Treasury, save £13 billion a year by 2029. The reality: These savings are, to put it charitably, extremely hypothetical and in some cases seem wildly optimistic. The NHS, the government thinks, will save nearly £9 billion from higher productivity — despite the fact that the health service has got less rather than more productive since Covid. And the culture department thinks it will save £9 million from 'digital reform' — despite the fact that the MoD, which is a much larger organisation, only thinks it can save £11 million. Overall the savings appear, at best, to be highly aspirational. But if they are not met, it will have a real-world impact on the amount of money the government has for public services.
Daily Mail
16 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Labour faces backlash after taking credit for Bank of England's interest rate cuts
The Government came under fire last night after seeking to take credit for interest rate cuts in the UK. Rachel Reeves used her spending review to claim her policies have 'helped support four cuts in interest rates ' by the Bank of England since the election. It echoed similar comments from Sir Keir Starmer at Prime Minister's Questions just minutes earlier. But they faced a backlash from economists. Simon French, chief economist at City broker Panmure Liberum, said that Labour's spending may have led to higher interest rates. Describing himself as 'uncomfortable with this line from the Chancellor that fiscal policy has supported cutting UK interest rates four times', he said: 'Basic economics would have it that looser fiscal policy necessitates tighter monetary policy, all else being equal.' The former Bank of England rate-setter Andrew Sentance said French's analysis was 'absolutely right' and suggested that the Bank 'has been over-hasty in cutting rates'. And Julian Jessop, of the Institute of Economic Affairs, noted that while Starmer 'is still trying to claim credit for four interest rate cuts', the European Central Bank 'has cut interest rates eight times in the past year'. The Bank's monetary policy committee is independent and Government ministers have no say in its interest rate decisions.
The Independent
22 minutes ago
- The Independent
UK agrees to check-free land border for Gibraltar but EU controls for flights
The UK has reached a deal with the EU over Gibraltar's border with Spain that will allow travellers to cross by land without checks. The agreement on a 'fluid border' clears the way to finalise a post-Brexit deal on the territory with the EU. But those flying into Gibraltar from the UK will face one check from Gibraltarian officials and another by the Spanish on behalf of the EU. This is because the land border will allow those arriving by air access to the European Schengen free travel area unchecked once they are in Gibraltar. The UK and Gibraltar insisted the changes would not affect the British overseas territory's sovereignty. The airport will operate under a model similar to London's St Pancras station, where passengers pass through both UK and French passport checks to board international trains. Goods and customs checks will also eventually be removed in both directions under the agreement. The move could also see airlines start to add flights to Gibraltar from countries other than the UK in a boost to tourism. Officials say a hard border would have been introduced under the EU's incoming exit and entry control system if no deal was reached, causing delays for some 15,000 people who cross the border every day as every individual passport was checked. Talks on rules governing the border have been ongoing since Britain left the European Union in 2020. Foreign Secretary David Lammy said the previous Tory government left behind a situation that 'put Gibraltar's economy and way of life under threat'. He said the agreement was a 'breakthrough' after years of uncertainty. He said: 'Alongside the government of Gibraltar, we have reached an agreement which protects British sovereignty, supports Gibraltar's economy and allows businesses to plan for the long-term once again. 'I thank the chief minister and his government for their tireless dedication throughout the negotiations. The UK's commitment to Gibraltar remains as solid as The Rock itself.' Spanish foreign minister Jose Albares said the deal marked 'a new beginning' in the relationship between the UK and Spain. He said that Spain 'will guarantee free movement of people and goods', adding that Gibraltar would now be linked to the Schengen Area with Spanish authorities controlling entry and exit. President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the deal. In a post on X, she said: 'It safeguards the integrity of Schengen and the single market, while ensuring stability, legal certainty and prosperity for the region.' Gibraltar's chief minister Fabian Picardo said the deal would 'protect future generations of British Gibraltarians and does not in any way affect our British sovereignty'. 'Now is the time to look beyond the arguments of the past and towards a time of renewed co-operation and understanding. Now the deal is done, it's time to finalise the treaty,' he said. On Wednesday evening, Sir Keir Starmer spoke with Mr Picardo and thanked him for 'his years of hard work, commitment, and leadership to reach an agreement'. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez also had a phone call with Sir Keir, and congratulated the British PM because 'his Government had succeeded where others had failed'. The Conservatives have said they will carefully review the UK's agreement with the EU on Gibraltar's border to see if it crosses any 'red lines' the party set out during its own negotiations when in government. Shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel said: 'Gibraltar is British, and given Labour's record of surrendering our territory and paying for the privilege, we will be reviewing carefully all the details of any agreement that is reached.' Mr Lammy held talks with Gibraltar's leaders, members of the opposition and the business community before leaving the British overseas territory to head to Brussels on Wednesday morning. Gibraltar was ceded to the UK by Spain in 1713 and the population is heavily in favour of remaining a British overseas territory. The last time it voted on a proposal to share sovereignty with Spain, in 2002, almost 99% of Gibraltarians rejected the move. Gibraltar also hosts an RAF base at its airport and an important naval facility.
