Congo's friends may force it to sit down and talk with Rwanda-backed rebels
Democratic Republic of Congo President Felix Tshisekedi has long ruled out dialogue with the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels rampaging through eastern parts of his country, but a string of defeats and waning regional support have forced him to think again.
Neighboring Angola caught many by surprise this week by saying Congo and M23 would sit down for direct talks in its capital on March 18, at a time when the rebels are still seizing territory rich with coltan, tantalum and other minerals.
Tshisekedi's government has so far not committed publicly, but three government sources told Reuters this week he was seriously considering sending a delegation.
With Congo's army and allied forces putting up weak resistance to the rebel advance, regional powers appear in agreement that dialogue is the only way forward, diplomats and analysts said.
'I haven't talked to a single African country that says Kinshasa shouldn't talk to M23,' one senior diplomat said.
'The line of everyone is, 'How do you stop the fighting if you don't engage with them?''
One source said on Friday that government participation was a sure thing but that it was still too early to say who would represent Kinshasa in Luanda.
Other sources said the debate was still ongoing and that a final decision was not likely to be made until next week.
M23, for its part, said on Thursday it was demanding an unequivocal commitment from Tshisekedi to engage in talks.
Both sides said they had questions about the framework and how the Angola-hosted talks would comply with decisions from regional bodies attempting to resolve the conflict.
Southern and East African foreign and defense ministers are due to meet in Harare on Monday to discuss the push for a cessation of hostilities and political dialogue.
'Failed Approach'
M23 is backed by thousands of Rwandan troops, according to U.N. experts, and their superior weaponry and equipment has allowed them to seize east Congo's two biggest cities since late January along with a host of smaller localities.
Rwanda denies providing arms and troops to M23, and says its forces are acting in self-defense against the Congolese army and militias hostile to Kigali.
Sitting down with M23 would likely be deeply unpopular in Kinshasa, especially after Tshisekedi's repeated vows never to do so.
But it would amount to an acknowledgment that Tshisekedi's pursuit of a military solution has 'failed', said Congolese analyst Bob Kabamba of the University of Liege in Belgium.
'Kinshasa's position of dialogue is understandable because it finds itself stuck, thinking that the (rebel alliance) must not reach a critical threshold,' he said.
Congo's neighbor Angola may have made a similar calculation, wary of being drawn into a larger-scale regional war reminiscent of those that killed millions in the 1990s and early 2000s.
'Angola has clearly decided that it is necessary to intervene to prevent the advance of the M23 towards the west of the DRC,' said Stephanie Wolters, a Congo analyst with South Africa's Institute for Security Studies.
The lack of faith in Tshisekedi's ability to turn the tide militarily was also seen this week in Southern African leaders' approval of the 'phased withdrawal' of a regional deployment known as SAMIDRC that had a mandate to fight rebels.
Although the deployment was too weak to mean much in the fight against M23, its presence was an important sign of regional support for Congo, Wolters said, making its departure a 'significant blow'.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Scottish Sun
10 hours ago
- Scottish Sun
Five terrifying ways enemies would hit Britain if it goes to war laid bare in official report
Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) BRITAIN would get blitzed with long-range drones, ballistic and cruise missiles if it had to fight a war this year. A landmark Strategic Defence Review set out five 'methods of attack' the UK should expect if it was forced into state-on-state conflict. Sign up for the Politics newsletter Sign up 11 The test firing of an ICBM belonging to Russia's nuclear deterrence forces Credit: Alamy 11 A drone is seen during a Russian aerial strike in Kyiv Credit: Reuters 11 Everything from oil rigs and subsea cables to satellites and merchant ships would also face cyber attacks Credit: Getty 11 Keir Starmer warned that 'a step change in the threats we face demands a step-change in British defence to meet them' Credit: PA These five methods are: Attacks on the armed forces in the UK and on overseas bases Air and missile attacks from long range drones, cruise and ballistic missiles targeting military infrastructure and vital national infrastructure Increased cyber attacks Attempts to disrupt the UK economy - especially the industry that supports the armed forces - through cyber attacks, intercepting shipping trade and attacks on space-based infrastructure Efforts to manipulate information and undermine social cohesion and political will Bases, ports and airfields in Britain and around the world be the first to get bombarded. And everything from oil rigs and subsea cables to satellites and merchant ships would also face cyber attacks and sabotage. The dossier warned: 'Based on the current way of war, if the UK were to fight a state-on-state war as part of Nato in 2025, it could expect to be subject to some or all of the following methods of attack: 'Attacks on the armed forces in the UK and overseas bases." Major bases would include the Navy's three main ports at Portsmouth, Plymouth and Clyde as well as outposts around the world, such as the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean and RAF Akoritiri in Cyprus. The report also warned of: 'Air and missile attack from long-rage drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, targeting military infrastructure and critical national infrastructure in the UK.' The UK has no land based missile defence systems and relies on its six Royal Navy destroyers to intercept ballistic or hypersonic missile which Russia has used to blitz Ukraine. Strategic Defence Review: Five Key Defence Pledges Up to 12 new nuclear-powered submarines to be built under the Aukust pact £15bn investment in the UK's nuclear warhead programme to maintain and modernise the deterrent New Cyber Command to be established, with £1 billion invested in digital warfare capabilities Up to 7,000 UK-built long-range weapons to be purchased, supporting 800 defence jobs More than £1.5bn in extra funding to repair and renew armed forces housing But the government has pledged to invest £1bn in a new Iron Dome-style defence system to 'protect the homeland'. Other attacks in an all out war would include 'increased sabotage and cyber-attacks affecting on and offshore critical national infrastructure.' 11 A Russian Air Force jet carries a high-precision hypersonic aero-ballistic missile Credit: AP 11 Air and missile attack from long-rage drones are also a risk Credit: Getty 11 Devonport Royal Navy maintenance depot at HMS Drake, Plymouth Credit: Alamy 11 HMS Vanguard, Britain's first Trident submarine, enters its base on the River Clyde, Scotland Credit: PA The report warns Britain is already 'under daily attack' in the so-called grey zone, which includes cyber hacks and sabotage 'beneath the threshold of war'. It also warned the citizens to expect 'attempts to disrupt the UK economy, especially the industry that supports the armed forces, including through cyber attack, the interdiction of maritime trade, and attacks on space-based critical national infrastructure'. Finally, it warned the UK would face a massive propaganda blitz designed 'to manipulate information and undermine social cohesion and political will.' The review sets out plans to grow the Army, renew Britain's nukes and recruit up to 250,000 cadets to get the country ready for 'whole of society approach' to defence and resilience. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer warned that, 'a step change in the threats we face demands a step-change in British defence to meet them'. He added: 'We need to see the biggest shift in mindset in my lifetime to put security and defence front and centre – to make it the fundamental organising principle of government.' Vital War Chest AFTER years of Whitehall deciding that defending the nation didn't matter, the Government is right to now increase spending as part of today's Strategic Defence Review. Given massive global uncertainty, the UK should be on a war footing. Yet there are concerns that the review doesn't go far enough. There is still doubt over whether or when Labour will spend three per cent of GDP on defence. Planned submarines and weapons factories are also still decades away. Then there's Britain's appalling record on procurement which has wasted billions on dud kit. There is still a great deal more for this Government to do. 11 Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, 2024 Credit: EPA 11 Bases, ports and airfields in Britain and around the world be the first to get bombarded Credit: Neil Hope
New Statesman
10 hours ago
- New Statesman
Poland has chosen the politics of reaction
Photo byThe victory of the nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki in the Polish presidential election by a mere 0.9 per cent is proof of a country cleaved in two. But, though Polish politics is too frequently read through stereotype in the Anglophone media, this result has recognisable meaning: a narrow victory for the reactionary right. Nawrocki's term is due to start on 6 August 2025. And most of his support came from south-east Poland, and in the voivodeships (the 16 provinces the country is divided into) that fall by the Ukrainian and Belarusian borders. Nawrocki's rival, the Civil Coalition party's Rafal Trzaskowski, won the majority of the vote in 10 voivodeships in comparison to Nawrocki's six. But the Law and Justice-backed Nawrocki won a landslide victory in the Subcarpathian voivodeship, the country's most south-easterly point, tipping the scales. Some smaller towns in the Lublin and Lesser Poland voivodeships bordering Subcarpathia, such as Godziszów and Chrzanów, cast over 94 per cent of their votes for Nawrocki. Even within these areas though, the fierce split between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki could be felt, dividing neighbouring towns and villages. So what will this mean for the electorate? Nawrocki's marginal win came as a surprise to the Polish media, especially amid his numerous alleged scandals – including participating in the 2009 football brawl in Gdansk, accusations of fraud and of connections to underworld figures and the world of prostitution – all of which he has denied. Yet, it seems these accusations did not taint his image as the 'embodiment of traditional, patriotic values', as he is often described by his supporters. The traditional values in question are characterised by opposition towards LGBTQIA+ visibility, abortion and immigration. Nawrocki's lack of political experience combined with his positions on cultural issues could have a destabilising effect on Poland's domestic politics and isolate millions of Polish citizens. Prime minister Donald Tusk's progressive reform programme will undoubtably be met by presidential vetoes, as was the case under the sitting president, Andrzej Duda. The advisory firm Colliers estimates that the cost of Nawrocki's campaign promises could surpass 50 billion zloty (£1bn) in a country which already operates at a multi-billion-pound deficit. The Nawrocki win could also potentially limit access to EU funds, which will have a drastic impact on the economy. Currently, Nawrocki heads the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), a Polish state research institute in charge of education and archives which has promoted nationalist historical narratives. The IPN also exercises investigative, prosecution and lustration powers within its two prosecution service components (in the former Eastern Bloc, lustration refers to the scrutinising of public officials for their past collaboration with the communist secret police). In 2018 the IPN adopted the wording of the Amendment to the Act of the Institute of National Remembrance to include 'protecting the reputation of the Republic of Poland and the Polish Nation'. The Amendment – since partly repealed – criminalised attributing responsibility for the Holocaust to Poland or the Polish nation and addressed crimes against 'Polish citizens' by 'Ukrainian nationalists'. Nawrocki's own nationalist efforts, including the toppling of monuments to the Soviet Red Army, has led him to being put on Russia's wanted list, as certain Russian outlets were quick to point out in their presidential coverage. Beyond Poland, Nawrocki's presidency can be expected to have a negative impact on international relations. His eight-point declaration to block Ukraine's accession to Nato could have an immense effect on the ongoing peace process (it also probably what swung Poland's Ukraine-bordering voters behind him), while his policies on energy could hinder the EU's climate change policies. Backed by Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán, Nawrocki's traditionalist agenda managed to give the Law and Justice-backed candidate a slight advantage, but it comes at a great cost. Poland could well be about to sacrifice its place as a key player on the European stage. And internally Nawrocki's victory represents an ongoing stand-off between two nations, one liberal and another traditionalist, which all of Europe can recognise. Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe [See also: The futility of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks] Related
Reuters
12 hours ago
- Reuters
Britain facing race to avoid $1 billion in EU carbon tax costs
LONDON/BRUSSELS, June 2 (Reuters) - Britain will struggle to link its carbon market to the EU's in just seven months, to avoid UK companies facing the bloc's carbon border tariff and annual bills around 800 million pounds ($1.08 billion) from next year, market experts have said. Billed as part of a "reset" in relations after Britain's 2016 exit from the European Union, the two sides announced last month they will link their carbon emissions trading systems by the end of the year. But neither side has set a timeframe or detailed the work that must be done to make this happen before January, when Europe's carbon border tax kicks in. "It's probably still likely to take many years before linkage takes effect. The earliest is 2028, but it's more likely to be 2029 or even 2030," said Ben Lee, senior emissions analyst at Energy Aspects. The UK government said a key upside of linking to the EU's carbon market, or emissions trading system (ETS), is to avoid businesses being hit by the EU's carbon border tariff - which, starting next year, will impose fees on the CO2 emissions associated with imports of steel, cement and other goods. The UK government said avoiding these costs would save 800 million pound a year. But EU officials say to get exempted from the carbon border levy, Britain would need to have linked its carbon market to the EU's. "Full linkage will take several years given the complexity of the process, purely from a technical perspective," ClearBlue carbon market analyst Yan Qin said, adding that an "optimistic" scenario could see the link forged in 2027. A spokesperson for the British government said it will seek to agree a carbon market link as soon as is feasible. "We will not provide a running commentary on the progress of negotiations," they said. To make a link happen, the UK needs to adjust its national rules for issuing carbon trading permits, bring its emissions permit auctions in line with EU rules, and change its national cap on how much companies covered by the carbon market can emit. That's not all. The EU and UK schemes are also not yet aligned on how many free CO2 permits they give industries. And the EU carbon market has a special "reserve" which adds or removes permits from the market to help stabilise prices. Britain's scheme currently lacks a "reserve", though it has a cost containment mechanism that can act as a ceiling on prices, something the EU scheme does not have. "Resolving the question of a supply adjustment mechanism will likely be one of the technical calibrations that will need to be in place before the two systems can link," said Veyt senior analyst Ingvild Sorhus. Some businesses argue these issues are technically straightforward to resolve. "With the right political will, an ETS linking agreement between the EU and UK could be signed within 6 months, and operational by 2028," said Alistair McGirr, Head of Policy and Advocacy at British energy firm SSE. Industry group Energy UK said linkage negotiations could conclude within a year - but that Britain should seek an exemption from the EU carbon border levy until the link is sealed, in case talks drag into 2026. "It is a question not of major political roadblocks, but primarily of technical processes ... I'm not saying these are small problems, but they are simply not intractable problems," Energy UK Policy Director Adam Berman said, of the changes needed to allow the link. The UK plans to launch its own carbon border tariff a year later, in 2027. Brussels may be in less of a hurry. Britain's carbon market is less than a tenth of the size of the EU's, so a link would see British businesses gain access to a much more liquid market. The upside for the EU is less clear - although EU officials cite the bloc's aim to expand carbon pricing internationally, to ensure as many countries as possible put a price on greenhouse gas emissions. Companies also say the move would avoiding competitive distortions and reduce costs for both EU and UK consumers. Pascal Canfin, a French lawmaker in the European Parliament, said the upsides for Britain were more obvious than for the EU. "It's a political move," said Canfin, of the EU's motivation. "The UK was within [the EU] ETS before. I mean, it's not such a big deal to have it again." ($1 = 0.7387 pounds)
